By JOSEPH KRAUSS (Associated Press)
Over the final 5 months, Israel has killed hundreds of Hamas fighters, destroyed dozens of their tunnels and wreaked unprecedented destruction on the Gaza Strip.
But it nonetheless faces a dilemma that was clear from the beginning of the warfare and can in the end decide its consequence: It can both attempt to annihilate Hamas, which might imply virtually sure loss of life for the estimated 100 hostages nonetheless held in Gaza, or it could possibly reduce a deal that may permit the group to assert a historic victory. Hamas has been designated as a terrorist group by the United States, Canada and the European Union.
Either consequence could be excruciating for Israelis. Either would possible seal an ignominious finish for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s lengthy political profession. And both may be seen as acceptable by Hamas, which valorizes martyrdom.
Netanyahu, not less than in public, denies there may be any such dilemma. He has vowed to destroy Hamas and get well all of the hostages, both by way of rescue missions or cease-fire agreements, saying victory might come “in a matter of weeks.”
As lengthy because the warfare rages, he can keep away from early elections that polls strongly counsel would take away him from energy. But it appears inevitable that in some unspecified time in the future a selection must be made between the hostages and army victory.
Hamas, in the meantime, seems to be in no hurry to achieve a short lived cease-fire forward of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins subsequent week, or to delay an anticipated Israeli operation in Rafah, the southern metropolis the place half of Gaza’s inhabitants has sought refuge.
Hamas chief Yehya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the Oct. 7 assault towards Israel, has cause to imagine that so long as he holds the hostages, he can finally finish the warfare on his phrases.
SINWAR’S BLOODY GAMBLE
In over twenty years spent inside Israeli prisons, Sinwar reportedly realized fluent Hebrew and studied Israeli society, and he recognized a chink within the armor of his militarily superior adversary.
He realized that Israel can’t tolerate its folks, particularly troopers, being held captive, and can go to extraordinary lengths to deliver them house. Sinwar himself was amongst over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners launched in trade for a single captive soldier in 2011.
For Sinwar, the mass killings on Oct. 7 may need been a horrific sideshow to the principle operation, which was to pull giant numbers of hostages into an enormous labyrinth of tunnels beneath Gaza, the place Israel could be unable to rescue them, and the place they may function human shields for Hamas leaders.
Once that was completed, he had a robust bargaining chip that could possibly be traded for giant numbers of Palestinian prisoners, together with prime leaders serving life sentences, and an finish to the Israeli onslaught that Hamas had anticipated.
No quantity of two,000-pound bombs might overcome the technique’s brutal logic.
Israeli officers say the tunnels stretch for a whole bunch of kilometers (miles) and a few are a number of tales underground, guarded by blast doorways and booby traps. Even if Israel locates Hamas leaders, any operation would imply virtually sure loss of life for the hostages that possible encompass them.
“The objectives are quite contradictory,” stated Amos Harel, a longtime army correspondent for Israel’s Haaretz newspaper. “Of course, you can say it will take a year to defeat Hamas, and we’re moving ahead on that, but the problem is that nobody can ensure that the hostages will remain alive.”
He added that even when Israel one way or the other kills Sinwar and different prime leaders, others would transfer up the ranks and substitute them, as has occurred up to now.
“Israel will have a really hard time winning this,” Harel stated.
Israel has efficiently rescued three hostages for the reason that begin of the warfare, all of whom have been aboveground. Israeli troops killed three hostages by mistake, and Hamas says a number of others have been killed in airstrikes or failed rescue operations. More than 100 hostages have been launched in a cease-fire deal in trade for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Netanyahu says army strain will finally deliver in regards to the launch of the roughly 100 hostages, and the stays of 30 others, nonetheless held by Hamas.
But in candid remarks in January, Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s former prime basic and a member of Netanyahu’s War Cabinet, stated anybody suggesting the remaining hostages could possibly be freed with out a cease-fire deal was spreading “illusions.”
It’s arduous to think about Hamas releasing its most dear human shields for a short lived cease-fire, solely to see Israel resume its try to annihilate the group, and Hamas has rejected the concept of its leaders surrendering and going into exile.
For Sinwar, it’s higher to remain underground with the hostages and see if his wager pays off.
HOW DOES THIS END?
Netanyahu’s authorities is underneath mounting strain from households of the hostages, who worry time is operating out, and the broader public, which views the return of captives as a sacred obligation.
President Joe Biden, Israel’s most vital ally, is prone to dropping re-election in November, partly due to Democratic divisions over the warfare. The humanitarian disaster in Gaza has sparked worldwide outrage. The warfare threatens to ignite different fronts throughout the Middle East.
There’s a Hamas proposal on the desk through which the hostages come again alive.
It requires the phased launch of the entire captives in return for Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza, a long-term cease-fire and reconstruction. Israel would additionally launch a whole bunch of prisoners, together with prime Palestinian political leaders and fighters convicted of killing civilians.
Hamas would virtually definitely stay in charge of Gaza and may even maintain victory parades. With time, it might recruit new fighters, rebuild tunnels and replenish its arsenals.
It could be an especially pricey victory, with over 30,000 Palestinians killed and the overall destruction of a lot of Gaza. Palestinians would have totally different opinions on whether or not it was all price it.
A uncommon wartime ballot final 12 months discovered rising help for Hamas, with over 40% of Palestinians within the occupied West Bank and Gaza backing the group.
That help would solely develop if Hamas succeeds in lifting the longstanding blockade on Gaza, stated Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst on the Crisis Group, a world suppose tank.
“If this is able to bring some serious concessions that can make life just marginally better, then I think not only will this bolster support for Hamas, but it could also bolster support for armed resistance more broadly.”
Netanyahu has rejected Hamas’ proposal as “delusional,” however there isn’t a signal the group is backing away from its core calls for.
Israel can maintain preventing – for weeks, months or years. The military can kill extra fighters and demolish extra tunnels, whereas rigorously avoiding areas the place it thinks the hostages are held.
But in some unspecified time in the future, Netanyahu or his successor will possible need to make one of the crucial agonizing selections within the nation’s historical past, or will probably be made for them.
Associated Press author Julia Frankel in Jerusalem contributed to this report.
Follow AP’s warfare protection at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war
Source: www.bostonherald.com”