The mud is settling. The harm is deep. And the query stays, particularly within the absence of any clear course from Vladimir Putin – what occurs subsequent?
Expect the Kremlin to ship a bit extra of the “business as usual”, “nothing to see here” Putin diary appointment movies.
Russia-Ukraine newest: Wagner boss Prigozhin’s whereabouts unknown as rival seen for first time
We have video of the defence minister Sergei Shoigu inspecting a Western command ahead working base apparently within the “special military operation zone”, supposedly this morning, although Telegram chatter is busily debating whether or not it was filmed earlier than the coup befell.
And Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was presumably instructed in no unsure phrases to maintain his head down in Belarus in the intervening time, even when he’s not the kind who likes to maintain quiet for lengthy.
So what’s going to occur to the highest army command, who’ve simply weathered weeks of criticism and a short-lived however harmful armed insurrection?
How a lot credibility do they nonetheless have within the eyes of their males when 1000’s if not lots of of 1000’s serving within the Russian armed forces will need to have watched these Prigozhin movies and felt a couple of residence truths?
Prigozhin was good at taking the facet of his troops, stating the pointlessness of the entire Ukraine train, raging towards the hideous and pointless lack of life.
That should imply deal should you’re sitting on the frontlines questioning should you’re subsequent.
Read extra:
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Putin famously favours loyalty and Shoigu and his chief of the overall employees Valery Gerasimov have been nothing however loyal.
The commander-in-chief may even not need to look as if he has been pressured to bow to strain, particularly not from Prigozhin who he has simply denounced as a traitor.
But there may be now hypothesis that he’s casting round for options.
Governor of the Tula area, Alexei Dyumin, is a kind of talked about as a potential Shoigu successor.
If there’s a reshuffling, then it’ll in all probability occur as soon as the mud has settled.
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It was additionally obvious from the entire contracts debacle that Shoigu – and subsequently Putin – will need to have determined that the Ukraine struggle might and may now solely be dealt with by the ministry of defence and that each one different freelance models, Wagner being essentially the most outstanding, must be integrated into the fold.
That was a sign that Shoigu was on the up.
It was in all probability additionally the rationale why Prigozhin determined to probability it, demanding Wagner be seen on an equal however separate footing to the Russian armed forces. Folie de grandeur, maybe.
So if Putin replaces Shoigu now, he seems weaker nonetheless.
Though I’ll end with the caveat, given Saturday’s lightning occasions, that each one is unpredictable and stays so, regardless of the obvious calm of the final 24 hours.
Source: information.sky.com”