For the primary time for the reason that Orioles’ grueling rebuild started, the vibes coming into a season had been excessive.
That balloon — one which grew ever-larger with speak in regards to the finish of the rebuild and postseason aspirations — was considerably deflated Monday afternoon when the staff introduced that prized pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez wouldn’t make the opening day roster.
The six weeks of spring coaching main as much as the controversial resolution had been drama-free, however the selection to start out Rodriguez, a consensus top-10 prospect, in Triple-A ended that streak. It additionally reinvigorated the assumption from a portion of the fan base that, regardless of the offseason declarations in regards to the rebuild and playoffs, the Orioles are nonetheless extra targeted on the long-term future than they’re on successful this yr.
Making issues worse, two different main league groups — the New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals — had comparable conditions with their prime prospects, and so they each selected a path completely different from the Orioles’.
The Yankees are having shortstop Anthony Volpe, ranked the 14th-best prospect by Baseball America general, open the yr within the main leagues. The Cardinals are citing outfielder Jordan Walker, ranked two spots forward of Rodriguez at No. 4. Volpe, 21, has fewer than 100 at-bats at Triple-A, whereas Walker, 20, hasn’t performed above Double-A.
Why didn’t the Orioles make the identical resolution with Rodriguez because the Yankees did with Volpe and the Cardinals with Walker?
Well, for starters, Volpe and Walker carried out nicely this spring; Rodriguez didn’t. That’s an necessary caveat to recollect, though the pattern sizes throughout spring coaching are famously unreliable. Volpe impressed with a 1.064 OPS, however that got here in simply 60 plate appearances. Walker’s .816 OPS was in 65 plate appearances.
Rodriguez, in the meantime, posted a 7.04 ERA with 12 earned runs allowed in 15 1/3 spring innings, failing to file greater than 12 outs in any of his previous couple of begins. He struggled the second time by means of the order, had spurts with poor command and had one blowup inning in every of his last three begins.
For Mike Elias, the choice to ship Rodriguez down was extra about the best way Rodriguez seemed — not like his typical self, the membership’s government vp and common supervisor famous — than what his statistics had been. That’s why Tyler Wells received the nod over Rodriguez for the fifth rotation spot, becoming a member of Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin and Kyle Bradish.
“We have a lot of stuff we look at, we have a lot of data, we have a lot of information,” Elias stated. “Command and establishing pitches and getting through innings. The subjective part of it is big, too. I think with all of those things we prefer the five other starters to start the season.”
Still, although, Rodriguez’s spring wasn’t all dangerous. Sure, he had three horrible innings. Those can’t be ignored.
But he additionally pitched 10 excellent frames. In every of his begins, earlier than he sank into quicksand within the third or fourth inning, he was dominant the primary time by means of the order. His 19 strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings had been greater than some other Orioles beginning pitcher had this spring.
After his penultimate spring begin, during which Rodriguez gave up a two-run residence run within the third and allowed three extra runs within the fourth, catcher James McCann gushed in regards to the 23-year-old’s “elite” stuff. Rodriguez has a mid-90s fastball, a drop-off-the-table changeup and a pointy breaking ball.
“It’s above my pay grade to tell you whether or not he’s ready to be in a rotation or not,” McCann stated, “but stuff-wise, no doubt he’s ready.”
Comparing Rodriguez’s spring coaching efficiency with Volpe’s and Walker’s is worth it, however taking a look at their historical past within the minors is likely to be extra so. Volpe hit simply .236 with 30 strikeouts in 22 Triple-A video games final season, whereas Walker had by no means even proved himself at that stage. Rodriguez, in the meantime, has already proven he can dominate Triple-A hitters. In 69 2/3 innings with Norfolk in 2022, Rodriguez posted a 2.20 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and a staggering 4.62 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Rodriguez had proved extra in his minor league profession than Volpe or Walker had, however the Orioles pitcher nonetheless entered camp with a excessive bar to cross to make the opening day roster, regardless of repeated offseason feedback from Elias that he was “pulling for” the right-hander to interrupt camp within the rotation.
Elias stated this spring was “not representative” of who the 6-foot-5 flamethrower is as a pitcher. But as a substitute of throwing out the small pattern and trusting in Rodriguez’s large league-ready stuff — maybe already one of the best on the staff — the Orioles’ brass as a substitute selected to ship him again to a stage he’s already mastered.
That’s what leads some to wonder if Rodriguez — and, to a a lot lesser extent, No. 2 pitching prospect DL Hall — are literally falling sufferer to service-time manipulation by the Orioles.
When requested whether or not service time could be a think about his decision-making with Rodriguez and Hall, Elias instantly stated “no,” including that he will get “frustrated with that topic” — one that’s usually cited by disgruntled followers throughout the game when groups select to maintain prospects within the minors.
Whether that’s the reality or not, Elias has to reply that manner, or in any other case face a grievance from the MLB Players Association.
But, how can it not play an element when the advantages to the membership — one other yr of staff management of a probably extremely invaluable participant — are so excessive?
Elias believes his observe file relating to calling up prime prospects — Adley Rutschman in May and Gunnar Henderson in late August — proves that the Orioles aren’t participating in service-time manipulation.
“Adley got hurt last year; that was unfortunate. As soon as he was healthy, we brought him up,” Elias stated, referencing the tricep harm Rutschman sustained in spring coaching that delayed his begin to the season.
“Gunnar Henderson, we brought him up. He’s obviously making the team,” Elias added, with out noting, in fact, that Henderson was saved within the minors lengthy sufficient in 2022 to keep up his rookie standing in 2023, giving the Orioles the prospect to earn a first-round draft choose if the infielder wins the American League Rookie of the Year Award.
“When guys are ready and the job is theirs and there’s not better options, we bring them up to the major league team. We’re going to continue to do that.”
None of that modifications the state of affairs, although, that it’s potential the Orioles acquire an additional yr of staff management over Rodriguez — a calculus the Yankees and Cardinals, the 2 franchises with essentially the most World Series titles in MLB, selected to disregard with their star prospects.
If Rodriguez debuts on or earlier than April 13 and stays within the majors for the rest of the yr, he would hit free company after the 2028 season. But if the Orioles wait till after April 13 to name him up, Rodriguez wouldn’t grow to be a free agent till after the 2029 marketing campaign — until he finishes first or second in AL Rookie of the Year voting.
Elias stated he expects Rodriguez shall be pitching at Camden Yards “ASAP.”
“I know what he’s capable of. I think he’s going to show it again very quickly,” Elias stated. “As soon as he does, we’re going to be all over it.”
It’s simply seemingly, deliberately or not, that when Elias shall be “all over it” will come after April 13.
Opening day
Orioles at Red Sox
Thursday, 2:10 p.m.
TV: MASN2
Radio: 97.9 FM, 101.5 FM, 1090 AM
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Source: www.bostonherald.com