The NFL’s greatest quarterback matchup of the month — and perhaps the season — is coming to Baltimore.
The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and Buffalo BIlls’ Josh Allen, the early favorites for league Most Valuable Player honors, will meet for the third time as starters Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium. The 2018 first-round picks cut up their first two conferences, with the Ravens (2-1) profitable in Buffalo in 2019 earlier than dropping on the highway in an AFC divisional-round playoff recreation the next season.
The Bills (2-1) are thought-about Super Bowl favorites regardless of dropping Sunday to a Miami Dolphins workforce that additionally received in Baltimore in Week 2. The Ravens wish to stay atop the AFC North and finish a four-game residence dropping streak. Here’s what to observe within the groups’ Week 4 matchup.
Offense
1. On offense, the Ravens wish to line up their approach — with extra dimension than velocity. On protection, the Bills wish to line up their approach, too — with extra velocity than dimension. That means Sunday’s recreation, no less than by way of personnel, may turn out to be a staring contest between Greg Roman and Leslie Frazier.
In Roman’s offense, the Ravens are snug being unconventional. In a league the place “11″ personnel groupings (one operating again, one tight finish and three wider receivers) dominate, the Ravens have lined up with no less than three vast receivers on simply 15 of Jackson’s 99 drop-backs this season, in response to Sports Info Solutions. Tight ends and fullback Patrick Ricard get the snaps that complementary vast receivers in any other case would.
In Frazier’s protection, in the meantime, the Bills are snug lining up with 5 defensive backs virtually solely. Opposing quarterbacks have dropped again in opposition to Buffalo’s “nickel” appears to be like 97 occasions this season. Only the Tennessee Titans’ Ryan Tannehill has confronted a Bills move protection in a “base” look (4 defensive backs), and he noticed it on simply two performs.
So far, Buffalo’s run protection hasn’t suffered: The Bills are No. 5 within the NFL in effectivity there, in response to Football Outsiders, regardless of accidents to defensive linemen Ed Oliver (questionable for Sunday) and Jordan Phillips (dominated out). Roman on Thursday praised Bills slot cornerback Taron Johnson’s skill to execute the Bills’ run suits.
“I’ll tell you what, it’s pretty remarkable what No. 7 [Johnson] can do,” Roman stated. “Seen him taking on offensive linemen in the ‘B’ gap and kind of holding his ground, he’s doing a really nice job. I don’t see a problem there at all for them; he’s doing really well. You don’t often see that to that extent. So you can tell they really like him and trust him, and his play has been outstanding.”
If the Ravens battle to run the ball in opposition to Buffalo’s smaller personnel, their passing recreation might be challenged. Jackson has fared higher in opposition to base protection (124.2 passer ranking, 74.1% accuracy) than nickel protection (111.5 passer ranking, 60% accuracy) this season.
2. One 12 months after struggling mightily in opposition to the blitz, Jackson is again to punishing aggressive defenses. He’s 23-for-31 for 349 yards and 6 touchdowns (150.4 passer ranking) in opposition to 5 or extra move rushers, in response to SIS, and has taken only one sack in opposition to the blitz.
That shouldn’t have an effect on Buffalo’s recreation plan a lot. The Bills have blitzed simply 4 occasions in three video games — twice in opposition to the Titans’ Tannehill and twice in opposition to the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa, each of whom have been sacked as soon as and missed on their one try.
With a wealth of pass-rush weapons and an organized protection, the Bills have been largely content material to ship 4 rushers after the quarterback, drop seven defenders into protection and take their probabilities. Even way back to its 2020 playoff win over the Ravens, Buffalo primarily ditched man-to-man protection, by no means calling a “Cover 0″ (all-out blitz with no deep safeties), “Cover 1″ (one deep safety) or “Cover 2 man” (two deep safeties) look, in response to SIS.
3. Mark Andrews has confronted the Bills 3 times in his profession. Somehow, Hayden Hurst has been the extra productive Ravens tight finish in opposition to Buffalo in that span.
In his NFL debut, in 2018, Andrews had three catches for 31 yards. In 2019, he had one catch for 14 yards. In a divisional-round playoff loss a 12 months later, he had 4 catches on 11 targets for 28 yards. Hurst, who confronted the Bengals simply as soon as in his two years as a Raven, had three catches on three targets for 73 yards — equaling Andrews’ mixed yardage — and a landing of their 2019 assembly.
Even with a season-ending neck harm sidelining beginning security Micah Hyde, the Bills received’t be simple for Andrews to unravel. Safety Jordan Poyer, an All-Pro like Hyde, may play regardless of a foot harm that restricted him in apply this week, and Matt Milano is likely one of the NFL’s greatest off-ball linebackers in protection. According to Football Outsiders’ effectivity metrics, no workforce is best at defending tight ends this season than the Bills.
4. With Patrick Mekari (ankle) uncertain and Ronnie Stanley (ankle) questionable for Sunday’s recreation, Daniel Faalele’s first profession begin may ship a check that almost all left tackles would battle with.
The fourth-round decide, who lined up solely at proper deal with at Minnesota, may face three defensive ends ranked among the many seven highest-graded move rushers on the place: Boogie Basham (No. 1), Gregory Rousseau (No. 6) and Von Miller (No. 7). The Ravens helped Faalele at occasions Sunday with play-action calls, double groups and chip blocks, however no matter they’ll dedicate to move safety, they’ll lose as a receiving possibility.
“There are different ways to go with it,” Roman stated. “You can kind of say, ‘Oh my gosh, he’s in the game; we’re just going to get inside a little tent, and we’re not going to do much and just hope for the best,’ ” Roman said. “Or you can see how he’s doing … and assess, ‘OK, we’re going to need to do this, that and the other.’ And there is kind of a middle ground there, too, where you might call certain things to help him out, but still try to be aggressive with your plan.”
Defense
5. Weighed down by an unremarkable operating again group and an inconsistent offensive line, the Bills have one of many NFL’s worst speeding assaults. Despite averaging a good 4.3 yards per keep on designed runs, Buffalo is thirtieth within the NFL in “success rate” on designed operating performs. (A play is taken into account profitable when it positive factors no less than 40% of the yards to go on first down, 60% of the yards to go on second down and 100% of the yards to go on third or fourth down.)
The Bills’ greatest runs to date have been improvised. Allen has scrambled 11 occasions this season for 93 yards and a landing, in response to SIS. All however one among his scrambles has produced a primary down.
Like Jackson, Allen’s athleticism poses matchup nightmares. He has the velocity to run by linebackers and the energy to shake off defensive backs. Almost two-thirds of his scrambling yards this season have come after contact.
6. The Ravens will needn’t solely a more practical move rush Sunday but in addition a extra disciplined one. New England quarterback Mac Jones, not sometimes a scrambling menace, had 5 carries for 31 yards and his first profession speeding landing within the Patriots’ Week 3 loss. Disorganized defensive fronts gave Jones the form of operating lanes that Allen can flip into launching pads.
“When you’re playing your zones, you can gain some defenders,” defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald stated Thursday. “When you’re going to play ‘man,’ you have to start tweaking your pass-rush plan and how you’re going to play those certain situations. Then, if [Allen] rears his head in certain critical situations, just keeping the ball in designed runs, then it’s a different animal, just because it’s a numbers issue, plus his skill as a runner and just being so big and being able to get on the edge.”
7. The Ravens’ third-down protection has been hit-or-miss this season. In Week 1, the New York Jets didn’t convert till halfway by the fourth quarter. In Week 3, the New England Patriots have been 2-for-9, with one would-be first-down catch ruined by rookie security Kyle Hamilton’s pressured fumble. In between was the Ravens’ Week 2 collapse in opposition to the Miami Dolphins, who transformed seven of their 11 third downs and scored three touchdowns on third-and-6 or longer.
The Bills are one of many NFL’s most effective groups on third down (NFL-best 61% conversion fee) and fourth down (66.7% conversion fee, tied for fourth general), partly as a result of seemingly no distance is simply too far to cowl. Buffalo has transformed 9 of its 17 third-down performs with no less than 7 yards to go (52.9%) — not far behind its fee on third down when needing 3 or fewer yards (61.8%). According to Sharp Football Analysis, 65.5% of Allen’s move makes an attempt on third down have resulted in a primary down or landing, the best fee within the league.
Extra factors
8. Sunday’s recreation is near a homecoming for Bills vast receiver Stefon Diggs, a five-star recruit at Good Counsel in Olney who later performed three injury-marred years at Maryland. Diggs slipped to the fifth spherical of the 2015 NFL draft, and Harbaugh acknowledged earlier than the groups’ playoff assembly in January 2021 that “unfortunately, that’s one that got away.” Entering Week 4, Diggs led the NFL with 344 receiving yards.
A Week 3 harm ruined a extra pure homecoming for Bills rookie cornerback Christian Benford, who was born in Baltimore and performed at Randallstown. Benford, a sixth-round decide from Villanova, began the primary three video games for the Bills’ injury-depleted secondary, incomes extra taking part in time than first-round decide Kaiir Elam over the primary two weeks. But Benford broke his hand Sunday in opposition to the Dolphins and can miss a few weeks after present process surgical procedure.
9. Jackson is 84 speeding yards shy of 4,000 over his profession, a mark solely 5 quarterbacks in NFL historical past have reached. Michael Vick is the quickest quarterback in NFL historical past to succeed in 4,000 speeding yards, doing so in 87 profession video games. Jackson has performed in solely 61.
Andrews wants 100 receiving yards to tie vast receiver Mark Clayton’s document for probably the most 100-yard receiving video games (9) in Ravens historical past.
10. The Ravens will put on their all-purple “Color Rush” uniforms Sunday. Until their 31-30 loss final season to the eventual NFC champion Green Bay Packers, the Ravens had received their first 4 video games whereas sporting Color Rush uniforms by a mean margin of 29.3 factors.
11. Two seasons after coping with near-freezing temperatures and whipping winds of their playoff assembly, the Ravens and Bills may get extra disagreeable climate Sunday. Rain in Baltimore is predicted to fall by the morning and afternoon because the remnants of Hurricane Ian transfer north from Florida.
Week 4
BILLS@RAVENS
Sunday, 1 p.m.
TV: Chs. 13, 9
Radio: 97.9 FM, 101.5 FM, 1090 AM
Line: Bills by 3
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Source: www.bostonherald.com