Justin Fields has another begin to persuade the Chicago Bears brass he might be the quarterback of the longer term. The Bears end their season Sunday towards the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field (3:25 p.m., CBS-2).
Brad Biggs solutions questions on basic supervisor Ryan Poles, Fields’ future, hypotheticals and far more within the newest Bears mailbag.
Ryan Poles was in Kansas City when the Chiefs had Alex Smith, a serviceable and even widespread quarterback, and traded as much as the No. 10 spot to decide on Patrick Mahomes. Fast-forward to 2024 and Ryan Poles finds himself on the precipice of the same scenario, solely this time he’s in cost. Poles has made shrewd selections with an eye fixed to the longer term, and Ted Phillips would probably have greenlighted something to repeat the KC method. But does Poles have sufficient autonomy with Kevin Warren if he needs to execute a change this seismic? — Kamal T., North Smithfield, R.I.
Interesting query and fairly a bit to unpack right here. The Chiefs had legit success with Smith, who arrived in 2013, Andy Reid’s first season in Kansas City, and I believe referring to him as “serviceable” most likely undersells him. Smith was 41-20 because the starter via 4 seasons because the starter there, going 11-4 in that function in 2016 when the Chiefs received the AFC West. He was chosen to the Pro Bowl after the 2013 and 2016 seasons. He threw 76 landing passes with 28 interceptions in these 4 years, finishing 64.5% of his passes. The Chiefs reached the conclusion Smith wasn’t the participant who was going to take them to the best ranges and Mahomes would possibly simply be that man.
Smith remained the starter throughout Mahomes’ rookie season and had arguably his greatest season with the Chiefs, passing for 4,042 yards in 15 video games with 26 touchdowns and solely 5 interceptions, incomes a 3rd Pro Bowl nod. The Chiefs traded Smith to Washington after that season and Mahomes has develop into a future Hall of Famer who probably may have a statue constructed exterior the stadium at some point.
Based on what Poles and Warren mentioned about one another over the summer season, they’ve a powerful working relationship and actual belief has been developed in a brief time frame. You don’t envision Poles getting permission to swap a second-round choose for Montez Sweat after which signal him to a $98 million extension if the powers that be don’t think about his talents and imaginative and prescient. Poles doesn’t must get approval for every little thing he does however he has to run one thing of that magnitude by Warren and possession.
I consider Poles has greater than sufficient autonomy to take the Bears in any route he chooses, together with at quarterback. If he doesn’t have that energy, he’s not the fitting man for the job. Will he want to clarify the pondering behind his choice? It’s solely pure his superiors would need to know what and why. But I’d be surprised if Poles doesn’t have full management of the soccer operation. Chairman George McCaskey has a longtime monitor report of hiring soccer of us and permitting them freedom to carry out the job as they see match. I can’t see something that has occurred since Warren was employed as a layer between Poles and possession that may alter that dynamic. Warren strikes me because the form of boss who needs to be stored within the loop, who might be an occasional sounding board and will likely be keen to offer all essential sources. I don’t suppose he’s going to aim to seize the steering wheel on soccer issues.
Do you consider how Sunday goes may have a big say within the route of the offseason? — @jpoch1983
The rivalry with the Packers is a particular factor for the McCaskey household as it’s for followers. George McCaskey may have an actual bounce in his step strolling to the parking zone Sunday night time at Lambeau Field if the Bears are victorious and may knock the Packers out of the playoffs.
But let’s take a step again and try to take away emotion from the dialog. The Packers are 8-8. They have a first-year starter at quarterback in Jordan Love. They are twenty first in whole protection and twenty eighth towards the run. They have the youngest roster within the league. What I’m saying is that this isn’t a matchup towards the Packers on the peak of their power with former quarterback Aaron Rodgers. This is a middle-of-the-road opponent that’s, in quite a lot of methods, much like the Bears by way of being younger and having some ascending gamers. From that standpoint, I don’t know why this sport would rely extra when it comes time to make selections.
A victory could be a terrific method for the Bears to enter the offseason. It would give them a 3-3 report within the division and could be their fifth win within the last six video games. They would enter the offseason with the momentum that may make you marvel in regards to the trajectory the Detroit Lions took from the 2022 season into 2023.
But from a soccer perspective — once more, we’re attempting to take away emotion from the dialogue — this sport is one-seventeenth of the season. I can’t see a motive why the result Sunday could be extra important than wins towards the Falcons or Cardinals or a loss to the Browns. Yes, I believe coach Matt Eberflus, with seven victories this season, is properly positioned to return in 2024.
Hypothetically, how do you sq. the Bears not choosing up Justin Fields’ fifth-year possibility whereas additionally passing on a quarterback at No. 1? These actions collectively would appear inconsistent if that’s the route the Bears go. — @wickywoowoo1
We don’t know what route the Bears are going to decide on at quarterback within the offseason, and I’m undecided they’ve that reply simply but. If they elect to maintain Fields, they must choose up or decline the choice 12 months for 2025 in his contract by May 3.
Those two actions mixed — declining the choice and passing on a quarterback on the high of the draft — would appear incongruous to me. My opinion all alongside is that the Bears must be all-in on Fields after this season — that means ready to open discussions a couple of contract extension — or out. That’s simply my opinion, and I’m positive some disagree. I’ve thought that method as a result of we’ve recognized for nearly your complete season the Bears would have a choose at or close to the highest of the draft and, because it’s turned out, they personal the No. 1 alternative because of the commerce with the Carolina Panthers.
There’s no telling what sort of draft capital the staff may have in future years. So if the Bears like a quarterback on this class — that query nonetheless must be answered — I believe you’re taking a look at a name between extending Fields or in search of to commerce him and draft a alternative. If the Bears don’t like a quarterback on this class, they may maintain Fields and may type via what they need to do with the fifth-year possibility.
Some will suggest the staff doesn’t must go all-in with Fields after this season as a result of it has two extra years of management (2024 with a cap hit of $6 million and 2025 fifth-year possibility at an estimated $23 million) at an inexpensive fee earlier than reaching a degree at which the franchise tag might are available in play. I might not utterly low cost that chance, but it surely appears the Bears could be driving the fence with Fields — not prepared to totally commit and never prepared to maneuver on. You’re kind of in limbo there hoping you have got a legit franchise quarterback whereas working to enhance different areas of the roster and on the similar time hoping there isn’t one other C.J. Stroud on this draft class. From my perspective, groups that select a wait-and-see interval with their quarterback often wind up disenchanted.
It’s a novel place as a result of the Bears have two first-round picks, and one is on the high of the draft. It’s a really completely different dialog in the event that they don’t have the choose from the Panthers or aren’t sitting at No. 1.
Generally groups have an excellent thought about the place issues are headed with a younger quarterback after three years and if the Bears straddled the fence with Fields, it could be a little bit of an outlier. I believe GM Ryan Poles can say he did lots to provide Fields a chance to succeed this season by buying vast receiver DJ Moore within the commerce with the Panthers and utilizing a first-round choose on proper sort out Darnell Wright whereas additionally signing proper guard Nate Davis in free company. Moore has been excellent — possibly even higher than anticipated — and move safety has been considerably higher than in 2022.
Fields was implausible in Sunday’s 37-17 victory over the Atlanta Falcons, throwing with timing and accuracy and making a handful of electrical performs together with his legs. It got here on the heels of a ho-hum effort towards the lowly Arizona Cardinals. The consistency piece has been fleeting, and there’s one sport remaining in Green Bay, another alternative with 30 or so throws to be evaluated.
The Bears are very near being a playoff staff. I consider if they carry in a brand new QB, they’re setting again the staff at the very least a few years whereas he learns the NFL sport. Thoughts? — @legendzombie
If they go that route and get the fitting quarterback, it’s not going to set them again. The Houston Texans are 9-7 and within the playoff hunt with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, and the solid he has had round him in Houston hasn’t been nice. He doesn’t have a DJ Moore to throw to, and the Texans have had a revolving door at a number of spots on the offensive line due to accidents.
Ryan Poles mentioned when he was employed his purpose was to guide the franchise right into a place the place it might have sustained success, one thing that has been fleeting in these elements because the Bears haven’t had consecutive profitable seasons since 2005-06. I’d argue the only biggest motive they’ve been unable to duplicate that’s as a result of they’ve had persistently common to properly under common quarterback play. To this level, Poles has not regarded like a man in search of shortcuts to success or making selections that may assist proper now however finally aren’t going to hold the staff to the overarching purpose.
Could there be bumps within the street with a rookie quarterback? I’d be shocked if there weren’t. The Bears have had bumps within the street all through this season. They’re nonetheless struggling to get consistency as a passing offense — and I’m speaking about coaches and all offensive gamers — and they’re coming into Week 18. The Bears are twenty seventh within the league in passing (they completed thirty second in 2022), so in the event that they exchange the quarterback, it’s not as in the event that they’re going to tumble within the rankings with a rookie starter. If they get the fitting man, they may climb.
If Matt Eberflus returns, as experiences point out, is the 2024 season “win or else”? If that’s the case, I worry the traditional Bears misalignment continues between the coach, GM and QB. — @rradulski
Fair query, and I addressed this Monday after the win towards the Falcons. My take is that whereas Eberflus may very well be perceived as coming into a “must win” season in 2024, it’s fully attainable the ability brokers at Halas Hall won’t share that sentiment. Perhaps Eberflus is on a lot steadier floor and Ryan Poles, Kevin Warren and George McCaskey are fairly proud of the work he has finished and the way he has navigated obstacles and challenges via the primary two seasons. If that’s the case — and I’m merely presenting this as an thought — then Eberflus shouldn’t be considered as a man on the recent seat initially of the 2024 season.
“If you are doing things properly, which has never been done there before, you have to commit to three years of the quarterback, coach and the GM,” one league govt mentioned in a dialog about this subject. “Otherwise you’re doing the very same factor that has been finished again and again and over the place you modify the quarterback after which a 12 months or two later, change the coach otherwise you change the coach and then you definately change the quarterback. There’s been no continuity between these positions over the past a number of years. If you’re going to maintain Poles, superb. If you’re going to maintain Eberflus, you possibly can’t give Eberflus a brand new quarterback after which hearth him a 12 months later.
“If you hearth Eberflus a 12 months from now and have Caleb (Williams), now you’re giving that subsequent coach the identical (expletive) you gave (Matt) Nagy, the place he’s pondering, ‘Well, (Mitch Trubisky) isn’t my quarterback.’ Well, you took the job, so he’s your quarterback.
“It’s fascinating as a result of in some unspecified time in the future, the place are these candidates going to return from? All of those head coaches which can be getting fired. Who are going to be the seven to 10 new head coaches you’ll rent? Now you’re hiring seven to 10 offensive coordinators to go together with these guys. And there are going to be another OCs fired, proper? Look at this 12 months. Half the league had a alternative at offensive coordinator. There had been 16 new offensive coordinators. Now you’re going to do this once more this 12 months. Where the hell are these folks coming from? Where are you going to seek out them?
“I don’t know what they’re going to do, but they can’t keep going through this cycle where it’s not aligned all the way.”
Do you suppose the Bears assault the second edge want within the deep free-agent class, within the deep draft class or in a commerce state of affairs? — @imtracti0n
For starters, I don’t suppose the crop of free-agent move rushers goes to look fairly as nice in mid-March when the brand new league 12 months begins because it seems proper now. Franchise-type edge rushers of their prime not often attain the open market. Will there be some proficient gamers accessible? For positive.
In an ideal state of affairs, the Bears would draft to fill this spot. I like the thought of Montez Sweat, who turns 28 simply earlier than the beginning of subsequent season, and a youthful participant. But saying that and making it occur, we’ll must see. I additionally don’t consider this can be a loaded class for edge rushers. There definitely isn’t a Myles Garrett sitting on the market who would actually take the lid off the dialogue relating to what Ryan Poles ought to do with the No. 1 choose. As if the lid isn’t already off.
It was an encouraging staff effort for the Bears of their victory over Atlanta, and Justin Fields elevated his play towards the Falcons’ man protection. However encouraging Justin’s efficiency was Sunday, will probably be tougher for Fields to repeat that efficiency towards the Packers’ zone protection. I hope I’m fallacious and Justin performs properly, however I recall that he struggles towards zone towards man protection. Can you provide QB1′s statistics when he’s going towards man-to-man protection vs. zone protection? The info you supply will give perception into how the Bears method what they may do with the No. 1 choose within the 2024 draft. Full disclosure: I need Justin to be QB1 for the Bears, however Justin is 9-27 as a starter and sadly (or relying on who you speak to, happily), the numbers are nonetheless there. — Steve Ok., South Bend, Ind.
Fields has been extra profitable this season when opponents are in man protection, and the Falcons leaned closely on that, enjoying man on practically 90% of his drop-backs within the Bears’ 37-17 victory.
According to the NFL’s Next Gen statistics, listed below are Fields’ numbers versus man and zone coverages this season:
- Man: 54.1%, 11 TDs, 3 INTs, 1,066 yards, 6.8 yards per try, 81.4 QBR
- Zone: 66.0%, 5 TDs, 6 INTs, 1,348 yards, 6.9 yards per try, 26.4 QBR
There is a big hole in his QBR for a few causes. It’s simpler for Fields to do harm as a runner towards groups enjoying man protection as a result of defenders are operating with their backs to the quarterback. Zone protection has extra eyes on the passer. He additionally has struggled at instances to seek out throwing home windows towards zone protection. Fields’ QBR versus man protection is the fourth-highest within the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott is tops at 90.8, and he actually doesn’t pull the ball down and run fairly often.
Fields’ 26.4 QBR versus zone protection ranks twenty eighth within the league. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence is tops at 72.5 adopted by Houston Texans rookie C.J. Stroud (72.3).
I’d think about you’re appropriate and the Bears will see a heavy quantity of zone protection Sunday at Lambeau Field. The Packers performed zone protection 79% of the time within the season opener at Soldier Field. On the season, Fields has confronted man protection on 44.2% of drop-backs and zone on 55.8% of drop-backs.
Drafting a quarterback, even close to the highest of the primary spherical, is very dangerous. Recent examples embrace Mitch Trubisky, Trey Lance, Mac Jones and Zach Wilson. For each Patrick Mahomes there are a number of Carson Wentzes. Therefore, wouldn’t it’s much less dangerous for the Bears to proceed to work towards bettering Justin Fields and proceed to construct round him within the draft and free company, particularly given their bleak historical past drafting quarterbacks? — Jim A., Plymouth, Minn.
There’s additionally an opportunity for a Joe Burrow or a Justin Herbert or perhaps a Tua Tagovailoa, and if the Bears owned a choose close to the highest of the 2020 draft — they had been with no choice as they paid off the remaining steadiness of the Khalil Mack commerce — I believe they’d have fired on a kind of quarterbacks as a result of coming off the 2019 season, the entrance workplace and training workers had been prepared to maneuver on from Trubisky. There’s danger concerned with any choice, and there aren’t any positive issues. I don’t consider Ryan Poles could be discouraged by the Bears’ historical past on the place if he sees a prospect he likes.
One of the explanations the Bears’ historical past of drafting quarterbacks within the first spherical is so bleak, to make use of your phrase, is that they haven’t taken sufficient swings at it. The Bears have drafted a quarterback within the first spherical solely 11 instances and stunningly went from 1952 to 1981 with out taking one. You would suppose the franchise that introduced the ahead move to skilled soccer would have been a bit extra pushed to handle the place.
- 2021: Justin Fields
- 2017: Mitch Trubisky
- 2003: Rex Grossman
- 1999: Cade McNown
- 1987: Jim Harbaugh
- 1982: Jim McMahon
- 1951: Bob Williams
- 1948: Bobby Layne
- 1946: Johnny Lujack
- 1941: Frankie Albert
- 1939: Sid Luckman
What are the probabilities Jaylon Johnson is re-signed? And will it’s a franchise tag? — @johnnmatrixx
My greatest guess is the Bears will wind up utilizing the franchise tag (probably) or transition tag (much less probably) with a purpose to create extra time to barter a multiyear extension with Johnson. Of course, it could be preferable in the event that they get a deal finished earlier than having to make use of the tag, however many instances these conditions have a method of dragging out slowly. I believe odds are good Johnson is in a Bears uniform subsequent season, however you by no means know the way these items will end up.
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Source: www.bostonherald.com