Now do it once more.
Last weekend’s upset of the Bills gained’t be sufficient for the Patriots (2-5) to reverse course on their season, however beating Miami may begin a formidable U-turn. The Pats are slated as 9-point underdogs in South Florida, the place they’ve struggled traditionally. The Patriots are 2-8 of their final 10 visits, and haven’t overwhelmed the Dolphins on the highway within the post-Brady period.
Expect them to comply with the same formulation to what they executed towards Buffalo: fast passing, extra run-pass-options, defensive schemes to get on the spot stress and an eye fixed on the sector place battle.
Here’s how Sunday ought to go down in Miami:
When the Patriots run
Suddenly, the Pats are among the many steadiest speeding groups within the NFL.
They rank ninth in success fee over the past three weeks, indicating a capability to remain on-schedule and transfer the chains. Moving proper guard Mike Onwenu over to proper deal with factored into a few of their success, although one thing should be stated for general continuity.
The Patriots are now not juggling accidents alongside their O-line, which has cleared wider and wider holes for working backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. Left deal with Trent Brown can also be enjoying a few of the finest soccer of his profession. Despite that search for the Pats to pound the proper facet of Miami’s protection, the place the Dolphins are permitting a league-high 31.3% of carries in that course to go for first downs, per Sports Info. Solutions.
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The Patriots are additionally more likely to mud off their plan from the groups’ final assembly in Week 2, once they featured heavy personnel groupings on their first few drives. While they did not knock Miami off the ball that night time, after which fell into an early gap, the Dolphins are permitting 4.4 yards per carry towards two-tight finish personnel, ninth-worst within the NFL.
When the Patriots move
Despite all their expertise, Miami ranks among the many worst passing defenses within the NFL by most metrics. Good information, proper?
Not completely. According to the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DOVA, the Dolphins are a top-5 unit at defending the center of the sector, aka Mac Jones’ candy spot. Jones performed his finest sport of the season final week by attacking between the numbers and inside 20 yards downfield. He did not try a single deep move.
After going 0-of-5 on these throws versus Miami final month, anticipate the Patriots to focus on Stevenson and tight ends Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki and Pharaoh Brown within the brief to intermediate areas. Miami ranks as a bottom-5 move protection versus working backs and tight ends. The Dolphins additionally hinted at a doable return for All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey through the week, which may discourage outdoors throws.
And do not forget about rookie receiver Demario Douglas. He averaged greater than 14 yards per contact final weekend, the primary sport of his profession when he was allowed to play greater than half the group’s offensive snaps. Douglas is approaching robust.
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When the Dolphins run
Lost amid all of the hype for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is the very fact Miami fields one of the vital harmful speeding assaults in the whole league. That is, till final week.
Against Philadelphia, the Dolphins completed with 45 speeding yards and a yards per carry common beneath 4. The Eagles’ defensive position dominated a banged-up Miami offensive line, which can once more be with out its beginning left deal with and beginning left guard on Sunday. The Pats will want defensive tackles Christian Barmore and Davon Godchaux to dominate like they did towards Buffalo and management the center, the place Raheem Mostert ripped off a 43-yard landing within the fourth quarter of the final assembly.
The hazard, as at all times, is within the Dolphins’ lengthy velocity.
But the true battleground Sunday is perhaps on the sting, the place Miami repeatedly ran outdoors zone and toss performs to get their speedy backs in area in Week 2. Aside from Jahlani Tavai dropping one battle that allowed for an 8-yard landing within the second quarter, the Patriots largely held their floor. That purchased them time towards Miami, which referred to as 45% of its runs behind both deal with, and scored as soon as within the second half.
When the Dolphins move
This is all about timing.
In Week 2, Tagovailoa nullified the Pats’ move rush (a season-low 15.2% stress fee with Matt Judon) by unloading the ball in a sooner common time (2.08 seconds) than any quarterback posted that week. Miami nonetheless operates one of many league’s quickest passing video games designed to get Hill and Waddle into area. Even with a restricted receiving corps (Hill has a hip damage), the Dolphins’ offense is designed to create yards after the catch for whoever is enjoying receiver.
To forestall this, will the Patriots blitz? They despatched additional rushers at Josh Allen on nearly 40% of his dropbacks final Sunday, regardless of the very fact he entered with a passer score towards the blitz north of 110. Tagovailoa’s numbers are additionally robust versus the blitz, and in Week 2 he went 4-of-6 for 43 yards towards Patriots blitzes, together with three first-down conversions.
One approach or one other, the Patriots should both attain Tagovailoa inside two-plus seconds or pressure him to carry the ball for longer than he needs.
Game decide
Miami 20, Patriots 16
Source: www.bostonherald.com