For somebody who has been concerned on this place as usually as anybody in baseball, Orioles govt vp and basic supervisor Mike Elias will not be an enormous fan.
“It’s a heck of a thing, picking 1-1,” Elias stated final week. “I don’t really like doing it.”
Having the primary total decide within the Major League Baseball draft, because the Orioles do Sunday, means having the league’s worst report the earlier season — though that may change in 2023 as a part of the lottery system beneath the brand new collective bargaining settlement. The Orioles technically tied the Arizona Diamondbacks with the majors’ worst report at 52-110 in 2021, however acquired the best choice as a result of they’d a worse report in 2019. (The golf equipment had matching 25-35 information throughout the shortened 2020 season.)
There’s additionally the aspect of strain utilized to each the crew and participant in that spot. Elias is actually aware of it.
He was within the beginner scouting division of the Houston Astros’ entrance workplace after they made three straight No. 1 picks from 2012 to 2014, and when he turned Baltimore’s GM in November 2018, he inherited the 2019 high decide that turned catcher Adley Rutschman. This yr’s first total decide marks the ninth top-five draft alternative Elias has been related to in 11 years of the fashionable draft system.
Before Elias and the Orioles open the league’s 20-round draft, right here’s what it’s essential to know.
It’s not clear who they’ll decide first total.
The Orioles enter draft day with 5 gamers in consideration, Elias and director of draft operations Brad Ciolek have stated. They haven’t revealed who these gamers are, however the group is believed to be the identical quintet atop most public rankings of draft prospects: Georgia highschool outfielder Druw Jones, Florida highschool infielder Termarr Johnson, Oklahoma highschool infielder Jackson Holliday, Florida highschool outfielder Elijah Green and Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee.
Jones and Holliday are the sons of former MLB All-Stars Andruw Jones and Matt Holliday, whereas Green’s father, Eric Green, spent a decade within the NFL, together with three years with the Ravens. Jones is taken into account the highest prospect within the class, ranked first in most public rankings, however a number of betting websites have Lee as the favourite to go to Baltimore. All of Elias’ first-round picks with the Orioles have been faculty place gamers.
“We don’t expect there’s going to be a broad consensus in every corner of the organization of who to take … but we’ll have somebody that everyone’s happy with,” Elias stated. “I think there’s enough consensus around how good these players are that I can’t imagine there will be too many frowns about it in our scouting department or in our analytics department or whatever when we make the pick.”
The Orioles have used latest days to do make-up work on varied gamers obtainable all through the draft, speaking to coaches, teammates, lecturers and others of their lives, whereas additionally getting insights from the membership’s scouting and analytics departments. From there, it’s about ordering their draft board.
“The one thing that stands out is the depth of talent at the top of the class,” Ciolek stated. “This reminds me very much of the 2019 class with Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt, Andrew Vaughn, Riley Greene, a lot of guys that are showing their talents at the major league level right now, so it’s certainly a good year to pick at the top of the draft class.”
Their bonus pool is the second largest in historical past.
The solely crew that’s had a bigger signing bonus pool on this draft format than the Orioles’ practically $17 million allotment this yr was the 2015 Astros, who had two of the primary 5 picks. Elias was Houston’s beginner scouting director.
Baltimore has the primary decide in every spherical, in addition to aggressive steadiness picks at thirty third and 67th total, the latter acquired in a commerce with the Miami Marlins. The Orioles have 5 of the primary 81 picks.
Each decide within the first 10 rounds of the draft is assigned a slot worth, with every crew’s pool representing the mixed complete of these figures. Teams are in a position to give draftees bonuses above or under their respective slot values as long as the mixture quantity doesn’t exceed their pool. The solely penalty for going lower than 5% above the pool is an overage tax, whereas something larger than that prompts misplaced draft picks. Any bonus past $125,000 given to a participant taken after the tenth spherical additionally counts towards the pool.
This yr’s No. 1 decide has a slot worth of $8.842 million.
“This is an enormous opportunity,” Elias stated. “It’s a big financial commitment. We’re going to have a lot of possibilities because of the picks that we have and the finances and the way the system works with the overage tax.”
Each of the Orioles’ earlier three first-round picks beneath Elias — Rutschman first total in 2019, outfielder Heston Kjerstad second total in 2020 and outfielder Colton Cowser fifth total in 2021 — signed for beneath their slot worth, with the Orioles in a position to direct these financial savings towards proficient gamers chosen later who may need been tough to signal in any other case. Taking Kjerstad and signing him for greater than $2.5 million beneath slot worth allowed the Orioles to draft and signal highschool prospects Coby Mayo and Carter Baumler within the fourth and fifth rounds; Baseball America ranks the pair as Baltimore’s fifth- and Nineteenth-best prospects.
Still, that execution has led to suspicions the Orioles gained’t take the participant outwardly considered as the perfect obtainable, however as an alternative the one with whom they will get the perfect deal. Elias has not essentially dissuaded that perception by noting the membership will “try to extract the maximum possible value from this entire draft.”
But that additionally requires getting the participant they considered as the most suitable choice with their first decide.
“We take the player that we want to take and that we want to start our draft with and that we feel is going to kick off the maximization of the draft class,” Elias stated. “Rest assured that we are going into any high pick that we have with the goal of maximizing the output of that pick itself.”
Their pitcher development gained’t finish, however their highschool one would possibly.
As you may need seen with the group of 5 gamers considered in consideration, the Orioles gained’t be taking a pitcher first total.
Many of the highest arms on this draft class received damage in latest months, hampering their inventory, however that doesn’t imply Baltimore gained’t goal them with others picks. The Orioles haven’t drafted a pitcher sooner than the fifth spherical beneath Elias, taking Baumler in 2020 and Carlos Tavera in 2021.
“We’re very cognizant of the fact we have not invested much draft capital in pitching, and I do think that’s reflected in our prospect list when you look at it,” Elias stated. “But that doesn’t mean we’re not going to try to get good pitchers that will pitch for the major league Baltimore Orioles.”
He famous “there are myriad avenues for bringing those pitchers in.” Given their stockpile of younger place gamers, it gained’t be a shock if the Orioles ultimately commerce a handful of them to complement their pitching workers.
Baltimore has constructed that group of younger hitters regardless of not taking a highschool place participant with its first decide since drafting star infielder Manny Machado third total in 2010. Under this entrance workplace, faculty bats are prioritized, providing much less danger and extra obtainable info than their highschool counterparts.
“The one thing that we always kind of harp on is, and it’s becoming more prevalent now with high school players, there wasn’t as much data at the start, I would say three or four years ago, as there is now,” Ciolek stated. “For us to feel really confident about a high school player, there has to be more or less some ‘now’ tools that we can kind of sink our teeth into — there has to be production — and also there has to be things that we can help them improve, some ceiling, so to speak.”
They really feel the highschool hitters they’ve drafted early, Gunnar Henderson and Darell Hernaiz in 2019 and Coby Mayo in 2020, match that description. By Sunday evening, we’ll know whether or not they consider Jones, Johnson, Holliday or Green do, too.
Lee, together with down-the-board choices resembling LSU infielder Jacob Berry and Chipola College infielder Cam Collier, would symbolize the Orioles’ fourth straight first-round decide devoted to a school place participant. Collier, a 17-year-old who earned his GED two years early, would be a part of Bryce Harper as the one junior faculty gamers to go first total.
2022 MLB DRAFT
Los Angeles
Rounds 1-2: Sunday, 7 p.m.
Rounds 3-10: Monday, 2 p.m.
Rounds 11-20: Tuesday, 2 p.m.
TV/stream: ESPN, MLB Network, MLB.com
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Source: www.bostonherald.com