Welcome again to Zappe Hour.
Backup quarterback Bailey Zappe will make his first begin of the season Sunday towards the Chargers. Hopes are usually not excessive for Zappe, who went 9-of-14 for 54 yards and an interception final week in his fourth reduction look of the season. But change ought to be a optimistic for a languishing Patriots offense.
As for the Chargers, losers of three straight, quarterback Justin Herbert stays one of many NFL’s finest and harmful passers. Though he’s 0-2 in his profession towards Bill Belichick, who’s liable for two of the worst performances of Herbert’s profession. Could Belichick cook dinner up an upset Sunday?
Here’s what to look at for:
When the Patriots run
Last week, offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien known as six extra passes than runs, regardless of averaging a full yard extra on handoffs than dropbacks. Here’s hoping that modifications.
The Patriots boast one of many league’s most effective run video games, rating within the prime 10 by success charge and EPA because the begin of October. Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for a season-high 98 yards final week, plus a landing, as he dominated working again snaps. With Ezekiel Elliott now preventing by way of a thigh harm, Stevenson might once more see greater than 70% of the crew’s offensive snaps.
The Chargers additionally rank among the many league’s worst run defenses by most metrics. Expect the Pats to focus on linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. and defensive sort out Austin Johnson, two below-average run defenders for his or her place, on inside runs.
When the Patriots cross
Source: Bailey Zappe took majority of Patriots QB reps in first observe of Week 13
No Demario Douglas will harm the Patriots’ skill to determine a rhythm for Zappe. The rookie leads all receivers in targets, yards and yards per catch.
That leaves the Patriots turning to gamers like Stevenson and tight finish Hunter Henry, who’re subsequent up on the receptions leaderboard. Henry may feast towards his previous crew, contemplating Los Angeles ranks lifeless final at defending the center of the sphere by DVOA.
Stevenson, whether or not on the bottom or by way of the air, also needs to see loads of touches. The Chargers are third-worst at defending working backs by DVOA, and dumping the ball off to Stevenson ought to assist beat a menacing cross rush. All-Pro exterior linebacker Khalil Mack is third within the league in sacks with 13, whereas rookie edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu is coming together with 4.
“Defensively, they’ve got several guys up front even with (Joey) Bosa out, with (Khalil) Mack and Tuli (Tuipulotu), and guys like that who are really disruptive, can make game-changing plays with strip sacks,” Belichick stated this week. “They hit the quarterback a lot in passing situations, third and fourth down in particular. Two minute (drills) – when they need to rush, they can rush.”
When the Chargers run
Patriots defensive sort out Lawrence Guy stated this week that Chargers working again Austin Ekeler reminds him of James White. The numbers again him up.
Ekeler, a smaller again at 5-foot-10, is the Chargers’ second-leading receiver and prime rusher. He’s squeezed out 428 dashing yards and 4 touchdowns this season, regardless of among the worst run-blocking throughout the NFL. He’s not a very bodily again, however Los Angeles will ask him to make powerful yards in short-yardage.
Fourth-year rusher Joshua Kelley affords an even bigger, change-of-pace again at 5-foot-11 and 211 kilos, although his presence usually signifies a cross. The Chargers have dropped again on greater than 66% of his offensive snaps, per Pro Football Focus.
The Patriots, in the meantime, boast one of many stronger defensive fronts, as evidenced by holding Saquon Barkley to three.8 yards per carry final week. Whether it is Ekeler or Kelley, they need to have a bonus.
When the Chargers cross
Callahan: The Patriots’ season is now hurry up and wait
So far this season for Los Angeles, it is all began with Keenan Allen.
Allen has 85 extra targets than every other Chargers offensive participant, greater than 1,100 yards and a team-high seven touchdowns. He leads the NFL in catches throughout a profession 12 months, although Allen did not observe Wednesday or Thursday.
As for Herbert, he does all the pieces properly: making fast, good choices, dotting passes all around the area, extending performs and rifling the ball into tight home windows. Yet, he is accomplished simply 50% of his passes in two video games towards the Patriots for 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. His 52.8 passer ranking in these video games is the bottom of his profession towards any opponent.
Look for the Pats to play heavy zone, as they take care of cornerback points, together with a struggling ex-Charger in J.C. Jackson. And even when that protection blankets Hebert’s weapons, bother might nonetheless await them within the passing sport. Allow Belichick to clarify.
“Herbert creates some plays on his own when there really isn’t anything there,” Belichick stated. “He pulls one thing out with a scramble or an prolonged play, or throwing into tight protection that there aren’t too many guys who can get in there, however he can.
Game choose
Chargers 17, Patriots 9
Source: www.bostonherald.com