Most Democratic incumbents and challengers in battleground Senate races raised greater than opponents over the past three months of 2023 and had greater bankrolls in the beginning of the yr, new filings with the Federal Election Commission present.
Some races are nonetheless taking form, nonetheless. In Wisconsin, Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin is successfully unchallenged, however that would change quickly.
Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey was outraised by his seemingly Republican opponent however had more cash available on Dec. 31. But like different endangered Democrats, Casey’s opponent has already put $1 million of his personal cash into the race and is anticipated to spend extra. Outside committees additionally will be anticipated to layer extra thousands and thousands on prime of what candidates spend, although additionally they pay a lot increased charges for TV promoting so the cash doesn’t go as far.
The battlefield for Democrats to defend their slim 51-49 governing majority nonetheless tilts upward, particularly after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin III determined to not defend his seat, shifting the score for that race to Solid Republican by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.
Below is a rundown of key races, ranked by their Inside Elections score, and what the most recent stories masking the ultimate three months of 2023 present.
Toss-up races
Arizona: Independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema maintains the most important struggle chest, with about $10.6 million available on the finish of the quarter, however her meager fundraising of $595,000 is elevating questions on whether or not she intends to run for reelection. Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego raised greater than $3.3 million within the quarter and has about $6.5 million available. Kari Lake, the more than likely Republican candidate, introduced in $2.1 million however has solely about half that within the financial institution. Fellow Republican Mark Lamb, the Pinal County sheriff, raised about $265,000.
Montana: Democrat Jon Tester continues to outpace his Republican opponents. Tester introduced in $5.5 million and had greater than $11.2 million within the financial institution. Tim Sheehy, the popular candidate of Senate Republican management, raised $2.4 million, although $450,000 got here from the candidate himself. Sheehy, a co-founder and CEO of Belgrade, Mont.-based aerial firefighting firm Bridger Aerospace, had $1.3 million available. Rep. Matt Rosendale, who has not formally entered the Senate race however is extensively anticipated to run, raised just below $100,000 and had $1.6 million available.
Ohio: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown introduced in $6.6 million and had $14.6 million available on the finish of the yr, giving him the most important struggle chest of any of the battleground Democratic incumbents. Brown’s three Republican rivals proceed to path him in fundraising. State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose household owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball group, raised $357,653 and had $4.8 million within the financial institution. Businessman Bernie Moreno raised $800,000 and had $2 million available and Secretary of State Frank LaRose raised $812,000 and had $771,000 available.
Tilt Democratic races
Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen, the Democratic incumbent, seems to be lapping the sphere in each fundraising and money available. The Republican front-runner, veteran Sam Brown, raised over $1.8 million within the quarter, however his marketing campaign has barely lower than that within the financial institution. Elsewhere on the GOP aspect, Jeff Gunter, who was ambassador to Iceland below former president Donald Trump, raised $215,000 whereas Jim Marchant, who beforehand ran for secretary of state and misplaced, raised $160,000.
Pennsylvania: In Pennsylvania, Republican David McCormick, a former hedge fund supervisor who has consolidated social gathering assist within the state, outraised incumbent Casey, who’s in search of a fourth time period. McCormick raised $5.5 million within the fourth quarter, together with $1 million of his personal cash. That was greater than Casey’s $3.7 million haul, though Casey has greater than double what McCormick has within the financial institution. Casey ended 2023 with $9.4 million available, whereas McCormick had $4.2 million.
Lean Democratic races
Michigan: Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads the cash race in opposition to different Democrats and Republicans in search of to succeed retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Slotkin raised $2.8 million within the last three months of 2023 and had $6 million available on the finish of the yr. The different Democrats operating, businessman Nasser Beydoun and actor Hill Harper, raised $457,424 and $303,185, respectively. Beydoun had $349,000 available and Harper had $154,000.
Among the Republicans operating, former Rep. Mike Rogers, who has the assist of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, raised $1 million and had $945,600 available on the finish of December. Former Rep. Peter Meijer raised $508,000, together with $107,000 of his personal cash. Sandy Pensler, a businessman who launched his marketing campaign in December, raised the many of the Republicans operating, $1.1 million, almost all of which was from himself.
Wisconsin: Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin raised $3 million within the fourth quarter of 2023, bringing her whole money available to $8 million on the finish of final yr. Two Republicans are difficult her thus far. Trempealeau County Board Supervisor Stacey Klein raised $20,000 and had $5,100 available, whereas Rejani Raveendran, a political newcomer, raised $2,500 and had $427 available. A Libertarian candidate, Phillip Anderson, raised $5,300, together with $3,500 of his personal cash, and had $3,800 available.
The area just isn’t but set, nonetheless. Eric Hovde, a businessman who ran for Senate in 2012 and will contribute his personal cash to a marketing campaign, might launch a marketing campaign quickly, as might Scott Mayor, one other businessman. Also, former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke has teased a possible bid.
Likely Democratic races
New Jersey: Sen. Bob Menendez’s fundraising dried up after his indictment in September, and two Democrats vying for his seat had virtually equal bankrolls on the finish of the yr. Menendez took in $104,000 in the course of the quarter, however $88,000 of it was from curiosity on funds that had been already in his account, and the contributions he did get had been offset by an almost equal quantity of refunds. He completed the quarter with $6.2 million.
Democratic Rep. Andy Kim and New Jersey first woman Tammy Murphy, in the meantime, every had $2.7 million available on Dec. 31 as they put together for a major battle which will or many not embrace Menendez, who is ready for trial in May. Republican Christine Serrano Glassner reported elevating $266,000, $200,000 of which got here from a private mortgage.
Likely Republican race
Texas: In his quest to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, Democratic Rep. Colin Allred raised $4.8 million and had about $10 million within the financial institution. Cruz raised $3.4 million and had about $6 million available. Democratic state Sen. Roland Gutierrez took in $433,425 in the course of the quarter and had $314,632 in his account.
Solid Democratic open seats
California: When it involves fundraising, Rep. Adam Schiff continues to crush his fellow California Democrats operating for the state’s open Senate seat. Schiff raised $6.2 million and had almost $35 million available. Rep. Katie Porter raised $3 million and had about $13 million available, and Rep. Barbara Lee raised about $1 million however had simply $815,960 in her marketing campaign account. Republican Steve Garvey, a former baseball participant and first-time candidate, raised $610,920 and had $308,160 available.
Delaware: Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester raised $1.1 million and had $2.3 million available on the finish of 2023. Republican businessman Eric Hansen raised $45,000 and contributed $400,000 of his personal cash. He and ended 2023 with $422,000 available.
Maryland: Democratic Rep. David Trone, the Total Wine & More co-founder who has largely self-funded his House campaigns, gave his marketing campaign $13.5 million within the last three months of 2023, almost all the $13.7 million he raised in that point. But he’s spending shortly too, and had simply $455,000 available on the finish of the yr.
Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County government additionally in search of the Democratic nomination, raised $1.8 million and had $3.1 million available on the finish of December. On the Republican aspect, Robin Ficker raised $2.4 million, almost all of it a private mortgage, and had $2.2 million available on the finish of the yr. John Teichert raised $304,000 together with $5,500 of his personal cash, and had $221,000 available on the finish of the yr.
Solid Republican open seats
Indiana: Republican Rep. Jim Banks has a fundraising edge within the race to succeed Sen. Mike Braun, who’s operating for governor. Banks introduced in $909,000 and had about $3 million available on the finish of the yr. Democrat Marc Carmichael raised about $14,000 and had $51,000 available, together with $1,000 of his personal cash.
Utah: In Utah’s race for the seat that Sen. Mitt Romney is giving up, Republican Brad Wilson, the previous state House speaker, raised near $300,000 and had about $2 million in his marketing campaign account. Republican Rep. John Curtis raised $817,563 and had simply over $1 million within the financial institution, and Republican Trent Staggs raised $255,072 and had simply over $500,000.
West Virginia: West Virginia’s Republican governor, Jim Justice, raised $606,000 in his bid for Manchin’s seat, and had $1.2 million within the financial institution. His rival for the GOP nomination, Rep. Alex Mooney, reported elevating $482,000 and had about $1.7 million on the shut of the yr.
Florida battle
Sen. Rick Scott’s race is rated Solid Republican, however the incumbent who narrowly gained six years in the past when he flipped the seat just isn’t sitting again, and continued to place his personal cash into the marketing campaign.
Of the $4.7 million in whole receipts Scott reported within the fourth quarter, about $1.6 million got here from donors whereas $3.1 million got here from private loans and contributions. Since he gained the seat, Scott’s private contributions and loans have totaled $7.7 million.
Democrat Debbie Mucarsel Powell, a former House member vying to problem Scott, reported whole receipts of almost $2.1 million donors, together with $986,000 from folks giving lower than $200. She had $1.5 million on Dec. 31, whereas Scott had $3.2 million.
Democrat Stanley Campbell additionally put $1 million into his marketing campaign for the nomination, and raised $22,000 from donors. He had $914,000 on the finish of the quarter. Republican Keith Gross, who’s difficult Scott within the major, reported elevating $373,000, almost all of it from a private mortgage, and had $64,000 on Dec. 31.
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