Dalal Street Week Ahead: Amid tensions in Ukraine and Russia and rising inflation in the US, FII selling and high oil prices have raised investors’ concerns. Due to this, the benchmark index declined for the second consecutive week ended February 18.
However, heavy buying on Tuesday and consolidation in the subsequent sessions limited some losses. BSE Sensex recorded a decline of 320 points and Nifty 50 by 100 points. Barring IT, no sector remained untouched by the decline. The metal sector was the top loser with a fall of 4 per cent.
Experts expect the volatility to remain high due to Ukraine-Russia tensions, expiry of February futures and options contracts next week and assembly elections.
Yesha Shah, Head (Equity Research), Samco Securities, says, “The market movement is expected to be in line with global peers next week. Markets will keep an eye on the situation between Russia-Ukraine and developments related to inflation. Energy prices may also have an impact on the market.
These 10 key factors will keep traders busy for the next week:
Ukraine-Russia standoff
Ukraine-Russia Stand Off : Globally, investors and traders are monitoring the situation between Ukraine and Russia. Experts believe, if tensions rise, there may be some selling in equities and oil prices may rise.
Media reports indicate that Russia has increased its troops along the border to attack Ukraine. It has also demonstrated ballistic and cruise missiles to show its power.
However, globally everyone wants to avoid this situation, but all eyes are on Russia. US President Joe Biden believes that Russia may attack Ukraine in the coming days.
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oil prices
Oil Prices: Due to the tension between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil has remained consistently above $ 90 per barrel. Crude is clearly an important factor for India, as it is dependent on imports for 80-85 per cent of its oil requirements. Experts believe that if tension increases, oil can cross the level of $100, which can increase selling in the Indian market.
Hemang Kapasi, Head (Equities), Sanctum Wealth, said, “Geopolitic tensions will lead to uncertainty and a rise in oil prices. Nevertheless, we believe oil will remain strong due to supply-side challenges. For the time being, oil will not come easily to $ 60-70 a barrel.
Assembly elections
Assembly Polls: The market is keeping a close eye on Manipur, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa elections. The result of these assembly elections will come on March 10.
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FII sell-off
FII Selling: Due to Ukraine-Russia tensions and the possibility of a hike in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve in March, FIIs are continuously selling in Indian equities, although domestic institutional investors are trying to make up for it. Experts expect FII sell-offs to continue at least through the first half of 2022.
George Heber Joseph, ITI Mutual Fund, said, “India is in a strong position as the earnings cycle has started in India after a difficult period. We expect the return of FIIs in the second half of calendar year 22 and calendar year 23 could be a good year in this regard.”
corona virus
Coronavirus: The situation of COVID is under control. The Center has requested the states to lift the additional restrictions. The market is expected to get support beyond this.
Chip Production: India got an offer of $ 20 billion to set up chip units, these companies came forward
technical view
Technical View : Nifty50 has formed a small bullish candle on the daily charts and a spinning top pattern is showing on the weekly chart. This indicates huge volatility in the market.
Experts expect volatility to continue with an initial support at 17,000 and resistance at 17,500.
Nagraj Shetty, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, said, “Nifty’s failure to sustain above the 17,500 level could lead to a downside correction and may once again touch the 16,840 level. It has immediate support at 17,150.
f&o cuz
F&O Cues: Expiry of futures and options is due next week, due to which volatility can be seen. Experts believe that there is support at 17,000-16,800 and resistance at 17,500-17,800.
India Wicks
India VIX : Experts believe that volatility is expected to increase next week due to Ukraine-Russia tensions and monthly expiry, but the market is showing signs of unexpected sharp jump from consolidation.
India VIX rose nearly 19 per cent on a weekly basis to reach 22.16 on Friday.
Corporate Action and Economic Data
The main corporate actions to be taken in the coming week are as follows:
global data points
The main global data points for the coming week are as follows:
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips of investment experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises its users to consult certified experts before taking investment decisions.
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