Gold Outlook: The new fiscal year is starting from April 1. In such a situation, many investors will be thinking of building their portfolio afresh. Experts believe that whenever planning in Nivea’s planning, it is better to keep some portion (10-15%) of gold in the portfolio. Gold has always been a stable return. Gold returns are guaranteed in the long term. Anyway, if we look at the history of the past 10 years, then the coming few months have been the best in terms of returns. Gold is the most expensive, especially in April and August. Talking about these 10 years, there has been some pressure on gold from April to August only in May.
Gold is 22% weaker than its record high
Gold prices remain weak this year. In the US, the fall in gold has increased further as the 10-year bond yield has increased. Bond yield reached 14-month high. Gold is selling about 22 percent cheaper than the record high. Gold is trading at Rs 43900 per 10 gram on MCX in the trading of 31 March. Whereas in August last year, gold had strengthened to a record level beyond 56200. That is, gold has come to a discount of around Rs 12300 per 10 grams in about 8 months. Experts are considering this huge discount a good opportunity for new investment in gold.
Bond yields rose sharply where gold became less attractive. At the same time, the rally in the stock market has also kept investors away from gold. After record highs, many investors have made profits in gold. The elimination of the corona virus has also reduced the attractiveness of asset class like gold due to vaccination. Weakness in gold demand has also been the reason for the fall in gold.
History of gold boom in the coming days
If we look at the return history of the last 10 years, then the next few months have been better in terms of gold. There has been a history of gold boom in April, June, July and August.
April to August: Average return in 10 years
April: 2.38%
May: (-) 0.16%
June: 1.45%
July: 1.47%
August: 6.59%
(Source: Kedia Advisory)
(Note: The average returns for January, February, October and December have also been positive, but it is weaker than April and August.)
Fast will come in gold ahead
Ajay Kedia, director of Kedia Advisory, believes that in the next 6 months, the target of 52500 rupees / 10 grams in gold has been given. Another wave of corona virus is being seen all over the world. Its influence is very high in countries of India, US and Europe. If this danger increases, then the attraction will be increased once again about asset class considered safe haven like gold. He says that for the past few days, fluctuations are also being seen in the equity market. If the cases of corona continue to increase, then this decline may increase. In big countries including the US, it will take time for the economy to become completely normal again. Further, central banks have also indicated buying in gold. Gold will be supported by this.
(Note: We have given information here based on the interaction with the experts and the report of the brokerage house. Investments in the market are subject to risk. So get the opinion of the expert before investing.)
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