By Robert Yoon, Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump and Nikki Haley will face off Saturday in South Carolina’s first-in-the-South Republican presidential main, the primary head-to-head matchup for the final two remaining main candidates for the reason that New Hampshire main a month in the past.
The contest takes place on Haley’s dwelling turf. She was South Carolina’s governor for six years earlier than stepping down in 2017 to function U.N. ambassador when Trump was elected president. Despite her historical past, Haley faces sturdy headwinds in a state the place Trump has the help of a lot of the get together institution, has held a considerable lead in current polls and enjoys excessive reputation among the many conservative base.
Both candidates have made sharp assaults in opposition to the opposite, with Trump utilizing derisive nicknames for Haley and enjoying down her work in his Cabinet. Haley has more and more questioned Trump’s health for workplace, most not too long ago criticizing his feedback on Russia and NATO. It is a marked distinction from earlier within the marketing campaign when she and different GOP hopefuls averted criticizing Trump instantly.
The South Carolina main is normally an indicator of which candidate will win the Republican presidential nomination. Since the fashionable model of the state’s main started in 1980, all however one GOP main winner has gone on to win the get together’s nomination. The lone exception was Newt Gingrich in 2012.
A have a look at what to anticipate on election evening:
PRIMARY DAY
The main will probably be held Saturday and polls will shut statewide at 7 p.m. EST.
WHAT’S ON THE BALLOT
The poll will record Ryan Binkley, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, David Stuckenberg, and Trump.
WHO GETS TO VOTE
South Carolina has an open main system, which implies any registered voter could take part in any get together’s main. But voters could solely take part in a single get together’s presidential main, so individuals who voted within the Democratic main on Feb. 3 could not vote within the Republican contest.
Only about 4% of registered voters forged ballots within the Democratic contest, leaving the majority of the voters, together with any Democrats and independents who favor Haley over Trump and didn’t vote within the earlier contest, eligible to weigh in on the Republican race.
DELEGATE ALLOCATION RULES
There are 50 delegates at stake and 29 will probably be awarded to the winner of the statewide vote. Twenty-one delegates will probably be allotted in response to the vote in every of the state’s seven congressional districts. The high vote-getter in every district will get three delegates from that district.
DECISION NOTES
The final time Haley gained a aggressive GOP main in South Carolina was in 2010, when she was the highest vote-getter in a four-way main and was pressured to a runoff, which she gained handily. Six years later, Trump gained a crowded six-way race within the state’s presidential main on his method to capturing the White House and turning into the dominant determine in Republican politics.
Republican electoral politics have modified dramatically for the reason that final time Haley and Trump every confronted different Republican candidates within the Palmetto State. Still, their previous election outcomes do present some clues for Saturday’s main.
In their final aggressive South Carolina primaries, Haley’s strongest showings and a few of Trump’s worst had been in counties the place Democrats carry out finest typically elections.
Trump carried 44 of the state’s 46 counties within the 2016 main, all besides Richland and Charleston, the second- and third-most populous. Haley gained these counties by extensive margins in her 2010 runoff, as did Democrat Joe Biden within the 2020 basic election.
Haley’s different strongest areas in 2010 had been the comparatively small counties of Bamberg, Lee, Marlboro and Orangeburg, all of which Biden carried, in addition to Dorchester and Chesterfield, which Biden misplaced to Trump.
The outcomes are broadly in line with Haley’s performances to this point within the 2024 presidential primaries. Her strongest showings in Iowa and New Hampshire had been within the states’ Democratic-friendly areas and her worst had been in Republican-friendly areas.
These outcomes recommend that Haley’s finest likelihood to win in South Carolina, or for a aggressive outcome, can be to win large within the state’s Democratic areas, particularly in vote-rich Charleston and Richland, whereas staying aggressive within the largest county of Greenville and minimizing the margins in closely Republican areas. Likewise, she would probably must carry out properly in votes forged earlier than Election Day, which would be the first votes reported on election evening in most counties.
The Associated Press doesn’t make projections and can declare a winner solely when it’s decided there isn’t any state of affairs that might permit the trailing candidates to shut the hole. If a race has not been referred to as, the AP will proceed to cowl any newsworthy developments, comparable to candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will clarify that it has not but declared a winner and clarify why.
WHAT DO TURNOUT AND ADVANCE VOTE LOOK LIKE
There are about 3.3 million registered voters in South Carolina. Voters don’t register by get together. Turnout within the 2016 Republican main was about 25% of registered voters. It was about 22% within the 2012 main.
Saturday’s contest would be the first Republican presidential main held within the state since a brand new early voting regulation was enacted in May 2022. The regulation permits voters to forged ballots in-person earlier than Election Day with out an excuse.
The early voting interval for the GOP main is Feb. 12-22, excluding Feb. 18-19. In the 2016 Republican main, when voters had to offer an excuse to forged an absentee poll, about 8% of votes had been forged earlier than Election Day. In the 2022 midterm primaries, after the brand new regulation went into impact, pre-Election Day voting was at about 21%. About 36% of votes forged within the Feb. 3 Democratic main had been earlier than Election Day.
As of Tuesday evening, greater than 139,000 voters had forged their ballots.
HOW LONG DOES VOTE-COUNTING USUALLY TAKE?
In the 2024 South Carolina Democratic main, the AP first reported outcomes at 7:08 p.m. EST.
Primary evening tabulation ended at 10:47 p.m. EST with practically 100% of votes counted.
As of Saturday, there will probably be 142 days till the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and 255 till the November basic election.
Source: www.bostonherald.com”