SBI research report: According to SBI’s research report-Ecowrap, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can grow by 5.8 percent in the third quarter of the financial year. Economic growth in the second quarter of FY 2021-22 stood at 8.4 per cent, thus surpassing pre-pandemic levels. However, growth in the July-September period was lower at 20.1 per cent in the previous quarter.
The NSO will announce the GDP estimates for the third quarter of the current fiscal on February 28.
slashed GDP growth forecast for 2021-22
The report released on Friday said, “According to the SBI Nowcasting model, the estimated GDP growth for the third quarter of the financial year 2021-22 will be 5.8 percent. The GDP growth forecast for the financial year 2021-22 has been reduced from 9.3 per cent to 8.8 per cent. Nowcasting model is based on 41 high frequency indicators related to industrial activity, service activity and global economy.
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Private consumption still low
According to the report, real GDP will increase by Rs 2.35 lakh crore / 1.6 percent to Rs 145.69 lakh crore as compared to FY 20.
According to the report, the pace of domestic economic activity is not as expected. Private consumption has still not reached the level before Corona. Some indicators are also indicating a moderation in demand in the December quarter, which is also in the month of January.
Rural demand weak, but urban demand improving
Talking about rural demand, since August 2021, there is a steady decline in the sales of two wheelers and tractors. In January, the domestic tractor sales registered a huge decline of 32.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis. There has also been a sharp decline in the sales of two wheelers in January.
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In terms of urban demand indicators, sales of consumer durables and passenger vehicles registered a decline in the December quarter. Domestic air traffic has also come down due to the Omicron variant. However, there is a gradual improvement in investment.
The poor of the villages can get a loan of 50 thousand
The report indicates that the government may offer livelihood loans up to Rs 50,000 to the poor in the villages. With the help of this loan, the government can increase consumption, which is very important for the economy.
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