If ever there was a motive to do not forget that WAR is a helpful stat, however removed from the be-all, end-all in baseball analysis instruments, Trevor Story has been an ideal instance.
Story’s season might have come to an finish on Thursday, when the Red Sox positioned him on the injured listing with a bruised heel. He’ll be eligible to return with per week left within the season, however don’t maintain your breath.
Last time the Sox mentioned he’d be again shortly, he missed six weeks with a hand/wrist damage.
Not to say that Story ought to’ve performed by way of it — that’s one of many dumbest takes in sports activities media, since solely the participant and the workforce know the extent of accidents — however reasonably a commentary on his season, and that of the Red Sox.
They aren’t making the playoffs anyhow, so why ought to Story rush himself again now?
The actuality is that the $140-million signing, the most important of Chaim Bloom’s tenure, hasn’t regarded good up to now.
It’s laborious to jot down that, to say that, to even suppose that, with out acknowledging that Story had two actually good weeks and can end the yr as one of many Red Sox’ most beneficial gamers, in line with WAR (wins above substitute).
FanGraphs has Story being price 2.4 WAR this yr, making him the third-most useful participant or pitcher on the Red Sox behind solely Xander Bogaerts (6.0) and Rafael Devers (4.8).
Michael Wacha, the Sox’ ace who’s 11-1 with a 2.70 ERA, is price solely 2.1 WAR.
How on earth?
Story performed in simply 94 video games. He was horrible in at the least half of these video games, first rate in a couple of quarter of them, and other-worldly in 15 of them.
How a man who has three good weeks and spent half the yr on the injured listing might be the third-most useful participant on the workforce is both a results of a flawed statistic or a horrible workforce.
Or each.
That’s to not say that Story received’t ultimately be well worth the $140 million he’ll make over the six-year contract. Maybe he might be. But he turns 30 in November, a month earlier than Bogaerts, who turns 30 in October, and we all know how this stuff usually go.
Pitchers excel of their early 30s. Some are even higher of their mid-to-late 30s. Hitters normally pattern within the different course.
It’s what the Red Sox will say after they inevitably let Bogaerts stroll in free company.
Players who depend on energy and pace have a tough time sustaining these talents later of their careers.
Story talked about his pace in an interview with the Globe on Thursday, saying that his pace is “a big part of my game” and explaining why he determined to relaxation his bruised heel reasonably than play by way of it.
“I want to be able to get out there and play the way that I know I can play, and given right now and how it’s progressed, that’s not the case,” he mentioned.
It doesn’t bode effectively for the long run if a bruised heel is sufficient to make a $140-million participant really feel like he wouldn’t be useful on the sector.
As it’s, Story is a tough participant to judge. He was horrible within the first month of the season, when he regarded utterly misplaced on the plate, ranked close to the underside of the league involved share and was making game-losing errors at second base, albeit a brand new place for the longtime shortstop.
He abruptly caught hearth in May, doing all his injury in a 15-game span wherein he hit .293 with 9 homers and 27 RBIs.
From May 27 up to now, he’s hit .243 with seven homers and 29 RBIs in 55 video games.
He has definitely gotten good at second base, and unquestionably has good baseball instincts that capitalize on his pace and athleticism. But he hasn’t been on the sector and has been far too inconsistent to consider that he’s been the third-most useful participant on the Red Sox this yr.
The WAR stat will let you know he ranks No. 81 out of 1,475 gamers who’ve appearances in an enormous league sport this yr. That feels beneficiant. The Red Sox report reveals that. Their struggles on offense, too.
For a man who might be paid between $20-25 million per season over the following 5 years, he merely disillusioned in 2022.
There’s nothing unsuitable with saying that, admitting he had transient moments of brilliance, acknowledging that he seems to be like an incredible athlete with elite expertise that present up on occasion however with out the consistency to make him a really nice participant.
At his greatest, Story might be a greater participant than Bogaerts.
But Bogaerts stays on the sector. He’s constant. He contributes by way of accidents. He makes himself helpful, even when considered one of his expertise is briefly missing.
Look at his energy. Bogaerts misplaced it this yr. He has simply 14 homers. But he’s hitting .314 and enjoying the perfect protection of his profession, making him the fourth-most useful participant within the American League, in line with WAR (solely Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Yordan Alvarez have been higher).
Take it with a grain of salt. Use your eyes.
Story has regarded like an awesome participant, but when the Red Sox are prepared to pay him $23.3 million a yr and received’t do the identical for Bogaerts, it’ll be laborious to grasp that logic.
Source: www.bostonherald.com