The stretch run is right here, and the Orioles enter it because the American League’s finest staff.
Baltimore (83-50) is on tempo to win 101 video games — doubtlessly reaching the century mark for the primary time since 1980 — after going 18-9 in August. But the Tampa Bay Rays stored tempo with a 17-8 mark to stay simply 1 1/2 video games again of the Orioles atop the AL East.
With 29 video games remaining, FanGraphs provides the Orioles a 99.9% likelihood to make the playoffs, however enjoying nicely sufficient down the stretch to win the division and enter the postseason on a excessive word is vital.
With about one month remaining within the common season, Baltimore Sun Orioles reporters Nathan Ruiz and Jacob Calvin Meyer and editor Tim Schwartz reply 5 questions going through the staff.
Will the Orioles win the AL East?
Ruiz: Yes. The lack of All-Star nearer Félix Bautista to an ulnar collateral ligament harm clearly hurts their probabilities, but it surely’s not as if the Rays are at full energy, both. Baltimore’s finest trait all year long has been its depth, and it has a fair proportion of obtainable reinforcements on each the pitching (John Means, Tyler Wells, Bryan Baker and Mike Baumann) and hitting (Aaron Hicks, Joey Ortiz and Heston Kjerstad) sides. The Orioles even have a lighter remaining schedule than Tampa Bay, although the division might come right down to their 4 head-to-head video games later this month at Camden Yards.
Meyer: No. The Orioles have been extra constant than the Rays, however that doesn’t imply they’ve been higher. Tampa Bay has scored 55 extra runs and allowed 35 fewer with only one extra recreation performed. The Rays have a Pythagorean report based mostly off their run differential of 85-49 in contrast with the Orioles’ anticipated mark of 76-57. Yeah, yeah, that’s why the play the video games — and apologies for any flashbacks the phrase “Pythagorean” simply gave you to math class — however run differential is oftentimes extra predictive than a staff’s precise report. Neither staff is flawless, however the Orioles have proven cracks. Now with out Bautista, each member of the bullpen not named Yennier Cano or Danny Coulombe has been inconsistent or is a newcomer and not using a confirmed monitor report. The beginning rotation additionally has query marks. Cole Irvin has been strong not too long ago, however he has one high quality begin out of 11. Jack Flaherty has a 6.41 ERA since becoming a member of the Orioles on the commerce deadline. Kyle Gibson is coming off his worst month of the season. And the three starters who’ve been only — Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer — all have workload considerations. Either approach, it is a toss-up that can come right down to the final week of the season.
Schwartz: Yes. The Rays have been enjoying some actually good baseball as of late, however the Orioles have been a mannequin of consistency this season. Without Wander Franco, their star shortstop on the restricted record, and Shane McClanahan, their ace who not too long ago had Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgical procedure, Tampa appears extra prone to stoop simply sufficient for Baltimore to retain its lead within the division. But as Nathan stated above, it’s going to most likely come right down to the four-game sequence in mid-September.
When John Means returns, ought to he be part of the rotation?
Ruiz: Given the inconsistency the Orioles have gotten out of the veteran half of their six-man rotation, Means actually deserves an opportunity to begin. In August, Bradish, Rodriguez and Kremer recorded a 2.38 ERA and three.32 FIP, an ERA-like metric decided utilizing points solely in a pitcher’s management comparable to strikeouts, walks and residential runs. Gibson, Flaherty and Irvin, in the meantime, had a mixed 6.20 ERA and 4.83 FIP of their begins. It’s rather a lot to ask Means to return from Tommy John surgical procedure and be the 2019-21 model of himself, however he doesn’t even have to do this to be an improve.
Meyer: This is a troublesome query — so robust neither supervisor Brandon Hyde nor common supervisor Mike Elias has a solution but (or, fairly, a solution they’re keen to share). On one hand, why not? Give Means an opportunity and see if he’s absolutely again to himself. On the opposite hand, ought to a starter with a profession 3.81 ERA and 4.59 FIP coming off Tommy John and pitching in his first huge league motion since April 2022 really be anticipated to supply a lift? Perhaps it might be finest for the Orioles and Means’ future to ease him again in with a long-relief function within the bullpen.
Schwartz: It relies upon. If Gibson has one other tough outing, I’d put Means in his spot within the rotation and have Gibson able to piggyback him. But the Orioles have factor going proper now with their rotation, and Means is leaping proper right into a state of affairs through which each recreation issues. Perhaps Baltimore will choose to have him pitch in lengthy aid to get him able to rejoin the rotation later this month in case one other starter falters down the stretch.
Which reliever is almost certainly to step up right into a high-leverage function?
Ruiz: DL Hall. In Hall’s previous 11 short-relief outings for the Orioles over the previous two years, he’s allowed one earned run in 12 innings with three walks in opposition to 13 strikeouts. The velocity he was lacking earlier within the 12 months is again, and Hyde shortly inserted him into high-leverage conditions as soon as he was recalled as Bautista’s roster substitute. The Orioles nonetheless imagine Hall generally is a starter sooner or later, however he’s proven numerous upside on this function, too.
Meyer: My coronary heart says Shintaro Fujinami, however my head says anybody however. Fujinami actually has the expertise, however he’s been too inconsistent. I’ll go along with Wells. He isn’t the reliever Baltimore is ready to recall Friday as rosters develop to twenty-eight (that’s Joey Krehbiel), but it surely’s potential he’s known as up in September. Wells went from being Baltimore’s prime starter within the first half, to Double-A for what Hyde known as a “reset,” to now pitching late in video games in a short-relief function with Triple-A Norfolk. His excessive dwelling run fee is a priority, however he has expertise within the again finish of an enormous league bullpen from 2021 and is being primed for a high-leverage function now.
Schwartz: Hall. Have you seen his stuff not too long ago? The man is simply nasty, and that stuff from a left-hander performs late in video games. Assuming Hall continues to keep away from strolling batters, he ought to be organising Cano.
What under-the-radar participant could have a huge impact down the stretch?
Ruiz: It’s laborious to contemplate a former prime 100 prospect “under the radar,” however that largely described Jordan Westburg’s tenure within the Orioles’ system. Despite a robust all-around talent set, he’s usually been neglected relative to Baltimore’s different prime infield prospects, and within the majors, he’s discovered himself battling Adam Frazier and Ramón Urías for taking part in time regardless of having extra upside offensively and — actually in Frazier’s case and maybe in Urías’ — defensively. He appears the almost certainly of that bunch to have an enormous September.
Meyer: Every nice staff wants a people hero, and Frazier has the possibility to be that for this one if it makes a postseason run. For many of the season, the veteran second baseman has been a league common hitter and a under common defender. But, whether or not there’s rhyme or motive to it, he’s been clutch. No Oriole is outperforming his expectations extra with runners in scoring place than Frazier is together with his .958 OPS in such conditions. September and October are about these moments.
Schwartz: Fujinami. He giveth and he taketh, however you may’t deny he has the stuff to get vital outs in a pennant race. If he can string collectively just a few good outings and get again into Hyde’s good graces (and into extra high-leverage roles), Fujinami could have rather a lot to say about how the Orioles fare. And if he continues to be unpredictable, that’s nonetheless an affect on the staff — simply extra prone to be a destructive one. I’d guess he’ll get himself sorted out and might be a key piece of the bullpen quickly sufficient.
Who might be chosen because the Most Valuable Oriole?
Ruiz: Even if his UCL harm sidelines him for the remainder of the 12 months, Bautista nonetheless has a robust case. Despite throwing solely 61 innings, he leads Orioles pitchers in FanGraphs’ model of wins above substitute and ranks second in Baseball-Reference’s. Four instances, he pitched a scoreless backside of the ninth to ship a recreation to extras and, after the Orioles scored within the prime of the tenth, dominated the underside half to shut out a victory. He was invaluable for Hyde and the Orioles. But an absence within the closing month might be robust to miss, so I’ll say that Gunnar Henderson finally ends up a runaway winner for each MVO and AL Rookie of the Year.
Meyer: Adley Rutschman and Henderson had been the Orioles’ first two picks of the 2019 draft. They rose by way of the minor leagues collectively, debuted in the identical season and had been No. 1 total prospects to open back-to-back campaigns. Rutschman and Henderson will share this honor, too.
Schwartz: Anthony Santander, assuming he strings collectively one other few good weeks, ought to be the MVO. He’s been their finest hitter as of late and, after a gradual begin, leads all Orioles regulars in dwelling runs, doubles, RBIs, slugging and OPS. He doesn’t play a chief place defensively like Henderson or Rutschman and isn’t thought of a star, however the numbers say he’s been their finest hitter this season. But Rutschman or Henderson is extra prone to be named MVO based mostly on the intangibles.
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Source: www.bostonherald.com