COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — Nikki Haley ‘s best-case scenario for her home state’s Republican main may be to do nicely sufficient to make the March 5 Super Tuesday slate considerably aggressive towards Donald Trump.
An upset in South Carolina, although, is a longshot in a state the place Republicans like their former governor however love the previous president.
Trump is trying to full an early state sweep after scoring massive wins in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. For Haley, who was twice elected South Carolina governor after which served as Trump’s U.N. ambassador, she has an opportunity to slim the margin and dampen Trump’s momentum.
Here’s a take a look at what to observe in Saturday’s main.
Can Donald Trump ship one other home-state knockout?
Nikki Haley circled Feb. 24 on her calendar months in the past. Her bid at all times hinged on constructing help by way of the primary three contests after which, as she informed voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, successful “my sweet state of South Carolina.”
She has recalibrated just lately. Rather than predict victory, she talks of how far she’s come and guarantees to proceed to Super Tuesday. “There were 14 candidates in this race,” she says. “I’ve defeated 12 of the fellas, and I have just one more to catch up to.”
Trump shrugs it off, predicting at a Fox News city corridor that he would win “bigly.”
“Everybody knows you can’t lose your home state,” he mentioned.
There’s a sure déjà vu to all of it that ought to give Haley pause. In 2016, three Trump rivals made home-turf primaries their factors of satisfaction. Two even gained: then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Trump sailed to the nomination anyway.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, in the meantime, caught round till his home-state main, which adopted Trump’s Super Tuesday domination. Rubio received thrashed — and that was earlier than Trump had made the Mar-a-Lago property in Palm Beach his everlasting residence.
Will independents and Democrats make the race shut — or nearer?
South Carolina has no get together registration, and Republicans maintain an open main. That means the one voters who usually are not eligible Saturday are the 126,000 or so who forged Democratic main ballots on Feb. 3. That’s considerably lower than the five hundred,000-plus who voted Democratic in 2020, that means loads of anti-Trump votes are theoretically accessible to Haley.
She has not explicitly requested Democrats to assist. But she steps proper as much as the road, telling each viewers about open main guidelines as she tries to construct a large coalition.
Haley touts her conservative credentials — enacting tax cuts and a voter identification regulation as governor — whereas recalling her bipartisan coordination to take down the Confederate banner from state Capitol grounds after a racist bloodbath at a Charleston church in 2015. She hammers the 77-year-old Trump as chaotic and washed-up however says she voted for him twice and was proud to function his U.N. ambassador. She calls herself “pro-life” however doesn’t “judge anyone who is pro-choice” and isn’t calling for a nationwide abortion ban.
That will be the solely rational technique to defeat Trump. It additionally may go away Haley and not using a pure base.
“She ran for governor as a tea party ally, and then she became one of the same good ole boys,” insisted Tim Foster, a Trump supporter and retired deputy sheriff from Spartanburg. Foster took Haley to job, particularly for taking down the Confederate battle flag: “She’s a very different person now than she was when I voted for her.”
Antjuan Seawright, a prime Democratic marketing campaign veteran, in the meantime, mentioned Democrats, particularly Black voters who anchor the get together in South Carolina, take Haley at her phrase when she scoffs at individuals calling her a “moderate.”
“We remember who Nikki Haley was,” Seawright mentioned, together with her positions on the battle flag earlier than the Charleston killings. “The only reason that flag came down is because of that tragedy … We aren’t saving her from Donald Trump. There’s an old saying that fits here: What goes around often comes around.”
Can Haley get Joe Biden’s Charleston-Columbia coalition?
If Haley makes it shut, the precincts to observe are in metro Charleston and better Columbia. Those are locations Trump didn’t carry within the 2016 main, regardless that he swept South Carolina’s 50 delegates. Columbia and its suburbs are dwelling to a various inhabitants, together with Black voters, college college students and college-educated whites — in brief, the coalition that helped President Joe Biden defeat Trump in 2020.
The Charleston space stands out for its moderates. When Biden gained the 2020 Democratic main in South Carolina, his help from Black voters received a lot of the consideration. But he drew important backing from Charleston’s white voters who hail from the ideological center of the voters that doesn’t align with Trump.
Call them Biden Republicans or Haley Democrats or some mixture. But if Haley goes to slim Trump’s margin, she wants an identical increase from the identical sorts of voters.
Do Trump’s feedback on veterans linger?
Trump requested just lately the place Haley’s husband has been on the marketing campaign path. The reply: Maj. Michael Haley is deployed with the South Carolina Army National Guard. He has served beforehand in Afghanistan.
Haley pounced on the remark. Retired Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, who already had been touring with Haley, made emotional pleas in his introductions of the candidate, recounting Trump’s historical past of mocking veterans, together with 2008 GOP nominee and Vietnam POW John McCain.
“That is not what presidents do. It’s absolutely wrong,” Bolduc mentioned of Trump, who took a number of medical and pupil deferments throughout Vietnam. “It tears us apart.”
The instant query is what number of South Carolina veterans react like Bob Crawford, who retired after 36 years within the Navy. “It’s an insult to every service member that’s on active duty, and he’s an insult to this country,” mentioned Crawford, who voted for Trump in 2016 and, reluctantly he mentioned, in 2020. Not this time, Crawford defined, after attending a Haley rally: “She convinced me.”
Regardless of whether or not Trump has any penalties in South Carolina, it’s value remembering the most recent barbs as a result of they offer contemporary materials to Biden and Democrats for the overall election marketing campaign.
“If it’s a rematch, I’ll vote for Biden,” Crawford mentioned.
How do Trump and Haley deal with the outcomes?
When Haley received to 43% of the vote in New Hampshire, she celebrated as if she had gained. And Trump received indignant, accusing her of mendacity to voters.
Trump has mellowed since. Asked in a Fox News city corridor Tuesday why Haley has not withdrawn, he was matter of reality: “I don’t think she knows how to get out.”
To be clear, Haley insists she is staying at the least by way of Super Tuesday, perhaps longer. “We don’t do coronations in America,” she has mentioned usually in South Carolina.
The tone Tuesday night time, if Haley certainly sticks round, may set the course for the remainder of the first marketing campaign, nevertheless lengthy it lasts.
Be cautious, although, of predictions about what an prolonged main means for the autumn. In 2016, Democratic runner-up Bernie Sanders waged a bitter battle with nominee Hillary Clinton nicely after she amassed an insurmountable delegate lead. Conventional knowledge says that helped price Clinton the election. Except amongst Republicans, second-place finisher Cruz additionally stayed in lengthy after the nomination was settled, and Cruz didn’t enthusiastically embrace Trump, who nonetheless finally defeated Clinton.
In 2020, Biden pulled away from different Democrats in March however nonetheless confronted loads of skeptics inside his get together, particularly on his left flank. Trump, then the incumbent, had no main opposition in any respect. Biden defeated him anyway.
In quick, there are too many variables in an extended marketing campaign to know what Haley’s endurance will imply the remainder of the way in which.
Source: www.bostonherald.com”