The connective tissue of any elite NFL offense is all the time the identical: belief.
Trust breeds timing, confidence. Trust permits a quarterback to tear a cross earlier than the receiver snaps out of his break believing he’ll flip in time to catch the ball. It means calling a play believing the quarterback will learn his keys appropriately, grasp in in opposition to strain and ship on third down.
Midway via the season, there’s little proof of belief inside the Patriots offense. Unsure of his safety, Mac Jones is prematurely bailing from pockets and slicing off full-field reads. The play-calling displays an absence of perception in him and stated pass-blocking. The vast receivers have gone AWOL exterior of Jakobi Meyers, who fumbled Sunday.
Nothing is sweet sufficient, as a result of from the coaches to the quarterback, receivers and offensive line, just about nobody has confirmed themselves reliable. The solely participant whose efficiency could be trusted week after week is Rhamondre Stevenson, a tackle-breaking machine who ranks second on the crew in catches and has single-handedly carried the Pats’ run recreation since early October. Over the previous 4 weeks, greater than half of the Pats’ hand-offs have been met at or behind the road of scrimmage, per Sports Info. Solutions.
Yet Stevenson persists, powers via and averages greater than three yards per carry after contact. And he inhales most each goal, too. So naturally, in crucial areas reminiscent of third down and the tight pink zone, Jones stared down his star working again Sunday, trusting he would come open.
And on one snap Stevenson did, catching a 3-yard landing within the second quarter, the Pats’ solely landing of the sport. But on three different targets, Colts linebacker Bobby Okereke had Stevenson blanketed, and Jones waited and fired at him anyway for 3 incompletions. Jones did so at the price of his different receivers, together with some who sprung free, as a result of both he didn’t belief them to get open or believed he had inadequate safety.
#Patriots movie: Mac Jones had a couple of unhealthy reps staring down Rhamondre Stevenson vs. single protection. Completely ignores the bunch in a 3×1 formation right here.
The Pats favored Stevenson vs. Colts LB Bobby Okereke, who allowed his TD, however did not give up a completion on 3 different targets. pic.twitter.com/41crQesGgT
— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) November 7, 2022
But Jones was fallacious. And on different snaps, he settled for checkdowns after lacking open receivers downfield off play-action, potential explosive performs down the drain. Of course, these have been just some of the snaps when Jones was allowed to cross.
Against the Colts, who owned the NFL’s sixth-best run protection by DVOA, Matt Patricia known as runs on eight of the Patriots’ preliminary 11 first-down performs. Two have been profitable and three went backwards. Meanwhile, Jones began 5-of-5 for 36 yards on first down, together with a well-timed display cross that sparked a scoring drive.
Overall, the Pats rushed on two-thirds of their first-down performs and gained 1.8 yards per carry, a pathetic common that routinely put them behind the chains. That inefficiency led on to struggles on third down, the place the Colts held a baked-in benefit, Patricia opened with a downfield display on the Pats’ first drive and Jones ran right into a sack that killed the second collection. But set these points apart for a second.
Early downs are the most secure time and place for a quarterback to throw as a result of defenses play less complicated coverages in opposition to the specter of a possible run. Patricia eschewed far too lots of these alternatives to as a substitute run into stacked packing containers with an injured, subpar offensive line. Moving ahead, the Patriots can’t neglect any favorable circumstances for Jones to create explosive cross performs as a result of the offense shouldn’t be proficient or reliable sufficient to generate them exterior of construction.
“Every drive can’t seem like it’s so hard to get yards,” Jones stated post-game. “We’ve got to be able to skip some third downs and move the ball and get explosive plays.”
#Patriots movie: Patricia performed it secure with the passing recreation straight away, calling a downfield drag display on Third-and-12 on the Pats’ opening drive.
Kendrick Bourne is the one meant goal right here. Meyers blocks, Thornton runs a clear-out, Stevenson and Henry search for blocks. pic.twitter.com/32iXFVjI7c
— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) November 7, 2022
The excellent news is a few of these issues are fixable. Patricia has demonstrated some potential to scheme round severe roster deficiencies (see: 27-24 loss at Green Bay) and alter mid-game (see: 38-15 win at Cleveland). Whether Jones can return to his rookie type inside these circumstances stays to be seen. Surely, resting over the upcoming bye week will do him and his offensive line some good.
But the Patriots offense has regressed in a means that not even the return of middle David Andrews or the emergence of a succesful proper sort out can treatment. Because when constructing belief, there’s by no means a fast repair.
Here’s what else the movie revealed about Sunday’s win:
Mac Jones
Accurate throw share: 71.4%
Under strain: 4-of-8 for 39 yards, 4 sacks
Against the blitz: 2-of-3 for six yards
Behind the road: 7-of-8 for 35 yards
0-9 yards: 11-of-14 for 65 yards, TD
10-19 yards: 1-of-3 for 17 yards
20+ yards: 1-of-3 for 30 yards
Notes: Jones’ efficiency resembled that of a high-end backup, a quarterback who jumped at secure throws, was spoon-fed easy reads, missed a couple of of them and didn’t elevate the gamers round him. It stays troublesome to parse out precisely how a lot of the Patriots’ passing struggles belong to Jones, his safety and system, however there isn’t a absolving him of all blame. He rushed into strain, together with a minimum of a pair sacks, and accomplished two passes that traveled greater than 10 yards downfield.
More performances like this can doom the Pats in opposition to groups within the playoff hunt.
Studs
OLB Josh Uche
Was this the long-awaited breakout? Uche matched his 2021 season complete with three sacks and maintained good self-discipline when defending the run and containing Colts quarterback Sam Ehlinger. He is on the rise and confirmed why he will be the most naturally gifted cross rusher on the roster.
CB Jonathan Jones
With a blocked punt and pick-six, no Pats defender might prime Jones’ efficiency Sunday for the remainder of the season.
Duds
OL Cole Strange
The rookie left guard has been benched in two straight video games. On Sunday, he acquired blasted in cross safety, whistled for unlawful arms to the face and allowed one run stuff in simply 15 offensive snaps.
WR Kendrick Bourne
Bourne fumbled for the second time this season and dropped his first goal on a downfield display cross over the center. The Patriots want extra from him as their No. 2 or 3 receiver with DeVante Parker out.
Offense
Game plan
- Personnel: 82% of snaps in 11 personnel, 18% in 12 personnel.*
Personnel manufacturing: 3.5 yards/play in 11 personnel, 2.4 yards/play in 12 personnel. - First down play-calls: 64% run (1.8 yards per play), 36% cross (4.5 yards per
play) - Play-action price: 29.4%
Key areas
- Third downs: 6-17
- Red-zone effectivity: 1-2
- Pressure price allowed: 35.3%
Player stats
- Broken tackles: Rhamondre Stevenson 4, Jonnu Smith 3, J.J. Taylor
- Sacks allowed: Mac Jones 2, Yodny Cajuste, Team
- QB hits allowed: Isaiah Wynn, Cajuste
- Hurries allowed: Cajuste 2, Trent Brown, James Ferentz, Wynn, Team
- Run stuffs allowed: Team 3, James Ferentz 2, Cole Strange
- Penalties: Brown (holding), Wynn (holding), Strange (unlawful use of arms), LS Joe Cardona (false begin on discipline objective)
- Drops: Kendrick Bourne
Notes
- Every week after 20% of the Patriots’ offensive performs went backwards in opposition to the Jets, 38.5% of them resulted in no achieve or detrimental yardage Sunday. That is past untenable.
- Poor offensive line play and questionable play-calling have been central to those struggles. The Colts protection entered kickoff ranked third-worst within the league versus 12 personnel, but Patricia deployed two-tight finish packages on simply 13% of the offense’s snaps earlier than rubbish time.
- When the Patriots handed from 12 personnel, Jones was an ideal 3-for-3 for 14 yards. Hardly game-breaking numbers, however whenever you end with 203 yards complete, regular positive factors like that ought to suffice.
- Tight finish Hunter Henry additionally caught all 4 of his targets for 50 yards in one among his greatest video games of the season. Henry deserved to be featured extra, particularly contemplating the Pats’ two longest positive factors have been passes caught by tight ends.
- Lastly, after dialing up 12 run-pass choices (RPOs) with success in opposition to the Jets, Patricia curiously pulled again to 6 in opposition to Indy, regardless of comparable points with safety and early-down effectivity whereas going through a zone-heavy protection.
- As for the offensive line, Cole Strange bombed once more at left guard. Isaiah Wynn changed him after two collection and hardly impressed (with one QB hit and hurry allowed round a holding penalty), however nonetheless supplied a greater possibility than the struggling rookie.
- Elsewhere, lifetime reserve Yodny Cajuste was a merchandising machine for strain early on at proper sort out, and middle James Ferentz struggled when run-blocking.
- Overall on the bottom, the Patriots gained 65 of their 70 dashing yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus; an ideal encapsulation of the valuable few dashing lanes Rhamondre Stevenson and J.J. Taylor have been afforded on hand-offs.
- Right guard Mike Onwenu was the one O-lineman, but once more, to put up a clear sheet. Between him and Stevenson, it’s a two-man race for greatest Patriots offensive participant this season.
- Two of the Patriots’ three longest runs have been hand-offs Stevenson took behind a decent finish serving as a lead blocker. Henry helped clear area on a first-and-20 run that gained 16 yards, and Jonnu Smith performed fullback on a 10-yarder two drives later.
- The Pats principally tossed the two-back run ideas of their playbook after they determined in opposition to rostering a real fullback within the offseason, nevertheless it bears watching whether or not they’ll reincorporate a few of these performs to jump-start the run recreation after the bye.
- As for the passing recreation, it’s troubling the Patriots couldn’t carve up the Colts’ base Cover 3 protection — a system they’ve traditionally shredded — higher than they did. Indianapolis merely compelled them to maintain drives with small, constant positive factors, and so they couldn’t.
- Former Pats cornerback Stephon Gilmore dealt with rookie wideout Tyquan Thornton (one catch on 4 targets), although Thornton had a would-be landing working a deep over from the slot that Jones missed within the third quarter.
- Practice-squad wideout Lynn Bowden Jr. noticed 14 offensive snaps in his crew debut and first recreation motion since Jan. 2020. He changed Jakobi Meyers within the slot on two drives, seemingly to present him a breather. Meyers has battled a knee damage for the reason that summer season.
Defense
Game plan
- Personnel breakdown: 41% dime package deal, 29% three-cornerback nickel package deal, 27% three-safety nickel package deal, 3% base.**
- Blitz price: 21%
- Blitz efficacy: 4-of-7, 21 yards allowed, 2 sacks
Key areas
- Yards per carry allowed: 3.5
- Third downs: 0-14
- Red-zone effectivity: 0-2
- Pressure price: 40.4%
Player stats
- Interceptions: Jonathan Jones
- Pass deflections: Devin McCourty 2, Jalen Mills 2, Jack Jones, Myles Bryant, Anfernee Jennings
- Sacks: Matt Judon 3, Josh Uche 3, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Raekwon McMillan, Deatrich Wise 0.5, Jahlani Tavai 0.5
- QB hits: Judon, Tavai
- Hurries: Wise 3, Bentley, Kyle Dugger, Team
- Run stuffs: Team 2
- Missed tackles: Bentley, Wise, Jack Jones
- Penalties: DT Daniel Ekuale (roughing the passer, encroachment),
Notes
- The Patriots feasted on maybe the worst pass-blocking line within the NFL, notching 9 sacks with a number of minutes remaining. The protection had matchup benefits in all places, however particularly up entrance.
- Matt Judon earned his first two sacks looping inside the precise aspect of the Colts’ O-line, which performed prefer it had by no means seen a fundamental stunt earlier than. Bentley earned his the identical means, beginning on the precise edge, looping round a defensive sort out that attacked the sting and dashing up the center for a sack.
- The Pats known as these T-E (tackle-end) stunts all through the sport, which not solely broke Indy’s offensive line however flushed second-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger exterior the pocket.
- Ehlinger went 5-of-9 with an interception over the quick center, the place the Colts labored continuously to free receivers with choose routes. Without easy-access throws, he was compelled to accept checkdowns or misfire deep down the sidelines.
- Outside, veteran nook Jalen Mills didn’t permit a catch on 5 targets and locked down Indy’s No. 1 receiver, Michael Pittman, of their matchups. Pittman completed with simply three catches on twice as many targets.
- Mills was additionally one among a number of veteran defenders to play fewer than 70% of the crew’s snaps, together with Matt Judon, Jonathan Jones, Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips.
- Their low snap counts have been a operate of the crew’s ongoing rotations at most positions that afford backups like Anfernee Jennings, Jabrill Peppers, Jack Jones and Marcus Jones extra run and hold the very best gamers recent.
- Devin McCourty, Deatrich Wise and Ja’Whaun Bentley have been the one starters to play greater than 70% of the crew’s snaps. Wise’s half-sack gave him a brand new single-season profession excessive with 5.5 this yr.
- Bentley can also be on a tear these days, with 22 tackles, an interception, one sack and two QB hits round his traditional run-stuffing over the previous three video games.
- His backups, Raekwon McMillan, performed his greatest recreation of the season and earned a sack powering via left sort out Bernhard Raimann.
- The Patriots stay the surest tackling crew within the NFL, whiffing simply 3 times in opposition to the Colts.
Statistics for passing depth, damaged tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
*11 personnel = one working again, one tight finish; 12 personnel = one working again, two tight ends.
**Base protection = 4 defensive backs; nickel protection = 5 defensive backs; dime protection = six defensive backs.
Source: www.bostonherald.com