We’ve hit roughly the midway level of the offseason, and with Winter Weekend and certain a couple of extra strikes nonetheless to come back earlier than spring coaching, now could be pretty much as good a time as any to empty out the mailbag and reply your questions.
Today we’ll cowl the Red Sox payroll, potential commerce situations and the way a few newcomers may issue into the massive league equation.
When will the Red Sox begin spending once more like they used to? Or are these days over? — Ben I.
This is a query I hear from Red Sox followers loads, and it’s particularly price addressing given the current experiences that possession set a price range of $225 million final 12 months and has been squirrelly about payroll this winter. Basically, what precisely would “spending again like they used to” really seem like, and what would represent an appropriate payroll for this membership?
Traditionally, the Red Sox have ranked within the prime 5 for payroll all through John Henry’s possession, and based on year-by-year Associated Press knowledge, the Red Sox ranked prime 5 in 19 of the previous 22 seasons. They ranked second to the Yankees in 5 out of six seasons between 2002-08, one of the profitable runs in group historical past, and boasted the No. 1 payroll in 2018-19.
But these days that’s begun to alter. Since 2019, the Red Sox have been surpassed by quite a few different groups, with the membership dropping to sixth in 2022 and to thirteenth in 2023, by far the worst mark relative to the league in current franchise historical past. According to Red Sox Payroll on Twitter, the membership completed with a payroll of roughly $225 million this previous 12 months — assembly possession’s reported mandate — and whereas that isn’t far off from the membership’s greatest spending seasons, it nonetheless falls far in need of the investments made by different organizations lately, notably the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers.
So if the Red Sox are going to spend like they used to, they should choose up the tempo.
In order to get again into the highest 5, the Red Sox will in all probability have to hold a payroll of no less than $250 million. Even if that doesn’t strategy the ludicrous spending we’ve seen from Steve Cohen and the Mets, it will no less than put the membership again on par with the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies.
So, that’s it, proper? Well, not fairly. The different issue to think about is timing, and whereas going over the luxurious tax threshold hasn’t deterred the opposite huge golf equipment, there are legitimate baseball the reason why the Red Sox may need to keep beneath for another 12 months earlier than pushing their chips to the middle of the desk.
Besides the luxurious tax funds themselves, golf equipment that go over the luxurious tax undergo draft choose penalties, most notably when it comes to the compensatory picks they get when a high-profile free agent leaves. If a membership is beneath the tax threshold, they’ll get a choose between the second and third rounds, whereas in the event that they’re over it’ll drop to between the fourth and fifth.
The penalties get stiffer for every year a membership is over the edge, and if the distinction of some rounds doesn’t appear important, keep in mind that the Red Sox acquired prime outfield prospect Roman Anthony with an early compensatory choose in 2022. Had they been over the tax he’d probably be taking part in for a special group.
Given that this group is coming off two straight final place finishes and might be nonetheless greater than a 12 months away from championship rivalry, it wouldn’t be outrageous for Red Sox possession to need to hold beneath the tax threshold no less than another season. If that’s their objective, then they need to strategy the $237 million tax threshold — perhaps go away a small buffer for midseason acquisitions — and prepared themselves for a giant push beginning in 2025.
But if this season’s payroll comes out to $225 million once more — or worse, even decrease — then pink flags ought to go up all throughout New England and the group may have some explaining to do.
What implications does doubtlessly shifting on from Kenley Jansen have on the bullpen? Who would exchange him? — Justin Z.
So this query comes amid experiences that the Red Sox may be trying to slash payroll earlier than concentrating on among the remaining free brokers extra aggressively, and Kenley Jansen is somebody who has been floated as a doable commerce chip to assist accomplish that.
Personally, I believe that’d be a foul thought and can be fully self-defeating, however let’s say they do deal Jansen and unload his $16 million remaining wage. What then?
The Red Sox have a few inner choices who may slot into the nearer function. The prime candidate would seemingly be Chris Martin, who simply put collectively among the best seasons by a reliever in group historical past after posting a 1.05 ERA over 55 appearances. He often held down the fort within the ninth inning when Jansen wasn’t obtainable, however he additionally has solely 12 profession saves, so it may be higher to not mess with factor and go away him to dominate the eighth.
If not Martin, the Red Sox may additionally flip the nearer job over to Tanner Houck or Garrett Whitlock, each of whom have held the function up to now. Houck earned eight saves throughout the summer season of 2022, together with six in a two-week span in June, earlier than accidents derailed his season. Whitlock unofficially turned the man late in 2021, although he nonetheless usually threw two innings at a time fairly than observe the normal save-situation blueprint.
The Red Sox may additionally add from outdoors the group, maybe signing free agent nearer Jordan Hicks, however hopefully this complete dialog proves moot. Jansen is likely one of the greatest closers in baseball historical past and the Red Sox can be higher off with him locking issues down on the finish of video games fairly than attempting to outsmart themselves to save lots of a couple of dollars.
Who within the minors is completely untouchable in commerce talks? — Paul Z.
Nobody.
Seriously, at this level within the Red Sox aggressive cycle, the membership shouldn’t hesitate to do no matter it takes to enhance the massive league roster. And whereas I’m not advocating that Craig Breslow intestine the farm system, the group has amassed sufficient younger expertise that the Red Sox shouldn’t draw back from a daring transfer if the suitable man is on the desk.
Look on the infield. Right now the Red Sox have Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Vaughn Grissom and Triston Casas below group management for the subsequent 4 years and past. Perhaps Marcelo Mayer may push his method into that group as effectively, however even when he does that also leaves standouts like Nick Yorke, Chase Meidroth, Blaze Jordan and Mikey Romero with their paths doubtlessly blocked.
The similar is true for the outfield. Masataka Yoshida will in all probability be round for 4 extra years and the membership may nonetheless add one other huge bat, which might doubtlessly go away just one spot for Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony and Miguel Bleis.
Even if all of these gamers blossom into stars — they gained’t — there simply isn’t going to be sufficient room for everybody.
If there’s anybody who’s in all probability the least more likely to go, it’s in all probability Brayan Bello and Kyle Teel. Bello as a result of he represents precisely the kind of younger pitcher the group is attempting so as to add extra of, and Teel as a result of he’s a one-of-one inside the Red Sox system who may doubtlessly be catching within the majors by the tip of this season.
But as for the others, why not choose two, three or 4 and maximize their worth now? That method you’ll be able to strengthen the membership whereas nonetheless leaving sufficient expertise to construct with later.
Where does Tyler O’Neill match into the Red Sox plans this season? — Ed H.
It’s troublesome to say with out understanding how the outfield goes to in the end shake out, however assuming nothing adjustments I believe it’s protected to say we’ll see O’Neill taking part in loads in left discipline.
As of this writing Boston’s greatest lineup would probably have Yoshida primarily at designated hitter, O’Neill in left discipline, Jarren Duran in heart and Wilyer Abreu in proper. If the Red Sox have been to signal Teoscar Hernandez then he may bump Abreu from proper discipline, however in both case O’Neill would nonetheless see common time.
Two of O’Neill’s most precious qualities are his protection — he gained each of his Gold Gloves whereas solely taking part in left discipline for St. Louis — and his bat towards lefties. He has a profession .816 OPS towards lefties in comparison with .765 towards righties, so it’s a protected wager that each time the Red Sox face a lefty we’ll in all probability see a whole lot of lineups that embrace each him and Rob Refsnyder. And if there’s ever a righty who is especially weak towards lefties, perhaps that’s when O’Neill will sit and the Red Sox will load up on lefties with Yoshida, Duran and Abreu within the outfield.
Again, loads may change right here, however I’d wager O’Neill will play nearly day by day.
Bryan Mata both makes the 26-man roster or he’s gone. What do you foresee? — Josh B.
I believe Mata might be going to get traded. It’s actually exhausting to see how he’ll crack the opening day bullpen given all the opposite arms vying for spots, and with Justin Slaten additionally needing to make the roster, the Red Sox will in all probability have to prioritize the fellows they’ll stash in Triple-A.
That’s why they reduce Mauricio Llovera free, however I additionally assume Mata has sufficient worth that he might be included as half of a bigger deal.
Mata has the type of stuff you’ll be able to’t educate, and a man who can throw 100 mph gasoline out of the bullpen is one thing that can be of curiosity to a whole lot of golf equipment. The bother is his command has been horrible and his in depth run of accidents has hampered his growth to the purpose the place he’s now out of choices and primarily has to make the group or be designated for project.
If Breslow ultimately swings a deal for a beginning pitcher or one other outfielder, I wouldn’t be in any respect shocked if Mata have been included because the second or third prospect to sweeten the pot. If not, I suppose he’ll go into spring coaching and compete for a spot like everybody else. Maybe the membership’s new pitching infrastructure may assist unlock his potential and switch him right into a late-game weapon, however personally I’ve my doubts and wouldn’t get my hopes up about seeing him pitch for the Red Sox, this 12 months or perhaps ever.
Source: www.bostonherald.com