Union Budget 2021 India: Will the rally continue in the budget market in the stock market as well.
Indian Union Budget 2021-22: There has been a good rally in the stock market on both business days before the budget month i.e. January 2021. Both days, the market set a new record. On Monday, January 4, 2020, the Sensex crossed the 48200 mark for the first time. At the same time, the Nifty also crossed the 14150 level. So has the budget brainstorming rally started in the market. Will the Sensex strengthen 2000 points from the current level till the budget and break the level of 50 thousand. In the beginning of the new year, there are many such factors in favor of the market, which are indicating that the pre-budget rally in the market will continue. This time the situation is better than in 2020 and 2019. But in the last few years, if we see the returns of Sensex and Nifty in the budget month, there has been pressure in the market most of the time.
Sensex returns in the budget month
1 January 2020 to 1 February 2020: (-) 1.28%
5 June 2019 to 51 July 2019: (-) 0.04%
1 January 2018 to 1 February 2018: 5.6%
1 January 2017 to 1 February 2017: 4%
27 January 2016 to 26 February 2016: (-) 6.1%
28 January 2015 to 28 February 2015: (-) 1.15%
10 June 2014 to 10 July 2014: (-) 0.54%
Nifty returns in the budget month
1 January 2020 to 1 February 2020: (-) 1.09%
5 June 2019 to 51 July 2019: (-) 0.46%
1 January 2018 to 1 February 2018: 5%
1 January 2017 to 1 February 2017: 4.58%
27 January 2016 to 26 February 2016: (-) 5.30%
28 January 2015 to 28 February 2015: (-) 0.80%
10 June 2014 to 10 July 2014: (-) 0.90%
note: It is clear that if you look at the figures of the last 7 years, only the pre-budget rally has come in 2017 and 2018. If Bajtar repeats the story of those 2 years, and if there is a rally of 4 to 5 per cent in the market, then the Sensex may rise by 1800 to 1900 points from the current level. That is, the Sensex can touch the level of 50 thousand.
This time the first sentiments of the budget are good
Talking about this time, market sentiments have become stronger before the budget than in the last 2 years. In India, the use of Kovacine and Kovishield 2 Corona vaccine has been approved. Preparations for vaccinations have started on a large scale. It is estimated that about 300 million people will be vaccinated by July 2021. The stock market looks happy with the news of corona vaccine coming into the market.
The second is that from this week, the corporate earnings season is starting with TCS results. There has been a strong rally in IT stocks before the opening season. Actually, companies are expected to improve their profits in the third quarter. Strong figures of auto sales are now telling the story of improving demand and increasing consumption.
In December, the GST collection went to a record level of 1.15 lakh crore. At the same time, the interest rate remains constant. The RBI has forecast inflation in the coming months. Rural sentiments are strong. Growth has improved in the manufacturing activity of the country.
What to say about expert
Ajit Mishra, VP Research, Religare Broking, says that the market has high expectations from the budget. The government may also announce an increase in spending in the rural sector, infrastructure and agriculture sector in the budget to accelerate the economy. Apart from the banking sector and disinvestment plans, those industries which have suffered the most from Lockdignown can get packages. It includes aviation, travel and tourism, hotel industry and multiplexes. These things are positive for the market.