WASHINGTON — Control of each chambers of Congress is in play this 12 months, and Federal Election Commission knowledge reveals Senate and House candidates up this 12 months have already raised almost $1.4 billion and spent $881 million.
But all elections are most decidedly not created equal.
On Super Tuesday subsequent week, 5 of the 16 states holding presidential primaries or caucuses may even maintain congressional primaries that may decide nominees for 115 House seats, or greater than 1 / 4 of the chamber.
And whereas some lawmakers’ careers could possibly be on the road in Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina and Texas, it’s a unique story for dozens of their colleagues, a few of whom haven’t any opposition in any respect or solely a nominal main problem with nobody from the opposite main get together even submitting to run.
Because of gerrymandering or the partisan lean of the areas they symbolize — in some areas, mapmakers couldn’t draw aggressive districts in the event that they wished to — many House members symbolize districts the place the opposing get together has virtually no likelihood of flipping their seats.
In the 61 districts held by Democrats having primaries on March 5, Joe Biden’s common margin over Donald Trump in 2020 was 33 proportion factors, CQ Roll Call discovered utilizing knowledge compiled by Daily Kos Elections. Biden’s common margin grows to 39 factors if the evaluation excludes three districts in North Carolina that have been redrawn by the Republican-controlled legislature final 12 months to comprise voters who backed Trump over Biden by double-digit margins.
In the 54 districts held by Republicans which can be up, Biden misplaced to Trump by a median of 20 factors.
Viewed one other manner: Of the 115 seats up on Super Tuesday, 99 have races in November rated as Solid Republican or Solid Democratic by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. That signifies solely members of these events pose an actual risk to incumbents searching for reelection, but lots of these lawmakers don’t even face that. Here’s what the March 5 ballots present:
No opposition in sight: Seven incumbents not solely haven’t any opponent in their very own get together, they’ve nobody within the reverse get together working for the nomination to face them in November. Five are from Texas: Republicans Nathaniel Moran, August Pfluger and Ronny Jackson and Democrats Al Green and Joaquin Castro. The others are Republicans Dale Strong of Alabama and Greg Murphy of North Carolina. Pfluger had $2.4 million in his marketing campaign account on Feb. 14, the newest submitting reveals; Jackson had $2.2 million and raised $279,000 within the first six weeks of this 12 months alone.
Solo Democrats: There are 21 extra Democrats with races rated Solid Democratic who haven’t any Democratic opponents this 12 months. They embrace 5 with partisan primaries on Super Tuesday: North Carolina Reps. Valerie P. Foushee and Alma Adams and Texas Reps. Henry Cuellar, Sylvia R. Garcia and Greg Casar. They additionally embrace 16 members from California, the place the state’s primaries decide two November candidates no matter get together, a course of that might produce Democrat vs. Democrat battles in very blue areas if somebody ran within the main. Yet Reps. Jared Huffman, John Garamendi, Mark DeSaulnier, Eric Swalwell, Kevin Mullin, Jimmy Panetta, Jim Costa, Judy Chu, Pete Aguilar, Ted Lieu, Linda T. Sánchez, Mark Takano, Nanette Barragán, Lou Correa, Sara Jacobs and Juan C. Vargas all face no Democratic challengers. Chu, Panetta and Aguilar every have greater than $3 million of their marketing campaign accounts.
Solo Republicans: There are 15 extra Republicans going through races rated Solid Republican with no Republican opposition this 12 months. They are Arkansas Reps. Rick Crawford, French Hill and Bruce Westerman; California Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Tom McClintock, Jay Obernolte and Darrell Issa; North Carolina Rep. David Rouzer; and Texas Reps. Lance Gooden, Morgan Luttrell, Randy Weber, Chip Roy, Troy Nehls, Beth Van Duyne and Wesley Hunt. Westerman, Van Duyne and Hunt every have greater than $2 million of their marketing campaign accounts.
Smooth crusing after main: Another 5 Republicans in districts that backed Trump over Biden by 23 to 62 proportion factors have closely underfunded main challengers and no Democrat working to face them in November. They are Alabama Reps. Mike D. Rogers and Robert B. Aderholt and Texas Reps. Daniel Crenshaw, Jodey C. Arrington and Roger Williams. Rogers, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee, and Arrington, who chairs the Budget Committee, every had $1.6 million of their marketing campaign accounts on Feb. 14, whereas Rogers’ best-funded opponent had $479 and Arrington’s had $2,115. There’s additionally no Democrat working within the open sixth District in North Carolina, which Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning determined to not defend after the map was redrawn from a district that backed Biden by 12 factors to 1 that backed Trump by 16 factors. Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas, in the meantime, has no Republican opponent if she will get nominated once more within the thirtieth District, which backed Biden over Trump by 57 factors. One of Crockett’s Democratic challengers didn’t increase sufficient to file an FEC report, and the opposite had $2,075 on Feb. 14. She had $607,000 in her marketing campaign fund.
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Source: www.bostonherald.com”