Vladimir Putin has by no means misplaced in battle earlier than. Not in Chechnya, not in Georgia, not in Syria.
Might Ukraine be totally different?
Yes, 6,000 sq. kilometres is only a slither within the appreciable territory Russia holds in Ukraine – one fifth of the nation.
But Russia is now on the again foot. This was a rout – not a “regrouping” as state media would have its viewers consider.
Poor morale – alongside an overstretched frontline with weak factors Ukraine has clearly managed to determine – could be contagious, and the Kremlin should comprehend it.
So what does Vladimir Putin do?
Don’t anticipate the Kremlin to say a lot past the same old “all going according to plan” rhetoric, as a result of something extra can be an admission of one thing rotten on this “special military operation”, specifically manpower shortcomings.
Live updates: Ukraine ‘retakes 6,000 sq. kilometres of territory’
Broader mobilisation
He may resolve on broader mobilisation, moderately than counting on volunteer contractors who come to grasp fairly quickly that this horrifically harmful struggle is not well worth the paycheck.
That could not contain full mobilisation with all of the political penalties of bringing in Russia’s younger males of their entirety to struggle, however could possibly be a extra focused mobilisation of reservists with particular skillsets.
They would however nonetheless want time and coaching, particularly if their army service was means again when, and and not using a full battle declaration they could nonetheless have the authorized proper to refuse or no less than defer.
The manpower downside is just not a straightforward one to repair.
Targeting power networks
Then there are different stress factors Russia can leverage.
Targeting Ukraine’s power networks – already in play; Zaporizhzhia – one missile strike away from a nuclear catastrophe; persevering with to place the squeeze on Europe by way of power, although Ukraine’s current advances make it extra probably that Europe will hold supplying weapons, not much less.
Nuclear choice
As for the dreaded nuclear choice, Russia has to a sure extent ready the rhetorical groundwork.
Its nuclear doctrine permits for a first-strike nuclear assault provided that the steadiness of the state is in danger, however this “special military operation” is regularly described as a means of defending Russia towards NATO aggression, amid claims that the top aim of the West is Russia’s annihilation.
So it’s not a stretch to make use of that justification, ought to Russia resolve on a tactical nuclear strike which a number of the louder army pundits on state TV are already ruminating on.
Is Vladimir Putin actually ready to go that far, an choice which lies firmly outdoors the Overton window, already stretched to its hinges together with his actions in Ukraine?
The story so typically informed as an perception into his psyche is how as a toddler, taking part in within the courtyard of his communal condo in St Petersburg, he managed to nook a big rat. Rather than cower it lashed out.
But this story – and its apocryphal conclusions – belies Putin’s skill to adapt, his opportunism, his experience in all issues hybrid.
He might want his legacy to incorporate a return of Kyiv to the Russian fold however to cross the nuclear Rubicon, 77 years after Hiroshima?
It is just not not possible however my hunch is that that is nonetheless unlikely.
No revolution
These 6,000 sq. kilometres round Kharkiv (extra particularly Izyum and Balakliya) aren’t Kherson nor are they a battle for Crimea.
That is when issues may shift domestically, not simply on the battlefield.
For now, febrile chat on Russian TV speak reveals doesn’t a revolution make, regardless of the wishful pondering of the West.
But these are febrile, harmful instances. Watch this area.
Source: information.sky.com”