Could the Chicago Bears’ second-half enchancment save Matt Eberflus’ job? Or would normal supervisor Ryan Poles doubtlessly want to pair a brand new quarterback with a brand new head coach?
Brad Biggs takes the temperature of the Eberflus state of affairs and plenty of different matters within the newest Bears mailbag.
Any temperature studying on the place issues may very well be for Matt Eberflus with two video games remaining? — Ray L., Westchester
That’s one of many urgent questions for the fan base and the group. I can’t let you know with certainty both method what is going to shake down after the Jan. 7 season finale in Green Bay. The vibe across the league because the weekend, in speaking with just a few of us from completely different organizations, is that Eberflus may very well be protected to return in 2024. Let’s take note two extra video games stay a part of the analysis course of.
The Bears are usually thought-about a comparatively affected person franchise. Marc Trestman was fired after two seasons in 2014. You have to return to Paddy Driscoll (1956-57) to seek out the earlier Bears coach who was within the position for less than two years. While Trestman’s workforce was spiraling close to the top of 2014, Eberflus has the present workforce aggressive with a 5-4 report over its final 9 video games and a four-game profitable streak at Soldier Field.
As I’ve written since September, it’s a must to separate what occurred in a 3-14 season with a stripped-down roster in 2022 from what has transpired this 12 months. Are there video games and choices Eberflus and his workers would really like again? For certain. The Bears could be within the playoff combine with out fourth-quarter meltdowns towards the Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns. Those had been robust classes for a younger roster to study.
Has the workforce remained aggressive and averted a rut since starting the season 0-4? Yes. There’s proof on each side of the ball of enchancment and growth by younger gamers. All of that bodes properly for the long run and is a praise to the teaching workers as a result of it’s twofold if you discuss draft and growth.
At 6-9, the workforce has doubled its win whole from 2022, and most life like expectations for this season had the Bears within the neighborhood of seven, possibly eight victories. All of that might level to a possibility to return for Eberflus, who has finished a very nice job overseeing the protection all season.
It’s additionally attainable normal supervisor Ryan Poles desires to draft a quarterback and align an offensive-minded head coach with the way forward for the franchise. That can’t be discounted. But if I needed to enterprise a guess proper now, Eberflus will probably be again in 2024. That’s based mostly solely on studying the tea leaves, understanding how the franchise usually operates and surveying the opinions of others across the league. We’ll all be educated when Poles solutions questions on the finish of the season.
To me, Sunday’s recreation supplied extra proof of why Matt Eberflus has to go. Bears ball with about 2:27 left within the first half. Three timeouts. Arizona can’t cease the run. Bears try three passes, use little clock and punt. A great head coach tells the offensive coordinator the best way to handle that state of affairs. Thoughts? — @gregcanfie89986
The Bears took possession on their 25-yard line with a 21-7 lead on the level you reference. They shortly went three-and-out and punted after the two-minute warning. To me, the issue was execution, not technique. I just like the aggressive resolution to come back out slinging, particularly when you realize the Cardinals will get the ball to start the third quarter. Why not attempt to pad the lead?
Let’s be sincere and admit it might have been tough to drive the sector in that time-frame with a run-heavy possession, even with the timeouts and two-minute warning. The Bears wanted some chunk performs and wanted to make use of the sidelines slightly bit to cease the clock.
Let’s take a look at what occurred:
- First-and-10: The Bears tried to get a fast drive starter from a 3-by-1 alignment. Darnell Mooney ran a velocity out from the slot, Justin Fields made a great throw on time and Mooney dropped it. It most likely would have been a 7-yard achieve on the boundary, and Mooney simply would have gotten out of bounds to cease the clock. Not good.
- Second-and-10: The Bears motioned to a different 3-by-1 set and ran a fundamental curl/flat idea. The ball wanted to go to DJ Moore on the curl. Fields had some edge strain on him from the left. At that time, he wanted to step up within the pocket, reset the throwing window and drive the ball. That didn’t occur. Moore transformed the route and Fields, after scrambling, was not in a position to join with him.
- Third-and-10: The Bears used a 2-by-2 set and stored tight finish Robert Tonyan in to dam because the Cardinals confirmed strain on the line of scrimmage earlier than dropping into Cover-2. That’s not a great place, with few home windows, for an offense that wants 10 yards. The Bears ran center learn with three verticals. There was a learn in the course of the sector the place, if Fields may have stepped up within the pocket and ripped the cross, there was an opportunity to maneuver the chains. Tonyan bought beat, and the bottom strain turned it right into a scramble drill with Fields dumping the ball to operating again Roschon Johnson for a brief achieve. There was loads of area for Fields to climb the pocket, however he hasn’t proven loads of consolation doing that. It wasn’t an ideal alternative, however, once more, third-and-10 towards Cover-2 is a problem.
The Bears have routinely struggled within the two-minute offense. The quarterback has to grasp the pocket to take over in these conditions. They must be comfy working bottom on their reads and throwing the ball in the course of the sector.
This drive bought off to a tough begin when Mooney dropped the cross. That put the offense behind the chains. But I don’t consider this was poor clock administration. The flip facet is making an attempt to burn clock and getting criticized for taking part in conservatively with a 14-point lead. The protection held and bought the ball again shortly on the Bears 24 with 59 seconds remaining. A holding penalty set the offense again and it didn’t achieve a yard.
Could you envision a situation the place Matt Eberflus is fired and the entrance workplace makes use of teaching interviews to evaluate how a brand new head coach may/would use Justin Fields vs. the potential and viability of quarterbacks within the draft class? — @davesolverson
If GM Ryan Poles is interviewing head-coaching candidates, he may have a ton of questions on offensive philosophy and the way it might mesh with the present roster. I don’t know that Poles would lean closely on a brand new head coach to make a name on a quarterback he hasn’t labored with the earlier two years. Also, there most likely isn’t a head-coaching candidate who has spent exhaustive time finding out draft prospects at this level.
Poles would wish to be aligned with a brand new coach of their imaginative and prescient for the offense, no query, and they might speak about most if not all the gamers on the roster. Ultimately, Poles is the one making the decision on the way forward for the place.
Does holding Justin Fields hinder the Bears’ capability to re-sign Jaylon Johnson? — @dxwilson1
Not in any respect. The Bears made some tough choices in 2022, once they wound up carrying greater than $85 million in useless salary-cap area. They efficiently cleared the books and are arrange with a wholesome future cap state of affairs. When you take a look at how they structured a number of the bigger contracts the final two years, the cap hits for every season stay fairly stage and in some instances truly dip within the later years.
Sometimes groups design contracts with cap hits escalating within the later years of the contract so as to protect cap area within the early years. The Bears are making their cap hits for bigger contracts comparatively balanced. For occasion, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds has a $14.7 million cap hit this season. It bumps to $22.4 million in 2024 and is $17.4 million for every of the ultimate two years of the deal. Defensive finish Montez Sweat has a stage cap hit of $25 million for every of the subsequent 4 seasons.
The Bears are working to maintain a reasonably wholesome cap state of affairs, which might give them flexibility for no less than just a few years. According to overthecap.com, they undertaking to have virtually $64 million in cap area for 2024. That’s the seventh-most within the league and I might count on that quantity to be larger by the point the brand new league 12 months begins. So there’s greater than sufficient area for the Bears to tag or prolong Johnson and have loads of remaining room to be as aggressive as wanted in free company.
The extensive receiver place has proven to be an issue. Is it loopy to assume one of many two first-round picks will probably be used on a WR? — @themattsmothers
I don’t assume the extensive receiver drawback is almost as problematic as some consider. Is it the place the Bears need it to be? Probably not. Is it a heck of rather a lot higher than the previous couple of seasons? No query. The actual difficulty is that after DJ Moore, the one receivers beneath contract for 2024 are Tyler Scott and Velus Jones. Darnell Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown and Trent Taylor will probably be popping out of contract after the season. I’ve written beforehand that extensive receiver may very well be a severe consideration for one of many workforce’s first-round picks. Not solely is there a necessity, it aligns with a power of the draft.
Has Kyler Gordon propelled himself right into a top-10 slot nook within the league this 12 months in simply his second season? He has been nice this 12 months in protection and towards the run, getting within the backfield to make stops. — @nickrichey11
Gordon has been fairly darn constant all season, and his play most likely has been overshadowed slightly bit as Jaylon Johnson has had a banner season on the surface and the event of rookies Tyrique Stevenson and Terell Smith has warranted protection. Gordon has positively elevated his play this season. As far as rankings, I don’t find out about that — it’s a place the place some groups swap out their nickels from 12 months to 12 months — but it surely’s arrow up for Gordon, and the Bears must be fairly blissful together with his developmental arc.
He’s ideally suited for the place as a result of he possesses the unfastened hips wanted for change of course and has the scale and power to be credible towards the run. He has an honest nostril for the ball and he’s an aggressive and keen tackler. We’ve seen him ship some huge hits, and never each nickel cornerback brings the lumber. The Bears made a sensible transfer in shifting him to the slot and holding him there, and that most likely has expedited his growth. He’s one purpose a younger secondary has a vibrant future.
Do you see a situation the place the Bears commerce out of No. 1 and seize a QB aside from Caleb Williams/Drake Maye? — @beardown3354
Anything is feasible if the Bears certainly enter the draft with a plan to pick a quarterback. I wouldn’t slim the dialog to solely Williams and Maye, and there’s no method the workforce is at that time. It has to fastidiously analyze LSU’s Jayden Daniels and discover out every part there may be to find out about Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy if he chooses to enter the draft after the Wolverines’ season is full.
There are two key causes I consider this situation is unlikely.
First, at 6-9, the Bears’ personal draft decide could be No. 8 based mostly on the present standings. With one other win, it may transfer decrease, and victories over each the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers would put the Bears at 8-9 and sure out of the highest 10. Your situation could be simpler to ponder if the Bears had been sitting at Nos. 1 and 5.
It will get harder to check the quarterback the workforce desires being out there at No. 8 or No. 10 or decrease. That would get very dangerous, after which you would need to take into consideration contingency plans for buying and selling up. The solely method this turns into extra possible is that if the Bears begin the draft by buying and selling down from No. 1. There are so many variables, however that’s the primary level I might make — the decrease the Bears’ personal decide is, the trickier your plan turns into to execute.
Second, and possibly most necessary, is the Bears are going to speculate a TON of time in analyzing quarterbacks for this draft. We’d be kidding ourselves if we mentioned that course of hasn’t already began. They’re going to spend months weighing the professionals and cons of all of the choices. Eventually Ryan Poles and his workers will attain a conclusion and stack their board on the place with grades for every quarterback. Logic would let you know that info finally will probably be shared with President/CEO Kevin Warren and sure Chairman George McCaskey in a setting the place Poles and his workers clarify how they arrived at this closing dedication.
Just for the sake of debate, let’s say the Bears wind up with a quarterback aside from Williams or Maye as their No. 1. Would having Daniels/McCarthy/Player X on the prime of their board current a possibility for the Bears to get that participant with out utilizing the No. 1 decide? It’s attainable. There could be danger, although, as a result of it might take just one different workforce to have the identical participant on the prime of its board with the means to pick him, after which that plan could be foiled.
If the Bears are intent on drafting a quarterback, I don’t know that they’ll afford to attend to pick the man on the prime of their board. If they’ve conviction of their grades — they usually must — they need to take the quarterback at No. 1 and never danger a situation wherein they might lose management of the state of affairs.
Imagine if Poles and his workers current their rankings to Warren and McCaskey and are available out of the draft with out getting their top-graded quarterback. If that participant goes on to turn out to be a star for no matter workforce will get him, that might doom everybody concerned except the Bears struck gold with the quarterback they wound up with.
If Justin Fields isn’t the quarterback going ahead, is the operating recreation not nearly as good, not solely due to his speeding gone but additionally the specter of having to account for him holding it? — @jtbarczak
Fields’ capability as a runner — he leads the workforce with 585 yards (5.6 common) — and the priority defenses have for him definitely are advantages for the offense. After a season-high 250 yards on the bottom in Sunday’s victory over the Arizona Cardinals, the Bears improved to No. 2 within the league in speeding, averaging 142.1 yards. The Baltimore Ravens are tops at 159.7.
If you eliminated all of Fields’ yards, the Bears would rank twentieth in speeding at 103.1, simply forward of the Kansas City Chiefs. However, that’s not accounting for a substitute quarterback producing some speeding yardage. Tyson Bagent rushed for 105 yards on 21 carries in 4 begins. Fields is averaging 53.2 speeding yards per begin. Bagent averaged 26.3. That’s a good-sized hole however possibly not as huge as you’d have imagined with out wanting into the numbers.
A real reply to your query would depend upon who could be enjoying quarterback instead of Fields. If the substitute is an honest mover with some velocity, the general operating numbers would dip however I feel the bottom recreation would stay a power. That’s evidenced by the actual fact the Bears have been worthwhile on the bottom with three completely different operating backs — Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson. The relative power of a speeding offense begins with the power of the offensive line.
If the Bears find yourself with the No. 1 decide, wouldn’t it profit them and provides them extra leverage for a possible commerce by not asserting plans with Justin Fields or the decide? — @jagaldos50
I’ve gotten a few questions alongside these traces and I’m slightly puzzled. You can’t personal extra leverage than having the No. 1 decide. You actually don’t have to play poker. If the Bears have the No. 1 decide and wish to choose a quarterback and get draft capital in return for Fields, they’ll preserve their plan beneath wraps for so long as they like. Eventually they’ll have to buy Fields. The sooner they try this, the extra potential groups are concerned. The extra groups which are concerned, the extra affords they’ll subject. The extra affords they subject, the extra negotiating they’ll do. What profit would there be in including suspense to the state of affairs?
A workforce contemplating including a quarterback by way of commerce or free company usually desires to have that transfer accomplished sooner relatively than later so it could actually tackle different wants and desires on the roster. What’s a timetable for this? I do not know. I’m not sure the Bears have reached a conclusion at this level. No strikes can formally occur till the brand new league 12 months begins on March 13, however if you happen to recall again to 2018 within the week main as much as Super Bowl LII, the Kansas City Chiefs agreed to phrases of a commerce that despatched quarterback Alex Smith to Washington. That was within the closing week of January.
I do know the Bears don’t have to play a leverage recreation in the event that they personal the No. 1 decide. It certain seems prefer it’s headed that method too. In that occasion, the ball will probably be in GM Ryan Poles’ courtroom and we’ll see what he desires to do at quarterback.
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Source: www.bostonherald.com