President Biden might make historical past through the 2024 presidential cycle, when he might change into the primary incumbent White House candidate to ever lose a celebration major in New Hampshire — and it most likely gained’t make a little bit of distinction, in accordance with one historian.
With the Granite State and the Democratic National Committee on a political collision course of the liberals’ making, the president’s identify might stay off the New Hampshire Democratic major poll fully, successfully handing victory to both Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Marianne Williamson.
In setting this cycle’s major schedule final February, the DNC and Biden, absolutely noting the president’s previous marketing campaign had turned itself round in South Carolina, sought to shake up the state-by-state voting order and put the Palmetto State forward of New Hampshire.
South Carolina is extra consultant of the broader Democratic voting base, with extra giant cities and other people of colour than the sparsely populated New England state which usually leads the way in which, in accordance with celebration leaders.
There’s only one downside: the regulation in New Hampshire.
“The presidential primary election shall be held on the second Tuesday in March or on a date selected by the secretary of state which is (seven) days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election, whichever is earlier,” New Hampshire state regulation dictates.
Biden truly already made historical past there, in 2020, when he turned the primary particular person to win the presidency regardless of a poor fifth-place efficiency within the first-in-the-nation major state’s contest. No president had finished worse than second earlier than that.
South Carolina, DNC Chair Jaime Harrison has mentioned, “has been in your early state window now for almost two decades. And if you look at the other early state parties or states during that time — you look at Iowa and New Hampshire and Nevada — South Carolina has been the best indicator.”
That could also be so, however New Hampshire isn’t going to have the ability to adjust to the nationwide celebration’s needs, in accordance with the state’s Republican Secretary of State, Dave Scanlan.
“If South Carolina is scheduled as the first primary, (ours) would be at least seven days before that,” Scanlan instructed Fox News final week.
Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has scoffed on the thought of fixing the regulation and conservatives in charge of each chambers of the state Legislature have made no transfer to take up any change.
Ray Buckley, Chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, has mentioned he suspects that Biden will merely not put his identify on the poll within the Granite State, however that the state would maintain a major come what may.
If it looks like a probably pricey but fully avoidable political error, Rutgers University presidential historian David Greenberg says the electoral-kerfuffle gained’t matter all that a lot ultimately.
“I don’t think that skipping New Hampshire is an unforced error — or an error at all — on Biden’s part,” Greenberg instructed the Herald. “Let’s say Kennedy wins. Why would it matter? Well, maybe he picks up some delegates. But if the DNC has decided that New Hampshire can’t go first, then it may choose not to honor those delegates at the convention. Or those delegates may get to Chicago and join the Biden bandwagon. Biden is still going to wind up with 95%+ of the delegates.”
There is precedent, Greenberg mentioned, that exhibits the states that don’t comply additionally don’t find yourself making an electoral distinction elsewhere. Voters should not identified for having lengthy recollections.
“Remember in 2008 when Hillary (Clinton) won Michigan and Florida? The media ignored it because they were operating against party rules and (former President Barack) Obama didn’t compete there,” Greenberg mentioned.
If Biden can win in South Carolina, and other people perceive what occurred in New Hampshire, the Granite State outcomes merely gained’t change the course of Biden’s marketing campaign, Greenberg mentioned.
“Any bad press Biden gets will pass as soon as he wins South Carolina. Remember in 2020, Biden finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire. He got some negative media coverage, but it passed,” he mentioned. “So I see no downside. It’ll be a one-day story, and a story, if responsibly reported, that will note that Biden didn’t compete.”
Source: www.bostonherald.com”