It’s laborious to think about the Red Sox enduring a extra crushing setback than what they skilled on Tuesday.
Lucas Giolito, the membership’s greatest offseason acquisition and one of the sturdy beginning pitchers in baseball, is injured and will doubtlessly miss all the season. His absence will go away an infinite void, one the Red Sox gained’t be capable to fill simply.
The full ramifications gained’t be understood for a while, however there’s no sugarcoating it — this information is a catastrophe for the Red Sox and will considerably impression the membership’s capacity to compete in 2024.
Here’s what we all know to this point and the way Giolito’s damage may impression the Red Sox within the brief and long run.
What’s Giolito’s prognosis?
Giolito started experiencing discomfort in his proper elbow after his final begin on Friday, and based on ESPN’s Jeff Passan preliminary imaging confirmed he seemingly has {a partially} torn UCL and flexor pressure which may require season-ending elbow surgical procedure. Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow wouldn’t say whether or not or not surgical procedure will probably be obligatory, however that Giolito has a “real injury” and can miss time in consequence.
“Really tough. Tough for us, tough for Lucas, he’s a guy that takes a lot of pride in his ability to post and that’s certainly something that was attractive to us. I don’t want to speak untilI know exactly what we’re dealing with but I know he’s frustrated and wants to take the ball on Opening Day,” Breslow mentioned. “We’ll evaluate where we are and figure out what the best path forward is.”
If Giolito doesn’t want surgical procedure it’s doable he may nonetheless pitch in 2024, however even in a best-case situation he’d seemingly miss a number of months. If Tommy John surgical procedure is important then Giolito may miss all of this season and a portion of subsequent season as nicely.
The truth Giolito of all individuals is the one to get damage is especially unlucky. The 29-year-old right-hander has been among the many most sturdy pitchers in baseball for the final six years and is coming off a season wherein he ranked amongst MLB’s leaders in begins (33) and innings pitched (184.1).
He was signed particularly to be an innings-eater for a Red Sox membership that routinely struggled to pitch deep into video games final season, and he additionally functionally changed Chris Sale, who was traded the identical weekend Giolito signed after lacking many of the final 4 years with numerous accidents.
Sale, sarcastically, is at the moment wholesome and has been dominant for the Atlanta Braves this spring. If that continues to be the case it could be an particularly painful twist for a Red Sox group that hasn’t been in a position to catch a break these previous few years.
What are the monetary ramifications?
This previous offseason the Red Sox signed Giolito to a two-year, $38.5 million contract with an choose out after the primary season and a vesting choice for 2026. When the deal was struck the expectation was Giolito would pitch this coming season in Boston and probably choose out and re-enter the free agent subsequent winter in the hunt for a much bigger, long-term deal.
Now that deal has blown up in Boston’s face.
The Red Sox pays Giolito $19.25 million every of the following two seasons, and if he undergoes Tommy John surgical procedure he could possibly be sidelined for a majority of that point. Instead of getting a motivated, sturdy starter for 2024 and having $20 million to spend both bringing him again or signing one other free agent starter subsequent winter, the membership is successfully burning that cash this yr and crossing its fingers that he comes again and re-emerges as a workhorse someday in 2025.
Who may fill his spot?
With Giolito sidelined for the foreseeable future, the Red Sox will probably be much more reliant on their younger starters to shoulder the load in 2024.
Red Sox supervisor Alex Cora has already confirmed Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta will open the season within the rotation, and Kutter Crawford was thought-about a heavy favourite to earn a spot as nicely. He needs to be a lock now, leaving two spots up for grabs.
Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck ought to have the perfect probability at rounding out the rotation. Originally the expectation was one in every of them would earn the No. 5 spot and whoever misplaced out would transfer to the bullpen, however now they could each get an opportunity to show themselves as starters. Josh Winckowski stays a contender as nicely, and Breslow pointed to newly signed right-hander Cooper Criswell as a doable choice as nicely.
The massive wild card is Jordan Montgomery.
On one hand, Giolito’s damage may immediate the Red Sox to signal the free agent left-hander, who has been one in every of baseball’s most dependable starters during the last three years and will simply slide into the workhorse spot meant for Giolito. On the opposite hand, the Red Sox have spent all winter working with self-imposed price range constraints and it’s laborious to check possession all of a sudden spending more cash to maintain afloat what was already a fringe playoff contender at greatest.
With practically $20 million in lifeless cash on the books, it feels extra seemingly the Red Sox will merely hand the keys to their younger arms and see how far they will go. That appears to have been the plan all alongside, solely now any semblance of a security internet they as soon as had is gone.
Source: www.bostonherald.com