India’s fourth quarter GDP progress slowed to 4.1 per cent, slowest tempo of progress in a 12 months, because the omicron variant hampered financial exercise whereas the battle in Ukraine worsened gas and meals inflation. Economic progress within the final fiscal 12 months stood at 8.7 per cent, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation stated Tuesday. Manufacturing and development sectors confirmed weak progress, economists stated, nevertheless This fall 2022 GDP print was largely according to expectations.
Going forward, international macroeconomic elements similar to Russia-Ukraine battle, excessive international commodity and meals costs, and international central financial institution’s financial coverage tightening may have bearing on India’s financial progress. Economists anticipate FY 2023 GDP progress between 7% and eight%, although India is predicted to proceed to be the quickest rising main financial system of the world.
Suvodeep Rakshit, Senior Economist at Kotak Institutional Equities:
This fall GDP readings according to expectations; manufacturing, development confirmed muted progress
“The 4QFY22 GDP growth print of 4.1% and GVA growth print of 3.9% was in line with expectations even as it indicated that the economy is seeing only a gradual recovery. From the expenditure side, private consumption as well as investment growth were muted in 4QFY22 which reflected in the production side with contraction in manufacturing and weak growth in construction as well as services. However, much of services, especially contact-based services, have picked up in 1QFY23. Growth in 1QFY23 will be high given a low base (1QFY22 GDP was hit by second Covid wave). We expect FY 2023 GDP growth to be around 7.3%.”
Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge:
Contraction in manufacturing a reason behind concern
“The deceleration in GDP growth in Q4 is on expected lines. The fourth quarter was hit by the Omicron variant of COVID and aggravated supply bottlenecks due to Russia-Ukraine war. This period saw high commodity prices and domestic inflation eating into the growth prospects. The contraction in manufacturing sector – that struggled with supply bottlenecks and high input prices- in the last quarter of FY22 is a cause of concern.”
“Going forward, India’s economy will continue to feel the heat from global volatility and uncertainties. Factors like Russia-Ukraine war, high global commodity prices, pace of monetary tightening by central banks globally and overall global economic slowdown will have a bearing on India’s economy.”
Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director at Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers:
India anticipated to be stay quickest rising financial system in FY 2023
“The Q4 FY22 at 4.1% and FY22 GDP growth at 8.7% came marginally lower than our expectations. Moreover, the growth comes against the negative base of the pandemic year. Yet, there are several positive indicators as well. The rebound in capex in FY22 is the biggest positive. Even private consumption shows signs of improvement.”
“Despite the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, supply disruptions, high commodity prices, inflation and monetary tightening, we expect India to continue to be the fastest growing major economy of the world in FY23 as well with 7.5% growth.”
Rumki Majumdar, Economist at Deloitte India:
Inflation remained a persistent downside; weighed on shopper spending and manufacturing
“In the fourth quarter, we were confident that investments and exports will bolster growth. Government spending also supported growth. However, uncertainties such as the Omicron wave, geopolitical crisis and high inflation weighed on consumer demand quite significantly offsetting growth in the other expenditure categories. Consequently, growth slowed to 4.1%.”
“The difference between the real and nominal GDP suggests that inflation has been a persistent problem, and the economy has been fighting the challenge of rising prices for a long time now. Higher prices weighed on consumer wallets and production costs.”
Source: www.financialexpress.com”