Entering the season, the Orioles not making the playoffs wouldn’t have been a shock. In truth, the overwhelming consensus was they wouldn’t.
Now, if their 2023 marketing campaign have been to finish with the 162nd sport, it will be due to a late-season collapse and be thought of a disappointment. That consequence doesn’t appear possible, although, because the Orioles are scorching sizzling, winners of seven straight and house owners of the third-best report within the main leagues.
At this level, lacking the postseason can be a larger shock for just a few different groups in Major League Baseball. According to FanGraphs, the Orioles’ 81.3% probability to make the playoffs is the fourth-best within the majors — much better than their 10.4% probability on opening day. The National League-leading Atlanta Braves, American League-leading Tampa Bay Rays and NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers are the one golf equipment with higher playoff odds than the Orioles.
“This was the time that if we go on a streak, it can do a lot for the team’s confidence and put you in such a really good spot for the playoffs,” beginning pitcher Kyle Gibson mentioned after Saturday’s comeback win over the Marlins. “It really becomes yours to lose. I think that’s what we’re doing right now. We’re playing really good baseball at the right time.”
The very good begin — 21 video games above .500 earlier than August for the primary time since 1997 — has given Baltimore (56-35) respiratory room. That cushion means the Orioles don’t must make any second-half enhancements to make the playoffs. In truth, they’ll play .500 ball (or perhaps a bit worse) the remainder of the best way and nonetheless get there.
However, in the event that they need to do extra than simply make the playoffs — win a division title, a playoff collection or perhaps a pennant — enchancment is required over the season’s last two and a half months. Upgrades can are available in many kinds, from extra prospect promotions to the return of injured gamers to acquisitions on the commerce deadline. No matter the avenue, any enhancement may put Baltimore one step nearer to reaching targets previous merely making the playoffs.
The most evident space of want is within the bullpen. The again finish is solidified with nearer Félix Bautista and setup man Yennier Cano, however one other dependable arm (or two) may take the reduction corps to the subsequent stage.
It’s potential these reinforcements are in home, because the Orioles have six pitchers on the injured checklist, together with 5 relievers. Right-hander Mychal Givens (shoulder irritation) was one of many membership’s greatest offseason purchases, however he’s solely pitched 4 ineffective innings this yr. Left-hander Cionel Pérez (forearm soreness) and right-hander Dillon Tate (elbow flexor pressure) have been two of Baltimore’s greatest relievers in 2022, however the former has been largely ineffective in 2023 whereas the latter hasn’t pitched within the majors and has struggled mightily throughout two totally different minor league rehabilitation stints. Starter John Means (Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgical procedure) can also be progressing by means of his restoration, however the earliest he may return is in late August, and whether or not that will be in a beginning or reduction position is unknown.
Relying on Pérez to return to kind, on Givens and Tate to get wholesome or on Means to do each is likely to be a fraught path, and buying a reliever received’t be as costly as it will to purchase a beginning pitcher. Manager Brandon Hyde mentioned after Saturday’s win, the membership’s, that right-hander Mike Baumann has helped stabilize the center reduction, which has been shaky at occasions this yr.
“We’re looking for guys to get outs in those middle innings right now,” Hyde mentioned. “That’s something we did really well last year, something we can improve on this second half is kind of those middle innings once a starter leaves.”
The beginning rotation and lineup are in related spots. They’ve each been nice for spurts and unhealthy for brief stretches, however general adequate. The commerce deadline may provide choices, maybe for a top-line beginning pitcher, however the probably bolstering would come as a return to kind for present gamers or prospect promotions. Starters Gibson and Dean Kremer have been stable sufficient to win 19 video games mixed, however they each have ERAs north of 4.50. Ryan Mountcastle and Jorge Mateo, two of the Orioles’ greatest hitters early within the season, have been slumping, with the previous lately coming back from the injured checklist. Stellar second halves from these 4 gamers would give the rotation and the lineup a lift.
With the promotions of Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser, the Orioles don’t have a lot area or choices for prospect call-ups, with outfielder-first baseman Heston Kjerstad and right-hander Grayson Rodriguez because the probably candidates. Kjerstad may add one other left-handed bat to an already lefty-heavy lineup, whereas Rodriguez’s latest dominance at Triple-A presents an intriguing midseason addition after he struggled in his first huge league stint.
While Hyde mentioned he believes his membership can enhance on “a little bit of everything,” he mentioned constant pitching — each within the rotation and the bullpen — is what makes the Orioles go. With an offense that’s displayed each big-inning and comeback potential, having a pitching workers hold the sport shut is important.
“When we pitch well, we normally win, or we give ourselves a chance to win,” Hyde mentioned. “I believe that pitching on a nightly foundation, pitching and protection, in August and September actually comes into play. The good groups have extra depth, it’s post-trade deadline, the playoff groups, some groups, have loaded up fairly a bit. If you may pitch and play protection, you’re going to remain in video games and also you’re going to win video games you’re imagined to win. That’s going to be key for us.
“A lot of it is going to come down to our pitching.”
Hyde usually recollects his time on the Chicago Cubs’ teaching workers, together with the 2016 World Series championship season. That yr, the Cubs have been 53-35 on the All-Star break, however they obtained even higher because the season progressed — thanks, partly, to commerce deadline additions — and went 50-23 within the second half en path to a championship. However, the chance the 2023 Orioles have the second-half or postseason success the 2016 Cubs did is low, and no workforce ought to have expectations that top.
Throughout the season, it’s essential to not lose sight of what the expectations have been for the Orioles going into the yr, when sportsbooks and projection methods alike had them profitable fewer than 80 video games, in an effort to recognize how far the membership has are available in such a brief time period. However, that doesn’t imply the expectations can’t or shouldn’t change because the Orioles proceed to show themselves as a workforce able to greater than only a wild-card berth.
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Source: www.bostonherald.com