Seven years in the past, the Houston Astros had been in an analogous state of affairs to the one the Orioles are in now.
The Astros ended a brutal rebuild the earlier yr as the most important shock in Major League Baseball, successful 86 video games and making the postseason in 2015. The Orioles practically did the identical in 2022, climbing out of the rebuild instituted by a few of the identical individuals who operated Houston’s, by successful 84 video games and practically defying the chances to make the playoffs.
The pure results of successful extra video games is a worse place within the draft, and the primary time that Astros regime needed to decide exterior the primary spherical’s high 5, the end result particulars the unpredictable nature of the draft. In 2016, the Astros chosen highschool pitcher Forrest Whitley with the seventeenth decide and have since watched the right-hander go from the game’s high pitching prospect to an injury-prone 25-year-old with an 8.04 profession ERA in Triple-A.
Orioles govt vp and basic supervisor Mike Elias was Houston’s beginner scouting director on the time, and plenty of of his duties had been tied to the draft. Now, he’s in the identical spot with Baltimore that the Astros had been seven years in the past — selecting exterior the highest 5 for the primary time with the No. 17 decide.
While a top-five choice is way from a assure to turn into an on a regular basis main leaguer, the chances for the seventeenth decide are even worse, and Whitley is a latest instance. After he was drafted, the 6-foot-7 pitcher shot up prospect rankings as he posted elite strikeout numbers, however he missed a lot of the 2018 season with a suspension for violating the league’s drug prevention and therapy program. He was nonetheless ranked No. 5 by Baseball America getting into 2019, the best pitcher on the listing, however he’s thrown simply 129 2/3 innings with a 7.01 ERA within the 4 and a half years since. He missed time in 2019 with shoulder discomfort, had the 2020 marketing campaign taken due to the coronavirus pandemic, sat out all of 2021 and most of 2022 as he recovered from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgical procedure and has been out since late May with a lat muscle pressure.
Whitley’s struggles aren’t a cautionary story in regards to the skill to draft a future useful main leaguer at No. 17, however quite an instance for a way the draft is, as cliche as it’s to say, a crapshoot. To illustrate that, right here’s a by-the-numbers take a look at the historic successes and failures of the MLB draft’s seventeenth general picks.
89 2/3
Only as soon as since 1965 have the Orioles owned the No. 17 decide. In 1969, they drafted left-handed pitcher Don Hood out of highschool, and he went on to pitch simply 89 2/3 innings with Baltimore. He reached the majors at 23 years outdated, pitched in 28 video games for the Orioles between 1973 and 1974 and was traded together with Boog Powell to Cleveland in change for Dave Duncan earlier than the 1975 marketing campaign. Hood went on to pitch eight extra seasons with Cleveland, Kansas City, St. Louis and the New York Yankees, amassing a profession 5.3 wins above alternative on Baseball-Reference.
65.5%
In 36 of the 55 drafts between 1965 and 2019 — or 65.5% — the participant taken No. 17 general made it to the foremost leagues. That charge is kind of excessive, but it surely’s a lot worse than the 94.4% charge for No. 1 general picks throughout that very same timeframe. However, as Elias mentioned Thursday, “making the majors is not the end-all of a successful draft pick.” The common WAR for the No. 17 picks who made the majors was 9.2, and there are extra gamers with a WAR under 1.0 (13) than these above 10.0 (11).
4
Four No. 17 picks have performed within the main leagues this season: Seattle Mariners outfielder AJ Pollock, Colorado Rockies first baseman C.J. Cron, Chicago White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson and Cincinnati Reds rookie Matt McLain. While Pollock and Anderson have struggled this yr, these two veterans and Cron have been strong main league gamers for years, all posting above-average numbers to amass a mixed WAR of 52.4. Nearly 16% of the whole WAR from No. 17 picks have come from these three gamers.
673
McLain, in the meantime, may turn into one probably the most profitable No. 17 picks if he continues on his present trajectory. The Reds drafted McLain two summers in the past out of UCLA, and the 23-year-old zoomed by way of the minor leagues to succeed in the majors in simply 673 days. After placing up spectacular numbers within the minors, McLain made his MLB debut May 15 and has since hit .295 with an .880 OPS.
23
McLain was referred to as up too late to be thought of for the All-Star Game, however Pollock, Anderson and Cron have all made appearances within the Midsummer Classic, and so have six different No. 17 picks. The whole variety of All-Star seasons from these 9 gamers is 23.
Undoubtedly the most effective participant to be drafted seventeenth general, Hall of Famer Roy Halladay (1995, Toronto Blue Jays) accounts for eight of these All-Star appearances and his 64.2 WAR makes up practically 20% of the decide’s general WAR. Left-hander Cole Hamels (2002, Philadelphia Phillies) is subsequent on the listing with 4 All-Star nominations, and right-hander Charles Nagy (1988, Cleveland) follows with three. Reliever Brad Lidge (1998, Astros), outfielder Gary Matthews (1968, San Francisco Giants) and outfielder Jeromy Burnitz (1990, New York Mets) are the opposite three No. 17 picks who turned All-Stars.
50%
Over the previous 4 drafts, the Orioles have displayed a transparent choice for taking place gamers with their high picks. Elias & Co. have but to draft and signal a pitcher sooner than the fifth spherical. If historical past is the one measure, although, the Orioles taking a pitcher with the seventeenth decide can be a coin flip, as 29 of the 58 No. 17 alternatives have been pitchers. That determine is nineteen factors greater than the proportion for No. 1 picks, which the Orioles used final yr on shortstop Jackson Holliday.
While some mock drafts have projected the Orioles to take highschool shortstop Arjun Nimmala and TCU third baseman Brayden Taylor, others have prompt Baltimore may go after University of Florida right-hander Hurston Waldrep or highschool two-way participant Bryce Eldridge.
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Source: www.bostonherald.com