The Indian economic system could take greater than a decade to beat the losses emanating from the COVID-19 pandemic, mentioned a report printed by the Reserve Bank of India. In an evaluation of the impression of COVID-19 on the economic system, the report has estimated the output losses throughout the pandemic interval at round Rs 52 lakh crore.
The perturbations from repeated waves of COVID-19 have are available in the way in which of sustained restoration and the quarterly developments in GDP basically adopted the ebbs and flows of the pandemic, mentioned the chapter ‘Scars of the Pandemic’ within the Report on Currency and Finance (RCF) for the yr 2021-22.
Following a pointy contraction within the first quarter of 2020-21, the financial momentum progressively picked up until it was hit by the second wave in April-June interval of 2021-22.
Similarly, the impression of the third wave, concentrated within the month of January 2022, partially dented the restoration course of.
With the continuing Russia-Ukraine battle, the downward dangers to international and home development are getting accentuated by surge in commodity costs and international provide chain disruptions, it famous.
“The pandemic is a watershed moment and the ongoing structural changes catalysed by the pandemic can potentially alter the growth trajectory in the medium-term,” the report mentioned.
The pre-COVID development development price works out to six.6 per cent (CAGR for 2012-13 to 2019-20) and excluding the slowdown years, it stands at 7.1 per cent (CAGR for 2012-13 to 2016-17).
“Taking the actual growth rate of (-) 6.6 per cent for 2020-21, 8.9 per cent for 2021-22 and assuming growth rate of 7.2 per cent for 2022-23, and 7.5 per cent beyond that, India is expected to overcome COVID-19 losses in 2034-35,” the report mentioned.
It pegged the output losses for particular person years at Rs 19.1 lakh crore, Rs 17.1 lakh crore and Rs 16.4 lakh crore for 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23, respectively. The report has been authored by officers within the RBI’s Department of Economic and Policy Research (DEPR). The RBI, nonetheless, mentioned the findings and conclusions expressed within the report are totally these of the contributors and don’t symbolize the views of the central financial institution.
The dividends of reforms initiated to counter the pre-COVID slowdown together with further measures and initiatives throughout the pandemic will assist launch the economic system on a sustainable excessive development path, it mentioned.
As per the report, the behavioural and technological modifications led to by the pandemic could usher in a brand new regular which might not essentially ape the pre-pandemic developments however can be constructed on a extra environment friendly, equitable, clear and inexperienced foundations.
Source: www.financialexpress.com”