Spring coaching is normally a time for hope and optimism, however lately Red Sox followers aren’t precisely seeing rays of sunshine.
With camp formally opening this week, we requested to your questions concerning the membership and the upcoming season, and the response mirrored the overwhelming sense of frustration that’s permeating the fanbase. People are upset and more and more disillusioned, however there additionally stays a kernel of hope and curiosity.
Even after all the pieces that’s occurred, followers nonetheless wish to consider there’s one thing price wanting ahead to.
So on this week’s mailbag, we’ll attempt to dive deep into this group’s ceiling and long-term outlook, together with extra simple spring points like who might comprise the beginning outfield and what sensible expectations are for Boston’s high prospects.
There’s been tons of deserved negativity this offseason so let’s attempt to be optimistic. Tell me why the Sox win 90 video games this 12 months. — Paul Z.
I like this query. We’ve all grow to be so conditioned to count on the worst with the Red Sox that it may typically be exhausting to think about what issues might appear to be if issues truly go proper. So, what’s a best-case situation for this group and the way might we get there?
First, Trevor Story will get again to his outdated Colorado kind and delivers each a Gold Glove season at shortstop and a Silver Slugger season on the plate. He tops 30 residence runs and an .850 OPS, changing into the right-handed thumper the Red Sox want in the course of the lineup. That safety helps Rafael Devers get pleasure from a monster season as nicely, and Story’s vary eliminates the necessity for Devers to make the robust performs to his left he’s at all times struggled with, serving to him grow to be extra dependable at third defensively. Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida each enhance of their second full MLB seasons, with Casas topping 30 homers for the primary of hopefully many occasions.
New outfielder Tyler O’Neill additionally stays wholesome and turns in a season extra like his career-best 2021, when he hit 34 residence runs and completed eighth within the NL MVP vote. Jarren Duran hits 40 doubles and steals 30 bases, Wilyer Abreu and Vaughn Grissom each emerge as legit starters, and Ceddanne Rafaela makes an actual push to earn a spot for himself.
As for the pitching, Brayan Bello takes a giant leap ahead and establishes himself as an ace. Lucas Giolito will get again to his Chicago White Sox stage and posts a 3.50 ERA over 200 innings. Nick Pivetta retains pitching like he did within the second half final 12 months, placing himself in line for a giant contract on the free agent market. Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck all get pleasure from profession seasons, with whoever results in the rotation making 32 begins and topping 160 innings.
With the beginning rotation pitching at a excessive stage and constantly going deep into video games, Alex Cora is ready to line up his high relievers within the late innings rather more often. Kenley Jansen tops 30 saves, Chris Martin stays elite and the membership’s different high-leverage guys constantly get the job completed. We by no means have a state of affairs the place a depth arm like Kyle Barraclough has to eat 10 runs over four-plus innings as a result of there was no person else accessible to take the mound.
Meanwhile, whereas the Red Sox get pleasure from a resurgence, the membership’s AL East rivals begin encountering sudden setbacks. Tampa Bay takes a step again with its beginning rotation nonetheless decimated by damage and Wander Franco unavailable for the forseeable future. Toronto stagnates as a few of its older gamers start to say no, and a few of New York’s massive additions fall flat, leaving the Yankees pretty much as good however not nice. Even the Orioles, who appear to be a juggernaut, endure some rising pains as its younger roster continues to acclimate to the majors.
Nothing I simply described is totally unrealistic, and in all chance fairly just a few of these items will go proper. The drawback, clearly, is sort of just a few extra issues might doubtlessly go unsuitable, and with few significant offseason upgrades there’s no purpose to count on a significant turnaround is imminent.
Still, we’ve seen worst-to-first turnarounds earlier than, so it’s not that loopy to think about this membership might wind up shocking just a few individuals.
What is the Red Sox long run plan for achievement? — Tony B.
We’ve been listening to for nearly 5 years how the Red Sox aspire to construct in direction of sustainable success. In some methods they’re getting shut however in others they nonetheless have a protracted strategy to go.
So, what precisely is the plan?
We’re already seeing elements of it come to fruition. Casas has reached the majors and appears like a center of the order cornerstone. Bello has established himself as a significant league starter and Connor Wong ought to issue into the catching state of affairs for the foreseeable future. The quartet of Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Josh Winckowski all have at the very least two years of expertise underneath their belts and the Red Sox are banking on them making the leap as nicely.
Others like Rafaela, Abreu and the newly-acquired Grissom will get their first actual shot this season, and subsequent 12 months we should always see the arrival of high prospects Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel. If all goes in response to plan, these gamers — together with Devers, Story and Yoshida, who every have 4 or extra years remaining on their offers — will kind the core of the subsequent nice Red Sox group.
What hasn’t panned out is the membership’s pitching improvement. Besides Bello, Boston’s younger pitchers haven’t progressed on the charge anybody hoped for. If we’re being trustworthy, individuals wouldn’t be as irate about Boston’s lack of urgency in addressing the rotation if Whitlock or Houck have been coming off a season like Bello simply had. The membership has made rectifying that weak point its high precedence this winter, and if these efforts repay then it gained’t simply be the Whitlocks and Houcks who profit, however the low stage arms who come out of nowhere to grow to be actual studs.
That’s the plan, and in idea it’s not a foul one. What’s irritating is the way in which possession is pushing a false binary the place short-term investments and long-term sustainability are introduced as mutually unique, successfully branding the membership’s unwillingness to spend as being fiscally accountable.
Sure, this 12 months’s membership in all probability isn’t going to win a World Series title, however signing a confirmed beginning pitcher to a multi-year deal would assist in each the quick and long run. Even including one other bat on a one-year deal might assist drum up pleasure, and getting out of the AL East’s basement and again into the playoffs as a Wild Card would assist reestablish a successful tradition and expose the younger guys to postseason baseball.
Hopefully that turns into a part of the plan sooner or later, too.
Who goes to be the ace since they traded Chris Sale to the Braves? — Eric G.
Bello must be the Red Sox’ greatest beginning pitcher this season, however as we’ve realized through the years, being the No. 1 on a workers isn’t essentially the identical factor as being an ace.
When you consider an ace, you consider somebody like Pedro Martinez in his prime or Chris Sale pre-injury, a man who takes the mound each fifth day and dominates. An unquestioned chief who instructions respect from his teammates and opponents alike. Someone whose begin dates you circle on the calendar.
Bello wasn’t at that stage final 12 months, however he has all of the instruments to get there.
There’s no query Bello carries himself like an ace. He took it personally when he was optioned to the minors early final season and made certain it wouldn’t occur once more. He got here via on the most important levels, constantly dominating the Yankees whereas additionally pitching gems in opposition to the Astros, Braves and eventual World Series champion Rangers. He’s drawn rave critiques from teammates, coaches and from the Hall of Famer Martinez himself.
What’s nonetheless lacking is the consistency. Bello completed with a 4.24 ERA largely due to the 6.94 ERA he posted in 10 day video games, and due to the 2 eggs he laid in his remaining begins. That isn’t going to chop it, but when Bello can take the subsequent step and pitch to his full potential each outing, he might grow to be the ace this membership wants him to be.
Because if it’s not him, it in all probability gained’t be anybody.
What will the beginning outfield be on Opening Day? — Richard P.
The protected wager is O’Neill in left area, Duran in middle and Abreu in proper with Yoshida as the first DH, however that alignment is hardly set in stone. By all accounts Rafaela goes to get an actual likelihood to earn the beginning middle area job, and if he wins it that would have fascinating ramifications all over the place else.
Duran would presumably bump over to left area, however would he platoon with O’Neill there or would he be an on a regular basis starter? Could we see O’Neill and Abreu platoon in proper? What if O’Neill outplays Duran and Abreu and locks down a spot for himself? Is it doable we’d see a rumored Duran commerce come to fruition?
Usually it’s not a good suggestion to attract too many conclusions from spring coaching exhibitions, however who performs during which outfield spot — and when — can be one thing followers ought to monitor carefully because the video games get going.
Where do you see Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel getting in 2024 level-wise? — @RedSoxMiLB
I feel all three will end the 12 months in Triple-A, although I wouldn’t rule out the likelihood they may make a late-season cameo within the majors.
Each has already reached Double-A and will begin the season in Portland, and by midseason I feel there’s a sensible likelihood all three may have an opportunity to earn a promotion to Worcester. Of the three I feel Mayer has one of the best likelihood of getting there first. He performed greater than two months with the Sea Dogs and whereas he spent a lot of that point battling damage, he acquitted himself properly on protection and earned rave critiques from his coaches.
As far as reaching the majors although, I truly assume Teel has one of the best likelihood to play a task in 2024. He’s the oldest at 22 and got here to the Red Sox group unusually polished for a brand new draftee. He additionally has the clearest lane to taking part in time, as a result of if the Red Sox are out of it in September and Reese McGuire is having a replacement-level season, it wouldn’t be exhausting to think about Boston giving Teel an audition very similar to Connor Wong obtained in 2022.
Source: www.bostonherald.com