-Rajesh Mishra
Lucknow : In the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections, BJP won nearly half of the seats won by the BJP. Anti-government wave over agricultural laws. Concerned about the centralization of caste mobilization and not creating an atmosphere like religious polarization, the BJP has put its masters in western Uttar Pradesh for Mission-2022.
In the first two phases of western Uttar Pradesh with the influence of Jat, Jatav and Muslim votes, if we look at the caste equation, then Muslims are 27 percent, Scheduled Castes 25 percent and Jat 17 percent. In the 2017 assembly elections, the BJP, with the support of Jats, Jatavs and others, had captured 55 of the 58 seats in this first phase of elections. But this time the caste maths has changed and the circumstances are looking completely opposite to the BJP and despite all the efforts of the top leadership of the BJP, the matter does not seem to be forming at the moment.
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Many big leaders of BJP camped
BJP leaders like Amit Shah, CM Yogi, Swatantradev Singh, Keshav Maurya, Rajnath Singh have camped in the west and are engaged in door-to-door campaigns. It is believed that the effect of the trend of these two phases will be visible in the rest of the phases and the path of the chair of the province will also be decided by these two phases. Although the BJP’s strategy is being told different for each phase, yet in these two phases most affected by the farmers’ movement, the challenge before the BJP will be to maintain its 2017 performance.
BJP leaders facing public opposition
Experts say that the reason for BJP’s trouble is also clear. In this Muslim-majority area, Muslim voters are completely silent and many big Muslim faces are standing with the SP-RLD alliance, but are not in the electoral fray. In this stronghold of BSP, a large section of Scheduled Castes is still standing with BSP. A large number of Jat votes are showing an inclination in favor of the SP-RLD alliance, largely due to the resentment arising out of the three agricultural laws and perhaps that is why politicians from here are facing public opposition. In such a situation, BJP is seeing the biggest danger of defeat in those seats where its victory margin in the last assembly elections was 15 to 30 thousand.
First phase polling on February 10
The first phase of polling is to be held on February 10 and the first phase covers 11 districts of Shamli, Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Hapur, Noida, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, and Agra. If we look at the 2017 results of the assemblies of these districts in the first phase of western Uttar Pradesh, then the situation becomes quite clear. The victory margin of the BJP was less than 30 thousand against the opposition in about two dozen assembly seats in the districts that went to the polls in the first phase. Out of these, the number of seats that have won close to 20 thousand votes is 16.
The margin of victory in 2017 is very less
Among these, the difference between BJP’s victory in two seats of Shamli, six seats in Muzaffarnagar is only 13 thousand in Budhna, 23 thousand in Charthaval, 11 thousand in Purkaji, 10 thousand in Muzaffarnagar, 31 thousand in Khatauli and the difference of Mirpur is only about 1 thousand. And the candidate who won from here has left the BJP and joined the SP. Similarly, the margin of victory of BJP in two out of three seats in Baghpat district was 31360 in Baghpat, 26486 in Beirut. Out of 7 seats in Meerut, 6 were occupied by BJP and 1 by SP. In Siwalkhas BJP won by 11421 votes, in Sarthana BJP’s victory margin was close to 21 thousand. In Hastinapur seat, BJP candidate won by 36 thousand votes while in Kithor seat there was a difference of 10 thousand votes between BJP and SP. In the three assemblies of Hapur, two were occupied by the BJP and one on Dholana by the BSP.
BJP’s victory in Jewar assembly was by only 22 thousand votes.
In Hapur, BJP won by nearly 15,000 votes. In Garhmukteshwar, BJP had won over BSP by more than 35,000 votes. BJP’s victory in Jewar assembly in Noida was by only 22 thousand votes. In Secunderabad of Bulandshahr BJP won by 28,000 votes and in Bulandshahr by 23,000 votes. The condition of the BJP, which won 7 seats in Aligarh, was bad in Aligarh. Here the difference between BJP and SP was only 15 thousand. In Mathura’s Govardhan, BJP had won by 33 thousand votes and in Baldev, the BJP’s victory was only about 13 thousand. In Kheragarh of Agra district, BJP defeated BSP by 32 thousand votes. In Fatehabad, BJP defeated SP by about 34 thousand votes. In Bah, BJP defeated BSP by 23 thousand votes.