Out to the west, in a distant desert and beneath the watch of an outdated coach, the solar might quickly set on the Mac Jones period.
Team sources point out Jones will begin the Patriots’ recreation at Las Vegas primarily as a result of their different choices — a second-year backup they minimize six weeks in the past and a third-string journeyman — are unfit. Before Bill Belichick introduced his choice Wednesday, members throughout the group doubted Jones would get one other shot.
“How can he?” one supply requested Monday afternoon.
Instead, Jones will face Josh McDaniels, who facilitated his speedy growth as a rookie and tortured him of their solely head-to-head assembly final yr. Since McDaniels left to turn out to be the Raiders head coach in January 2022, Jones has ranked among the many NFL’s worst quarterbacks by each metric.
He reached a profession nadir this month, struggling six turnovers, two benchings and one overarching query: how did we get right here?
In assessing Jones’ downfall, a number of league sources pinned blame on Jones and the group. Jones’ backers describe a mind-boggling failure to construct round a younger quarterback throughout an period the place profitable examples abound (Buffalo, Miami and Philadelphia, to call a number of). The Patriots failed to guard him, maximize the monetary flexibility afforded by his cost-controlled contract and preserve teaching continuity, they declare.
One league supply mentioned: “To play the hardest position in the league, and be cycled through three offensive coordinators and quarterback coaches in your first three years, you rarely see players in that position improve.”
“They never made a concerted effort to get true separators at wide receiver who can win 1-on-1,” an AFC professional scout added. “There have been a lot misses there in evaluation process, in my opinion.”
But detractors see Jones’ tape as affected by inexcusable errors impartial from his environment. Fundamental errors like poor footwork to dropping his eyes in opposition to stress, each of which Jones copped to this week. Some describe him as immature within the face of adversity, with one supply even utilizing the phrase “bratty.”
Jones, they are saying, is a participant whose best faults are usually not the bodily limitations which have been evident since he was a prospect, however his alleged strengths that maintain as an alternative the group again.
“He’s a panic player versus pressure,” a league supply mentioned. “And he turns the ball over.”
Another famous what number of “dumb mistakes” Jones makes for a quarterback who was touted for his intelligence.
Others, although, see a quarterback who makes an effort to attach with teammates outdoors of the locker room — “a normal human being” — who has earned respect with the hours he places in at Gillette Stadium; a sentiment constantly echoed by teammates over Jones’ two-plus seasons within the NFL.
“The personality clash narrative that’s going around seems a little overblown, in my opinion,” one supply mentioned. “(I) don’t really see any of those ‘issues’ on a day-to-day basis.”
The solely consensus seems to be how Jones is the face of the Patriots’ ongoing offensive failures. The Patriots have scored three factors of their final two video games and personal the NFL’s worst go offense and worst rush offense by Expected Points Added (EPA). In the phrases of Bill Belichick, they’re “starting over.”
In 2021, drafting Jones represented the alternative: an organizational dedication to operating offense their approach throughout an period dominated by cellular quarterbacks. The entrance workplace considered Jones as a pocket-bound passer with unspectacular arm expertise, whose accuracy, intelligence and anticipation may nonetheless deliver their system to life.
Whereas Tom Brady served because the engine and driver of that offense, Jones can be a cog in what they considered as a nonetheless functioning championship machine. But it wasn’t. And he wasn’t.
All Jones has demonstrated is he can’t elevate a group by himself, one thing the Patriots knew earlier than he tried to rejuvenate his profession in Year 3.
“We know Mac isn’t going to win for us. He needs to be comfortable,” a group supply instructed the Herald this summer time. “But we think we can win with him. We’ll see.”
What the Patriots noticed in 2021 is one thing the group hasn’t seen usually since. Jones calmly labored the controls of a top-10 offense and a playoff group, whereas authoring one of many best campaigns by a rookie quarterback in NFL historical past. Yet the Bills ended that season by thumping the Patriots 47-17 in a jarring Wild Card playoff recreation, the worst of the Belichick period.
A day later, Belichick acknowledged Buffalo might have pulled the masks off his solely postseason group with out Brady.
“Is that what we are, or is that a bad night?” he questioned to reporters. “We’ll see when we start playing again next year, I guess.”
As it stands now, all that yr appears to have revealed is the start of the tip.
What Mac bought mistaken
Two and a half years later, the Patriots’ analysis of Jones as a heady prospect who may play inside the confines of a system, restrict errors, make sharp choices earlier than the snap, and lead seems to have missed the mark.
More than that, inside confidence in him has waned.
After logging 32 profession begins, Jones is now making extra pricey choices than any NFL quarterback this season. He leads the league in Pro Football Focus’ turnover-worthy play price, with three of his seven turnovers leading to defensive scores.
Last yr, his decline was blamed on Belichick’s choice to call Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as lead offensive assistants. But Jones’ issues haven’t solely endured beneath new offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien, however worsened.
“I think there’s compounding issues,” a league supply mentioned. “Combination of coaching and talent. The biggest problem is the quarterback, though, and that makes everything harder.”
There was an assumption in media circles that Jones would play considerably higher this season based mostly purely on O’Brien changing Patricia and Judge. Inside the power, the Patriots weren’t fairly as satisfied.
In April, a group supply mentioned of Jones: “There’s definitely hope that he’ll improve. But I don’t think there’s a ton of confidence that he will. To be clear, I don’t think there’s doubt either. More just neutral expectations with a degree of hopefulness.”
Six months later, Jones’ completion share, success price and passer ranking have dipped, whereas his interception price skyrockets. He continues to soften beneath stress.
According to Sports Info. Solutions, Jones ranks lifeless final in whole EPA in opposition to the blitz. Last yr, he ranked sixth-worst. Opponents ship stress and/or crowd the center of the sphere, forcing Jones to throw outdoors, the place numbers point out he’s the least environment friendly quarterback within the league.
“(Offensive line) play has a lot to do with it,” one supply mentioned. “Also a little bit of the book being out on him now. That started down the stretch of 2021.”
As a rookie, Jones began that season 9-4, then misplaced 4 of his final 5 contests, together with the Buffalo blowout. He performed properly in a kind of video games, a 50-10 win over Urban Meyer’s Jaguars. In the opposite 4, he accomplished 57.9% of his passes with 5 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.
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Since then, Jones ranks thirty third out of 35 certified QBs in EPA per play, after rating 14th in 2021. His antics and perspective final yr — which included sideline outbursts, going over Belichick’s head and out of doors the group for assist — displeased teammates and coaches alike.
Still, the Patriots caught with Jones for 2023. And after Belichick opened the door to a quarterback competitors into the summer time, the Patriots waived backup Bailey Zappe out of coaching camp, thus handing keys once more to Jones. After a stop-and-start September, he is scored three factors and crashed twice in October.
Jones was requested Wednesday what he sees because the trigger for his decline since his stellar rookie season.
“I’m really focused on the positives,” he mentioned. “Like, all proper, if I get the ball out on time, my toes and my eyes are in the fitting spot, normally, it’s fairly good. So, that’s one thing that I’m attempting to give attention to. And my capacity to speak with the youthful guys on the group.
“Like, I’m not necessarily a younger guy anymore. It’s my third year, and I’ve got to start playing like that and communicating like that.”
What the Patriots bought mistaken
In February 2022, weeks after Belichick brazenly contemplated the legitimacy of his playoff group, the Patriots accomplished a full examination of their roster.
They believed they weren’t removed from contending.
That offseason, operating again/huge receiver Ty Montgomery and ex-Dolphins wideout DeVante Parker represented their solely exterior additions to the offense. A yr later, after overseeing a dysfunctional 8-9 group and the worst offense of his Patriots tenure, Belichick signed swing tackles Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson, supersized slot receiver/tight finish Mike Gesicki and broken items in JuJu Smith-Schuster, whereas No. 1 receiver Jakobi Meyers walked away for much less.
Belichick, league sources say, has didn’t adapt in a post-Brady world, regardless of having extra cap room than all however a half-dozen groups coming into free company final yr. The Patriots at the moment have the third-cheapest roster within the league by 2023 money spending, per Over the Cap.
“I don’t think (Belichick) ever felt like you had to go spend on the offensive side of the ball because of how good Tom was,” one supply mentioned.
In July, the Patriots declined to make use of their money and cap to land All-Pro wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who in Tennessee now has extra receiving yards than any participant on their roster. In the spring, they refused to land high free-agent offensive tackles like Orlando Brown Jr., Mike McGlinchey or Jawaan Taylor, who may have prevented Jones from changing into probably the most pressured quarterbacks within the league.
“They haven’t done anything to address the right tackle position. They bring Trent Brown back every year, a player who hits free agency and no one wants to pay. I don’t know what their plan was,” a league supply mentioned. “Calvin Anderson, he’s never really been good. And they spent five million dollars on Riley Reiff, who’s 34 and has been on three teams in three years for a reason.”
Last week in opposition to the Saints, Reiff took all of his snaps at guard, whereas Anderson was a wholesome scratch. The two gamers represented half-measures by the Patriots, whom the remainder of the league believed had been greater than an enormous swing or two away from contending once more.
In December 2022, a front-office govt, whose group had lately studied the Patriots, instructed the Herald the expertise hole was too huge for them to leap again into the playoff race in a single offseason.
“No,” the manager mentioned of contending once more. “Not to get to a expertise degree that’s going to match and permit them to go toe for toe with the higher echelon of the AFC. Talent-wise, I don’t suppose they’re that shut.”
The Patriots are actually scheduled to have extra cap area than any NFL group in 2024 and 2025 and rank among the many most cost-effective groups by money spending. It’s unclear to some inside and out of doors the group why Belichick retains his powder dry, apart from conducting enterprise as he all the time has.
According to a league supply, a part of that enterprise features a entrance workplace that evaluates gamers nearly totally with out the help of analytics. GPS monitoring knowledge, akin to publicly out there data from Next Gen Stats, would have tipped them off {that a} receiver like Parker generates the least separation within the league. Poor separation at the moment plagues the entire group’s receivers, besides sixth-round rookie Demario Douglas, who’s accountable for Jones’ longest acquire of the season.
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Prior to Sunday’s loss to the Saints, Patriots receivers averaged the least separation within the league, per Next Gen Stats. No shock: the Patriots rank lifeless final in EPA and passer ranking in opposition to man-to-man protection.
“Nobody can get open, so everything has to be schemed,” a group supply mentioned. “That’s a hard way to live.”
While the 6-foot-3 Parker serves as an efficient deep-ball, contested specialist, that fashion would not optimize Jones’ skills. This season, the Patriots have tried a league-high 27 passes that traveled 20 or extra yards by the air. They have accomplished simply 5 of these throws and rank lifeless final in deep passing by EPA.
Last season, Jones led the league in common depth of goal and interceptions previous to struggling a excessive ankle sprain in Week 3. Once he returned, the passing recreation moved nearer to the road of scrimmage, and he protected the ball higher. The Patriots offense then was a hybrid Belichick and Patricia concocted by mushing the outdated system with components of the Rams offense they’d studied after Los Angeles received Super Bowl LVI.
The writing and re-writing of that playbook lasted till the eve of coaching camp, when the employees needed to collect two weeks later for what a supply described as a “Come to Jesus” assembly following one disastrous apply. As the offensive line coach, Patricia’s new go safety guidelines left Jones beneath fixed waves of stress. That was among the many first dominos to fall in probably the most dysfunctional season of the Belichick period.
Bad habits started to fester for Jones, who turned spooked on the first signal of a closing go rusher. Unsurprisingly, Jones completed because the NFL’s second-worst starter beneath stress, per PFF grades. This season, the Patriots’ go safety ranks twenty ninth at Pro Football Focus and thirtieth by ESPN’s pass-block win price.
Jones is crumpling once more.
“I think it really comes down to the ability to provide him a clean pocket and bring a little more creativity, schematically, that his skill set probably needs to be successful at this level,” one supply mentioned. “I think he’s tried to play outside of himself too often and that only highlights the other issues.”
Among these points: the failure to encompass Jones with different high-end draft picks.
The Patriots have already parted with 2018 first-round offensive sort out Isaiah Wynn and operating again Sony Michel. N’Keal Harry, a 2019 first-round choose and famously the one first-round receiver Belichick has ever drafted, was an apparent bust by his second season. Left guard Cole Strange is at the moment in a battle for his beginning job with a fifth-round rookie, whereas 2022 second-round receiver Tyquan Thornton has caught fewer than half his profession targets and has but to make his 2023 debut.
Where they go from right here
If Zappe had a traditional summer time, the choice to interchange Jones can be straightforward.
But Zappe, who not solely bought minimize this summer time however was handed over by the 31 different groups on waivers, cannot minimize it. The 2022 fourth-round choose owns a league-worst 41.2% adjusted completion price, per PFF, going 7-of-18 for 79 yards this season.
One supply mentioned Zappe’s offseason was a “rough transition to the new offense.” Another supply mentioned Zappe’s efficiency in coaching camp and the preseason “wasn’t good enough on multiple levels.” A 3rd mentioned it “stunk.”
The Patriots signed quarterback Will Grier to compete with Zappe for the backup job, however Belichick defined final week how tough it’s for a participant to maneuver up the depth chart in-season with restricted apply reps. The starter receives most of a group’s apply reps, and since Zappe is aware of the offense higher than Grier, he stays Plan A in emergency conditions.
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Belichick additionally didn’t appear in a rush to maneuver Grier up the depth chart when requested final week.
Undrafted rookie Malik Cunningham continues to work on the apply squad, however O’Brien revealed this week that he is spent most of his apply time at huge receiver. It’s extraordinarily unlikely that Cunningham, a university quarterback at Louisville who’s transitioning to wideout, would obtain a full share of snaps at quarterback any time quickly, however may execute choice runs in a small bundle or close to the aim line.
The Patriots gave Cunningham extra reps at quarterback throughout coaching camp to see if he may function the group’s third quarterback. He orchestrated a formidable drive within the preseason opener in opposition to Houston, however the Patriots’ flurry of quarterback transactions since then suggests they don’t view him as a viable choice beneath heart.
So, it’s Jones’ job to lose. And no less than one AFC professional scout nonetheless believes within the Patriots’ starter.
“To be honest with you, I’m still expecting them to turn it around because he is a good quarterback,” he mentioned.
Looking even additional out, it appears ill-advised for the Patriots to select up Jones’ fifth-year choice this offseason. If they refuse, Jones would turn out to be a free agent after the 2024 season if an extension is not reached first. The Patriots would then be in search of a brand new quarterback of the longer term, whether or not that comes by the draft, free company or a commerce.
Comments O’Brien made this week recommend that the group isn’t wanting that far forward, although.
“There’s a lot of season left,” O’Brien mentioned Tuesday. “You know, there’s a lot of season left and there’s always obituaries being written. But you know, there’s a lot of football to be played. So let’s see if we can get better.”
Based on Jones’ free fall during the last 21 months, it could take a historic rebound for the 2023 Patriots to keep away from hitting the loss of life notices, and their quarterback to land on his toes.
Source: www.bostonherald.com