The Orioles have their eye on their first American League East title since 2014, and this week, they will enhance their probabilities whereas additionally locking up a playoff spot for the primary time in seven years.
Entering Wednesday, Baltimore’s magic quantity for a playoff spot is 4, a quantity decided primarily based on quite a few tiebreakers and head-to-head matchups between the groups within the wild-card race. Effectively, there isn’t a situation the Orioles end with 95 wins — 4 greater than they’ve now — and miss the playoffs.
At the earliest, Baltimore can lock up a playoff spot Thursday, after they start a vital four-game sequence with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Orioles lead the Rays by three video games within the AL East heading into Wednesday’s sequence finale in opposition to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Here’s a have a look at when and the way the Orioles can clinch a playoff spot for the primary time since 2016.
Magic quantity explainer
First, let’s rapidly clarify the magic quantity. In a straight-up situation, it’s decided by including the variety of wins of the staff within the playoff spot to the variety of losses of the primary staff out, then subtracting that sum from 163, or the variety of video games within the season plus one. In the case of the AL East, it’s 163 minus Orioles wins (91) plus Rays losses (57) to get a magic variety of 15. Each Orioles win or Rays loss brings the quantity down by one every.
To determine Baltimore’s magic quantity for a playoff spot, it’s extra difficult. Simply utilizing the Orioles’ 91 wins with the Seattle Mariners’ or Toronto Blue Jays’ 65 losses mathematically ends in a magic variety of seven. But the Blue Jays are at the moment in a four-game sequence with the Texas Rangers, who’re half a sport up on each Seattle and Toronto. The Mariners and Rangers have seven video games left between one another, which means certainly one of them will lose no less than 4 extra video games.
In reality, there’s just one situation by which a 94-win Orioles staff misses the playoffs, which retains Baltimore’s magic quantity from being three. It includes a tie atop the AL West amongst Texas, Seattle and the Houston Astros at 94-68, with subsequent tiebreakers protecting the Orioles out. It’s an immensely convoluted and unlikely consequence, however it exists, so it leaves the magic quantity at 4.
How the Orioles can clinch Thursday
Likewise, there’s just one situation by which the Orioles can clinch a playoff spot Thursday.
Firstly, they have to win their subsequent two video games, beating Cardinals left-hander Drew Rom — certainly one of three prospects they traded to St. Louis final month for starter Jack Flaherty — in Wednesday’s sport earlier than opening the Rays sequence with a victory. A aspect observe: Baltimore’s first win in opposition to Tampa Bay will drop its AL East magic quantity by three, primarily based on an Orioles win, a Rays loss and Baltimore securing the head-to-head tiebreaker with its seventh win within the groups’ season sequence.
Beyond their very own two wins, the Orioles will need assistance from elsewhere. With the Mariners off Thursday, the one manner Baltimore can clinch that day is that if Seattle loses to the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday and the Rangers lose to the Blue Jays each Wednesday and Thursday. Either of these groups successful a sport over the following two days leaves open the opportunity of the aforementioned three-way tie atop the AL West that ultimately ends in the Orioles being the odd staff out.
Regardless, both Seattle or Texas shedding Wednesday will drop Baltimore’s magic quantity to 3. The Orioles additionally successful would deliver it to 2.
How the Orioles can clinch Friday
The Orioles have already introduced Camden Yards is offered out for Friday’s sport, earlier than which longtime heart fielder Adam Jones will formally retire with Baltimore. The evening would make maybe the proper setting to clinch.
Numerous outcomes can lead to Baltimore clinching Friday. If the Orioles win the following two days whereas Texas and Seattle collectively win not more than two of their three video games in that point, Baltimore would clinch Friday with a win in opposition to Tampa Bay no matter what occurs elsewhere. The solely manner the Orioles win Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with out clinching is that if Texas and Seattle do the identical.
Even if the Orioles lose in entrance of a packed home or one of many two earlier video games, Baltimore may guarantee a playoff berth Friday if Texas and Seattle lose three of their mixed 5 video games in that span. The Mariners start a sequence with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday, whereas the Rangers play the Cleveland Guardians.
For the Orioles to clinch a playoff spot Friday whereas successful solely certainly one of their subsequent three video games, the Rangers should lose their subsequent three video games whereas Seattle loses its subsequent two. Any different outcomes push clinching situations to the weekend.
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Source: www.bostonherald.com