On Nov. 26, 2021, the Ravens have been 7-3, main the AFC North and two days from what can be the final win of their season, blissfully unaware of the misfortune about to befall them. A yr later, the workforce has its guard up.
“Anybody can get complacent when you’re having a lot of success,” quarterback Lamar Jackson, who missed the ultimate month of final season with an ankle damage, mentioned Friday. “So we just have to keep everyone levelheaded around here, including myself.”
As the Ravens (7-3) look to spherical into form for a possible playoff run, Sunday’s highway recreation towards the gifted however inconsistent Jaguars is perhaps their hardest take a look at for some time. A fifth straight win received’t come simply; Jacksonville is the NFL’s solely workforce with a constructive level differential (plus-11) however a dropping document (3-7). Here’s what to look at within the groups’ Week 12 matchup.
Offense
1. Jackson has by no means performed in Jacksonville as a Raven, however he capped his Louisville profession in December 2017 on the Jaguars’ EverBank Field, now referred to as TIAA Bank Field.
It wasn’t the joyful ending he needed. In a TaxSlayer Bowl loss to Mississippi State, Jackson threw 4 interceptions, virtually matching his regular-season complete (six). Jackson additionally broke his personal single-season college information for dashing yards and yards from scrimmage and have become the third participant in Football Bowl Subdivision historical past with a minimum of 50 landing passes and 50 landing runs, becoming a member of Florida’s Tim Tebow and Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick.
Six days later, Jackson introduced he would enter the NFL draft.
2. The Jaguars rank fifth within the NFL in stress fee (36.0%) however thirtieth in sack fee (4.3%), in response to TruMedia. Outside linebacker Josh Allen, the No. 7 total decide in 2019, has a team-high 37 pressures (tied for 18th within the NFL) however simply three sacks. Outside linebacker Travon Walker, the No. 1 total decide this yr, has 24 pressures but additionally simply three sacks. Defensive finish Dawuane Smoot leads the workforce with six sacks on his 21 pressures.
“The defensive front seven is just outstanding; they’re very physical,” coach John Harbaugh mentioned Wednesday. “It’s going to be a very, very physical football game, much like the last game. We’re going to have to play our best to go down there and win.”
That begins with Jackson. He’s accomplished 44.6% of his passes when pressured this season, in response to TruMedia, twenty seventh amongst 34 qualifying quarterbacks. He by no means accomplished lower than 51.5% of his passes when pressured in his first three years as a full-time starter. Jackson’s additionally averaging minus-0.45 anticipated factors added per pressured drop-back, which ranks twenty fifth within the NFL and can be one other profession low. (EPA accounts for situational components reminiscent of down, distance and discipline place.)
3. Over the season’s first 9 weeks, Ravens receivers dropped 11 of Jackson’s 244 passes, a 4.5% drop fee that ranked sixteenth greatest within the NFL, in response to TruMedia.
In Sunday’s win towards Carolina, they dropped 5 of Jackson’s 33 throws, a 15.2% drop fee that was the best amongst all groups in Week 11. Jackson nonetheless completed with a season-high completion share (.727) after going 24-for-33 in frigid climate. Sunday’s recreation is anticipated to be within the excessive 70s, with an opportunity of thunderstorms.
Defense
4. Ravens coaches have in contrast Jacksonville operating again Travis Etienne to New Orleans Saints star Alvin Kamara, however quicker — and never essentially as a result of he’s a harmful receiver (9.1 yards per catch, second highest amongst operating backs).
“The way he hits the hole, his acceleration, he has a different gear, right away, that is unique,” defensive lineman Calais Campbell mentioned Wednesday. “He’s a tough tackle, has great contact balance. … He really has that kind of balance where he’s just a tough tackle, but then that acceleration is so unique. He has pretty good vision. He’s an all-around back. He’s special.”
Etienne has 725 dashing yards (twelfth within the NFL) and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry (eighth) this season, however he inflicts most of his harm on perimeter runs. The No. 25 total decide within the 2021 draft has 520 yards (5.7 per carry) on off-tackle and out of doors runs, in response to Sports Info Solutions. Zone runs have been particularly productive.
Etienne could possibly be operating right into a brick wall on Sunday, although. Since including exterior linebacker Tyus Bowser and inside linebacker Roquan Smith to their protection in Week 9, the Ravens have allowed simply 35 yards on 18 off-tackle and out of doors carries.
5. With Ravens rookie security and high nickel again Kyle Hamilton (knee) questionable for Sunday’s recreation after lacking the week of observe, cornerback Marlon Humphrey’s positional versatility might tackle outsize significance.
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s high goal is broad receiver Christian Kirk, who traces up within the slot on over two-thirds of his snaps. Of Kirk’s 679 receiving yards this season, 480 have come when lined up inside, third most within the NFL, in response to TruMedia. “He can run all the routes, honestly,” security Chuck Clark mentioned Wednesday. “They give him the ball in all types of ways, whether it’s vertical or intermediate or low.”
While the Ravens hardly ever have their cornerbacks shadow opposing receivers, Humphrey’s typically been deployed as a slot cornerback, the place he’s an asset as a blitzer and run defender. He’s additionally sturdy in protection there, having allowed simply 5 catches for 53 yards and a landing on 11 targets this season, in response to SIS. Two of his three interceptions have come when aligned inside.
6. Red-zone effectivity could possibly be decisive. On performs exterior of the opponent’s 20-yard line, the Jaguars’ offense ranks seventh within the NFL in EPA per play, in response to TruMedia. Finishing drives has been their drawback, although, as Jacksonville ranks twenty fourth in EPA per red-zone play. Lawrence has handed for 12 red-zone touchdowns, however he’s 25-for-50 total, with three interceptions. Only the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen has extra picks in these shut quarters (4).
The Ravens’ red-zone protection, in the meantime, has been unremarkable this season. Opponents have scored a landing on 55.9% of their drives contained in the Ravens’ 20, the 18th-best mark within the NFL.
Extra factors
7. Tight finish Mark Andrews wants 100 receiving yards to interrupt a tie with broad receiver Mark Clayton for essentially the most 100-yard receiving video games (9) in Ravens historical past.
Campbell, in the meantime, wants two sacks to grow to be the 63rd participant in NFL historical past to achieve 100 in a profession. He had 31 1/2 sacks in his three years in Jacksonville.
Week 12
Ravens at Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m.
TV: Chs. 13, 9
Radio: 97.9 FM, 101.5 FM, 1090 AM
Line: Ravens by 4
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Source: www.bostonherald.com