For the third time in 30 years, the Patriots are two-score underdogs at residence.
The Bills (4-2) enter Foxboro as one of many NFL’s greatest groups, whereas the Pats (1-5) proceed to flounder in a means few anticipated. Offensively, the Patriots snapped their games-long landing drought final week at Las Vegas, however once more fell into an early gap. Staying aggressive via the primary half can be non-negotiable versus Buffalo, which has averaged greater than 30 factors per sport in opposition to Bill Belichick’s protection the final three seasons.
If the Pats fall behind by two scores, they’re finished. But if they’ll create a pair turnovers, and win on the margins, they might discover life at an surprising time in an unexpected season.
Here’s what else to look at for Sunday:
When the Patriots run
Feed Zeke?
Ezekiel Elliott ended the aforementioned landing drought by punching in a 2-yard rating at Las Vegas final weekend. On that drive, the Patriots powered their means downfield with 4 first-down runs that picked up 36 yards. It appears unlikely the Pats will discover related success versus an above-average Buffalo run protection, however Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson should kill clock for them to have an opportunity.
And there may be one weak spot in Buffalo’s entrance: the center. The Bills are permitting a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry contained in the tackles, per Sports Info. Solutions. Look for the Pats to pound away on the center, particularly with the return of proper guard Mike Onwenu, who’s been recovering from an ankle harm.
If Onwenu can transfer nicely sufficient, the Patriots may additionally return to the one run scheme — counter — that’s yielded constant positive aspects. On simply six carries, the offense has averaged 5.7 yards per counter run, greater than every other base run within the playbook. If the Pats name counter, look ahead to Onwenu or the beginning left guard to drag within the path of the play and block an unblocked defender on the finish of the road of scrimmage.
When the Patriots move
Step one: block. Step two: pray.
The Bills boast the NFL’s greatest move rush, in accordance with each Mac Jones and Bill Belichick. They’re deep on the sting and the inside, the place defensive deal with Ed Oliver is “as good as anybody we’ll play,” per Belichick. Last week, Jones averaged 2.2 seconds from snap to throw at Las Vegas, the fastest-time for any quarterback within the NFL.
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It causes the Patriots will draw up one other sport plan that emphasizes their fast passing sport and forces Buffalo to deal with in area (the Bills’ tackling ranks twenty ninth, per Pro Football Focus). Returning rookie receiver Demario Douglas ought to assist there, as would a number of downfield run-pass-options (RPOs). Buffalo is very inexperienced at linebacker, the place they need to be susceptible to these performs that drive a defender to select between defending a run or move.
Their inconsistent linebacker play must also invite targets for tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki. Then once more, the identical might be mentioned of the Raiders final week, and Henry and Gesicki mixed for simply 4 catches.
Meanwhile, Kendrick Bourne is coming off his greatest sport of the season (10 catches for 89 yards), and figures to be a focus as long as fellow receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker proceed to underwhelm.
When the Bills run
In the offseason, Buffalo’s entrance workplace emphasised constructing out its operating sport to higher put together themselves for playoff soccer. Among different strikes, the Bills signed ex-Patriots operating again Damien Harris and bolstered their offensive line.
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While Harris will miss Sunday’s sport with a neck sprain, Buffalo should not lose an excessive amount of steam on the bottom. The Bills rank among the many NFL’s 10 greatest speeding offenses by most metrics, because of second-year again James Cook making a leap and quarterback Josh Allen powering via defenders at 6-foot-5 and 240 kilos. Cook leads the workforce with 363 speeding yards at a 4.8 yards per carry common.
Defensively, the Patriots will want linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai to bolster a banged-up entrance. Last week, Tavai changed rookie defensive lineman Keion White (concussion) on one edge, whereas Bentley manned the center with defensive tackles Davon Godchaux and Lawrence Guy. Winning the road of scrimmage is a should for a Patriots protection down a number of defensive backs.
When the Bills move
J.C. Jackson’s return has helped stabilize a secondary that briefly misplaced its prime 4 cornerbacks this season. Last week, Jackson made his first begin for the Patriots since being traded and performed 96% of the workforce’s snaps.
But Jackson might want to do greater than take the sector in opposition to Buffalo. He should overcome essentially the most tough matchup of his profession.
Bills All-Pro receiver Stefon Diggs has roasted Jackson in all their latest matchups. Diggs is averaging greater than six catches and 88 yards per sport versus New England. He’s additionally scored six touchdowns in these seven conferences.
On the season, Diggs has greater than double the catches (49) of every other Bills participant, together with second-leading receiver Gabriel Davis. The 6-foot-2, 225-pound Davis represents a dimension mismatch for any Pats defensive again, sans their safeties. Thus, anticipate the Patriots to once more execute a zone-heavy sport plan with a powerful dose of Cover 2 to guard in opposition to Allen’s deep ball.
Up entrance, they will additionally must generate extra strain on Allen than they’ve in opposition to any quarterback in nearly a month. Ever since Matt Judon was misplaced to a torn bicep tendon, the Patriots have collected two sacks and didn’t crack a 25% strain fee in a single sport.
Source: www.bostonherald.com