Imagine a rotation of a wholesome Chris Sale, an developed Garrett Whitlock and an rising Brayan Bello because the Red Sox sneak into the postseason in 2023.
It’s bought an opportunity to be a great one.
But if the Red Sox are critical about contending in what might be Rafael Devers’ last yr beneath contract, they’re going to wish greater than an opportunity.
This yr’s crop of beginning pitcher free brokers is as deep as it’s high heavy. Two of the perfect pitchers in baseball, Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander, lead the group, with a pair of well-established lefties, Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, proper behind them.
After that, the market is flush with middle-of-the-rotation guys who’ve upside and well being issues. Two of them, Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha, are coming off stable seasons with the Red Sox.
Where do the Sox go from right here?
The reply bought slightly bit clearer on Wednesday, when lefty James Paxton considerably surprisingly opted right into a $4-million participant possibility that can hold him in Boston for another season.
The Red Sox gained’t complain; they gambled $6 million on Paxton final season whereas he recovered from Tommy John surgical procedure, however his restoration was stalled by a setback mid-summer, then one other harm to his lat in late August ended his season, prompting the Sox to say no a two-year, $26-million possibility.
He hasn’t been wholesome since 2019, when he went 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA for the Yankees. He made simply 5 begins in 2020, then returned to the Mariners in 2021 and pitched simply as soon as earlier than Tommy John surgical procedure ended his season.
In his prime, Paxton was one of many league’s premier lefties, with a 3.42 ERA and 9.5 strikeout-per-nine-inning ratio over seven seasons in Seattle. If he can regain a few of that kind in 2023, he’ll make himself a great chunk of change subsequent winter.
He’ll additionally give the Red Sox a much-needed beginning pitcher to spherical out the rotation, a luxurious that might afford them the chance to go heavier on one pitcher as a substitute of spreading cash round to a number of.
Currently, they’ve a employees that features Sale, who remains to be recovering from a fractured wrist as a consequence of an alleged bicycle accident, Nick Pivetta and Whitlock, who was pitching out of the bullpen earlier than he underwent season-ending hip surgical procedure in September.
Red Sox common supervisor Brian O’Halloran advised reporters on the GM Meetings in Las Vegas on Wednesday that Whitlock would put together to be a beginning pitcher subsequent yr and that Tanner Houck would even be stretched out, however in Houck’s case there’s a great probability he finally ends up sticking within the bullpen.
That leaves a rotation of Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello and Paxton as a stable beginning 5, however a really health-dependent group.
There’s extra depth with Josh Winckowski, Kutter Crawford and Connor Seabold, however neither of them are projected as something greater than a back-end starter/mop-up man. Maybe that is the yr Bryan Mata makes his huge league debut.
One approach or one other, the Red Sox needs to be within the hunt for a beginning pitcher this offseason, and Paxton’s return provides them some added safety at the back of the rotation that ought to permit them to be much less involved about depth and extra involved about top-end expertise.
If Sale doesn’t make a full restoration, doesn’t make it by means of a full season or doesn’t regain effectiveness — and given his latest historical past, odds are stacked towards him — the Red Sox can be banking their complete season closely on the event of Whitlock and Bello.
If they’re OK with a rebuilding yr, they’ll let the kids lead the employees and let the chips fall the place they could.
But if the Sox are critical about being aggressive in Devers’ final yr beneath contract, they should use their historic payroll flexibility to truly land one of many huge fish.
Verlander or deGrom will make any crew an prompt contender. Reach the playoffs with a type of guys on the entrance of the rotation and your crew has a shot at a title. But deGrom, 34, is coming off an injury-plagued season that noticed him battle in huge video games on the finish of the yr whereas Verlander, 40, comes together with his personal questions given his age, regardless of posting the most effective seasons of his profession in 2022.
Either one will value a crew $35-$45 million per season, however seemingly on short-term offers that might profit a crew just like the Red Sox, who’re caught in the course of rebuilding and reloading.
Are the Red Sox set as much as be aggressive over the subsequent two or three years? Not actually, however they at present have an anticipated payroll of about $150 million, $84 million away from the posh tax, and are a big-market crew anticipated to spend cash this winter.
They might attempt to go the finances route, attacking their pitching wants with a high-end reliever and mid-tier starters, or they’ll throw a bag of money at Verlander or deGrom and immediately flip themselves right into a contender.
At least with Paxton in tow, they’ve beginning depth to play with.
Now they want some heavy hitters (and pitchers) on the high of the roster.
Source: www.bostonherald.com