Once left for useless at 2-7, the Chicago Bears have stoked long-shot playoff hopes with three wins of their final 4 video games, together with two in a row.
Before they attempt to make it three straight Sunday in Cleveland, Brad Biggs gauges the playoff situations and solutions a slew of different questions in his weekly Bears mailbag.
You’ve been fairly clear together with your ideas on Justin Fields’ future with the Bears. Assuming you’re appropriate and the Bears commerce him away (respectfully, I hope they don’t!), what would you anticipate that timeline wanting like? Is this a transfer that might possible happen in March or may it stretch out right down to the wire? — Vince R.
I’m not precisely positive what you imply by “the wire,” however I might think about in the event that they determine to maneuver on from Fields, they would like to have a 2024 draft choose in return. That may occur in March after the brand new league yr begins, or it could possibly be a transfer made throughout the draft. The timing would rely upon a handful of things, together with what number of groups is likely to be . In this state of affairs, some groups might need Fields as a Plan B if they will’t get a quarterback they want within the draft. Some is likely to be contemplating different veteran choices as properly. There are plenty of shifting elements.
What may a return bundle for Fields seem like? Again, that might rely upon a few components, together with what number of groups are concerned. If the Bears can play a number of groups off one another, perhaps they might push the value up a little bit bit. In 2021 the New York Jets traded Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers for 3 draft picks. (Are you sensing a development right here? The Panthers make unhealthy trades.) The Jets acquired a sixth-round choose in 2021 and second- and fourth-round picks in 2022. A bundle much like that most likely could be a best-case state of affairs for Fields. I don’t consider the Bears would have the ability to get a first-round choose in return in the event that they choose to commerce him, however you by no means know.
It’s not a given the Bears will transfer on from Fields, however as you say, I’ve been in line with my opinion on how this may play out, whereas additionally reminding everybody that weekly referendums don’t do a complete lot of fine past selling dialogue.
NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah was requested about Fields’ future Sunday earlier than the Bears gained, and he framed it this manner:
“I use the phrase ‘the confetti test,’” Jeremiah stated. “Can you close your eyes and imagine him as a quarterback on the podium with the confetti falling that you’ve just won a world championship? I don’t know that he’s shown you enough to give you that. To me, you look at this draft — and we’ll get into the names over the next few months — but you’ve got a chance to, in my opinion, get better, younger, cheaper at that position and you still possess the fifth pick as of right now as well to address some other needs.”
Lot of speak in regards to the Bears, not way back 2-7, now being within the playoff hunt? How reasonable is that this? — Tom F., Elburn
It’s an extended shot but it surely has fueled optimism within the locker room and created some pleasure for the fan base, and in mid-December, that’s an excellent factor. Thirty of the NFL’s 32 groups stay alive for a playoff spot, which is simply what the league hopes for and a results of the expanded 14-team playoff system. The Bears and New York Giants are 5-8, proper behind a bunch of 5 6-7 groups for the seventh and ultimate NFC playoff spot. That’s plenty of visitors.
The Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints are 6-7. Tiebreakers get sophisticated, particularly if three or extra groups are concerned, and with 4 video games remaining, plenty of motion is feasible. The method the Bears have been enjoying, they need to have a shot to win all of their remaining video games: on the Cleveland Browns, residence in opposition to the Arizona Cardinals and Falcons and on the Packers. They have head-to-head losses to the Packers and Saints.
According to the New York Times’ interactive playoff simulator, the Bears have an 8% likelihood to achieve the playoffs. A win over the Browns on Sunday would enhance their odds to 11%. If the Bears win out and end 9-8, they’ve a 62% likelihood. That’s with out setting outcomes for different video games, but it surely exhibits you they’re nonetheless not a shoo-in in the event that they run the desk.
If you’re serious about scoreboard watching this week, listed below are outcomes you must root for:
- Bengals over Vikings
- Broncos over Lions
- Buccaneers over Packers
- Panthers over Falcons
- Giants over Saints
- Commanders over Rams
- Eagles over Seahawks
Let’s say the Bears win their ultimate 4 video games and these seven outcomes happen (the percentages on this parlay could be via the roof). In that case the simulator provides the Bears a 98% likelihood of creating the playoffs.
You may get misplaced within the playoff simulator all day. The backside line is the Bears must play high quality soccer for a very good stretch. If they will try this, you must really feel higher about how issues arrange for 2024 they usually’re going to have a shot.
Will Matt Eberflus ever complain in regards to the late hits Justin Fields takes? — @mabdacuma
This is a recurring query after Fields will get contacted by defenders, often on working performs when he slides. You noticed it occur in Sunday’s win over the Lions when linebacker Jack Campbell hit Fields when he was already on the bottom. You noticed it Monday evening within the New York Giants’ win when quarterback Tommy DeVito slid and was hit by a Packers defender. Giants coach Brian Daboll went nuts on the sideline, and it wasn’t onerous to learn his lips and see language not appropriate for publication.
It’s a fantastic line for officers to find out what’s a authorized hit and what crosses the road, and followers need to see a honked-off coach when successful is questionable. I get it. That’s not essentially Eberflus’ fashion, and he’s not the type of man who needs to rail on officiating to reporters and put himself in jeopardy of being fined by the league. I can’t blame him in that regard.
I can promise you Eberflus is doing two issues which might be extra significant than ripping officiating to the press. First, he and his employees are working officers earlier than video games. This is normal protocol. “Hey, we’ve seen No. 53 with some questionable hits on quarterbacks the last few weeks. Be on the lookout for that.” Coaches are continually working officers for calls, and this begins pregame with stuff they’ve seen in scouting. “Hey, our QB has taken some hits lately that have crossed the line. I need to make sure he’s protected today.”
Second, Eberflus is reaching out to the league workplace weekly when he thinks a name was missed. That might be instructional. Sometimes the league admits a name was missed. Sometimes the league explains why a flag wasn’t thrown. Either method, the Bears get an in depth response explaining how the play was evaluated upon evaluate.
“I’m always in their ear about that because protecting the quarterbacks in this league is big,” Eberflus stated Monday. “Those guys are the league, so it’s important that we do that and we continue to do that. If you have a guy that’s a runner and he slides down like that, we’ve got to protect him.”
Just as a result of Eberflus isn’t channeling his inside Ditka and offering the type of sound chunk you’d hear on sports activities speak radio for a whole week doesn’t imply he’s not making his displeasure recognized in additional significant channels.
Have Darnell Mooney’s brokers thrown out a quantity? Is he a positive free agent and gone after the yr? — @hubrogers
Mooney doesn’t have rather a lot to barter off of this season when it comes to productive numbers, however I feel the Bears consider in him and perceive what he’s able to doing with elevated alternatives. The Bears want to think about which route they need to take at extensive receiver within the offseason. Do they need to faucet right into a terrific draft class for receivers?
From Mooney’s standpoint, why remove 31 different groups from bidding by speaking a few take care of the Bears now? Four regular-season video games stay, after which he can wait till March and see what {the marketplace} appears to be like like. Maybe the Bears would make a proposal that’s near what’s obtainable for him in free company. But he could be good to search out out, wouldn’t he?
Do you suppose the Bears would possibly lengthen Jaylon Johnson and/or Cairo Santos earlier than the top of the season? — @jtbarczak
General supervisor Ryan Poles appeared to point after the commerce deadline that Johnson’s camp was intent on enjoying out the season. Survey the NFL for lengthy sufficient and also you be taught by no means to say by no means. But I’m unsure what would inspire Johnson to signal a contract now, so near reaching free company. Unless he’s provided nearly precisely what he needs, why not play out the season after which see if the Bears need to use the franchise or transition tag to maintain him?
Overthecap.com estimates the franchise tag for cornerbacks in 2024 can be $18.4 million and the transition tag can be $15.9 million. Most of the time, groups use a tag to create extra time and area for negotiations; in any other case, they’ve a participant they need enjoying on one other expiring contract. We’ll need to see if the Bears and Johnson have an enormous shock the subsequent few weeks.
I may see the Bears attempting to get an extension finished with Santos. I feel it could take a strong supply as a result of Santos in any other case may discover {the marketplace}. There’s nearly no likelihood the Bears would tag him (estimated $5.8 million for the franchise tag and $5.3 million for the transition tag). If they did, I’m betting he would run, not stroll, to signal that provide and return it instantly. He’s due a elevate as he nears completion of a three-year, $9 million contract.
Given your expertise, how shocked are you within the area of some weeks, within the minds of followers, Matt Eberflus has gone from 100% gone after this season to presumably staying, one thing followers now could also be supporting? — @jpoch1983
It’s a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world we’re in. My guess is a number of the loudest who have been talking out in opposition to Eberflus when the group was 2-7 after the Nov. 5 loss in New Orleans are a number of the loudest now about his potential return for a 3rd season. Some people similar to to yell.
The Bears will decide on the longer term after the completion of two full seasons, and the improved play of late on either side of the ball provides Eberflus and his employees an opportunity.
Why are the Bears recently selecting to take the ball in the event that they win the toss as an alternative of the standard deferring till the second half? Are they attempting to play extra from the lead earlier to allow them to stick with their run recreation longer? — @noah_booty
The Bears elected to obtain the opening kickoff the final 4 occasions they gained the coin toss, and they’re 3-1 in these video games with an opening-drive landing in three of them. Matt Eberflus goes in opposition to what has turn into conventional technique, as most groups elect to defer after they win the toss, hoping they will rating late within the second quarter after which double up with factors on the primary sequence of the third quarter to swing momentum.
Why is Eberflus zigging when most groups are zagging? The Bears really feel fairly good about how their offense produces with coordinator Luke Getsy’s scripted performs to open the sport. They have 5 touchdowns on their first possession (not essentially the primary sequence of the sport), which is tied for fifth within the league. The San Francisco 49ers are tops with eight, and the Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens all have six.
I don’t suppose it has something to do with the working recreation. The concept is that they suppose they will get some early momentum and set the tone. Eberflus deferred the primary two occasions the Bears gained the toss this season. The opponent has gained the toss in seven video games and deferred every time.
Why not hold Justin Fields for $6 million subsequent yr and draft a first-round quarterback and let him be taught, a la Aaron Rodgers/Jordan Love? Gives Fields another yr (perhaps with a brand new offensive coordinator) and that lets them kick the tires on a brand new man in follow and doubtless in a recreation or two given Fields’ damage historical past. — @carlso1
You’re making an apples-to-oranges comparability. What do Fields and Rodgers have in widespread in addition to the very fact each play quarterback? Rodgers is a four-time MVP who can be a first-ballot Hall of Fame choice. The Packers have been attempting to plot a future after Rodgers after they noticed a quarterback they actually favored fall into the again of the primary spherical in 2020.
The Bears could be choosing a quarterback at or close to the highest of the primary spherical as a result of they don’t consider Fields is their man for the lengthy haul. The Packers felt like that they had the luxurious of grabbing a quarterback and persevering with to win with Rodgers when some thought they need to have chosen a participant who may assist them instantly.
Any likelihood they’d herald a brand new punter? When watching video games, it’s outstanding to see the talent-level distinction between opposing punters and Trenton Gill. Starting subject place issues and it could be nice if they might get somebody extra constant. Odds they add one this offseason? — @shootermcconlon
The Bears have struggled within the punting recreation this season, and Gill ranks final within the league amongst qualifiers with a web common of 35.2 yards — 2.6 yards worse than Thirty first-place Sam Martin of the Buffalo Bills. That’s not all on Gill — it’s an 11-man operation — and the protection unit has had too many breakdowns. But he’s an enormous a part of the equation and it’s definitely one thing the group will need to have a look at within the offseason.
Gill’s gross common is 45.5 yards, tied for twenty fifth. As a rookie final yr he had a greater season with a 40.3 web common, which tied for twenty fifth. Soldier Field is likely one of the hardest stadiums within the league for punters, and it could be onerous for the Bears to have a punter within the prime third of the league with half of their residence video games alongside the lakefront.
Gill is younger and might enhance, however I’d need to guess they need to present him some legit competitors within the offseason, which they didn’t do final spring.
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Source: www.bostonherald.com