Bhuvan Bhaskar
Indian agriculture and allied sector has grown at the rate of 3.9% during the year 2021-22. This growth rate is higher (3.6%) than that of 2020-21, but lower (4.3%) than that of 2019-20. This is a way of looking at the agriculture sector, in which one can be satisfied that the agriculture sector is returning to its pace despite the mild shock of the Corona period. But the flip side of this is that in 2020-21, when the entire economy and every sector of the economy shrank, the agriculture sector registered a growth even at that time. Thus, during 2021-22, when the entire economy seems to be achieving a growth rate of more than 9%, the agriculture sector being almost at the same level as last year tells a different story.
The gravity of this story increases when the entire growth rate is looked at in the context of the Modi government’s plan to ‘doubling farmers’ income’. The Ashok Dalwai Committee was constituted in 2016 by the Modi government, which was entrusted with the responsibility of making recommendations on steps to be taken to double the income of farmers in 5 years.
According to the committee, for doubling the income of farmers in 5 years, 10% growth rate should be achieved in agriculture sector every year. But the manner in which this growth rate has been decelerating between the plan period i.e. 2017-22, it does not appear from any point of view that the government policies and programs have had any impact on the agriculture sector.
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The Modi government took over the reins of power in May 2014 and the agriculture and allied sectors grew at -0.2% in 2014-15, though it rose to a bumper level of 6.8% in 2016-17. In the next year 2017-18 also it remained almost at the same level with 6.6% but in 2018-19 it was less than half to 2.6%. The growth rate for the subsequent 3 years was around 4% (details see in first paragraph). It is clear that the government has completely failed to achieve the target of increasing the income of the farmers.
According to the latest NSSO survey, the share of crops in the income of Indian farmers is only 37%, while the share of allied sectors, which basically include animal husbandry, poultry, fisheries, etc., has increased to above 15%.
If we look at the 5 years from 2015-16 to 2019-20, the growth rate of the Livestock sector has been 8.15% on an average. That is, the farmers who are increasing their participation in allied sectors along with agriculture, their income is also increasing. The government has also acknowledged this fact and has therefore consistently increased the budgetary allocation for the subsidiary sectors from budget-to-budget. But the final conclusion is that let alone doubling the income of farmers, not even 25% has increased. At least that’s what the figures are saying.
Actually the problem is not doubling the income of the farmers. The problem would have been the non-doubling of income if it had become one and a half times or two and a half times. Then it could be said that there were lapses at certain levels, due to which this figure did not reach twice. But looking at the latest NSSO data released on the survey conducted in 2019, an average Indian farmer earns Rs 3,798 a month from cultivating crops. He earns about Rs 1,582 from animal husbandry and Rs 641 from any kind of business. He gets the largest share of earnings i.e. Rs 4,063 as wages and salary.
It is clear from these figures that the farmer earns almost as much as he cultivates. This wage can also be done under MGNREGA or it can be in return for the service rendered on someone’s land as an agricultural laborer. But the bottom line is that the average monthly income of an Indian farming family is Rs 10,084. In this, the cost of labor given by the farmer, his wife/husband, children has not been added, otherwise it will be even less.
We do not have official figures for 2017, but according to the last survey conducted by NSSO in 2013, the average monthly income from agriculture of an Indian farmer was Rs 3,081. If this is adjusted for inflation, the income of farmers has actually decreased by 5% between 2013 and 2019. The committee itself, based on the 2012-13 survey of NSSO, had estimated that the annual average income of farmers in the base year of 2015-16 was Rs 96,703, which could be increased to Rs 1,92,694 by 2022-23 (at a constant level of 2015-16). ) or target to reach Rs 2,71,378 (at current price level). On the 2019 survey, this income had reached around Rs 1.20 lakh, and that too at the current price level.
That is, as said earlier, the problem is not that the income has not been doubled, the problem is that this goal was announced without understanding the ground reality, just like a political slogan, doubling the income of the farmers. If one has a look at the recommendations of the Ashok Dalwai Committee in this regard, then this thing becomes more clear. Almost all the recommendations of the committee are either related to agriculture infrastructure, or a fundamental change in the existing methods of marketing of agricultural produce, or else there is a need for a radical change in the already existing farming culture in the country.
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For example, the committee says that the cultivation of cereals covers 50% of the land in terms of land, but gives only 22% of the value and needs to be changed, so obviously this work will be done in a year or two. Can not be done. Similarly, the committee also calls for market architecture, agricultural marketing reforms, setting up of a market intelligence system and developing a market-linked ‘farm to plate’ agricultural production system. Are these things to happen in a year or two. It took 6 years for the Narendra Modi government itself to bring three laws of agricultural reforms and what happened to them is well known.
The conclusion is that there is no single formula for doubling the income of Indian farmers and doubling can never be a goal. The goal should be to free the different sectors of agriculture from the stagnation stuck in the 1960s. Once Indian agriculture comes out of the rut of the Green Revolution reforms, only then will its right flight begin and only then the income will double, quadruple or even six times.
(The author is a specialist in economic and agricultural matters)
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