WASHINGTON — Six in 10 swing-state voters say President Joe Biden bears duty for a surge in migrants on the U.S.-Mexico border, a downbeat sign for his reelection prospects as Republicans largely keep away from blame on the difficulty, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult ballot discovered.
Biden once more trails Donald Trump in every of seven swing states within the month-to-month survey, and lags Trump 42% to 48% throughout all these states in a head-to-head match-up. The former president’s lead grows to 9 proportion factors when third-party candidates are included.
The economic system stays voters’ chief concern on the poll field by a large margin. Yet a better share of respondents cited immigration as their most essential challenge within the 2024 election than in any earlier installment of the ballot, whereas the proportion who mentioned the identical in regards to the economic system fell to the bottom but.
The narrowing hole means that GOP efforts to place immigration on the middle of the marketing campaign are working, particularly in opposition to a backdrop of a resilient job market and a drumbeat of border safety protection in conservative media.
Biden’s comparative weak point on the difficulty comes as Trump urges his get together’s lawmakers to dam a border invoice earlier than the election so as to deprive the president of a coverage victory on this space.
The ballot findings broadly are a warning signal to Biden, whose allies are urging his marketing campaign to step up its efforts as Trump has all however clinched the GOP nomination. Respondents belief Trump greater than the president on a variety of points, together with the economic system, immigration, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, ties with China, infrastructure, housing and crime.
Trust Gap
The ballot’s general margin of error is 1 proportion level, with wider margins of three to five factors in every of the surveyed states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump’s lead in many of the states is throughout the margin of error. Trump gained six of the seven in 2016 to pave his path to the White House; Biden gained six of the seven in 2020.
The 61% of swing-state voters who view Biden as not less than considerably liable for the rise in migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border is way greater than the 38% who mentioned the identical about Republicans in Congress or the 30% who mentioned so in regards to the Trump administration.
Respondents have been additionally greater than twice as prone to say Democrats in Congress are “very responsible” for the state of affairs as their Republican counterparts.
The belief hole between the 2 presidential candidates on the difficulty is rising. By a 22-point margin, swing-state voters say they belief Trump over Biden to deal with immigration, up from 17 factors within the December ballot.
While Biden will get extra of the political blame, swing-state voters additionally acknowledged that geopolitical issues outdoors the U.S. are driving the border disaster. Large majorities — greater shares than blame Biden — cited corruption, financial situations, famine and battle as elements behind the rise in migration.
The choice for immigration as a prime challenge was pronounced amongst Trump voters — and significantly Republican males. Among voters aged 65 and older, the economic system and immigration at the moment are tied for the highest challenge.
The ballot was performed Jan. 16 to Jan. 22, earlier than Biden pledged to “shut down the border right now” if Congress passes a bipartisan invoice giving him emergency authorities.
Senate negotiators are near asserting a deal on migration coverage and Ukraine assist, however the prospects for the proposal are dim within the House the place the speaker and conservatives are set to oppose it. The border deal would make it tougher to use for asylum within the U.S. and ease the power of the president to deport border-crossers when migration flows attain sure ranges. Trump has urged Republicans to reject the overture, saying “a bad border deal is far worse than no border deal.”
Migrant encounters alongside the southwestern border hit a document excessive of 302,034 within the month of December, in response to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Voters within the southwestern state of Arizona have been probably to say they’ve seen a rise in immigrants of their state. But the immigration challenge additionally resonated in states removed from the border. In each swing state besides Michigan, a majority of voters mentioned they’ve seen extra immigrants over the previous couple of years.
‘Pinning Blame’
Only 29% of respondents mentioned the nationwide economic system is headed in the suitable route, however bigger shares mentioned their very own metropolis or state’s state of affairs is on monitor.
And whereas the proportion of swing-state voters who mentioned the economic system was a “very important” challenge for them held regular from December, a smaller share named it as their prime challenge — 36%, down from 40%.
Meanwhile, 13% of respondents picked immigration as their most essential challenge, up from 10% final month.
“As the economy improves and that’s less important to voters, there’s going to be space for voters to be concerned about other issues,” mentioned Caroline Bye, vice chairman of Morning Consult. “It’s clear from these results that immigration is an important issue. It’s an issue that’s going to be key to this election. And so far Republicans have been successful in pinning blame on President Biden.”
Some 51% mentioned they trusted Trump extra to handle the economic system, in comparison with 33% who mentioned they trusted Biden extra. Bloomberg News and Morning Consult are conducting polls month-to-month within the run-up to the November presidential election.
Still, the ballot affords some vibrant spots for Biden and Democrats. One is that the share of voters who named democracy as their prime challenge has elevated. It’s now the foremost concern of 21% of Democratic voters, second solely to the economic system at 25% and much forward of abortion at 11%. Biden has repeatedly painted Trump as a menace to democracy.
METHODOLOGY
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult ballot surveyed 4,956 registered voters in seven swing states: 800 registered voters in Arizona, 798 in Georgia, 703 in Michigan, 457 in Nevada, 706 in North Carolina, 795 in Pennsylvania and 697 in Wisconsin. The surveys have been performed on-line from Jan. 16 to 22 and the aggregated knowledge throughout the seven swing states have been weighted to approximate a goal pattern of swing state registered voters based mostly on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital standing, residence possession, 2020 presidential vote and state. State-level knowledge have been weighted to approximate a goal pattern of registered voters within the respective state based mostly on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital standing, residence possession, and 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 proportion level throughout the seven states; 3 proportion factors in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; 4 proportion factors in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and 5 proportion factors in Nevada.
(Bloomberg writers Jennah Haque, Elena Mejia and Erik Wasson contributed to this story.)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
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