The farm and allied sector recorded a good 4.1% growth within the March quarter and remained a vivid spot within the GDP information, regardless of intense heatwave curbing the yield of wheat and the farm ministry slashing its cotton harvest forecast within the newest estimate launched earlier this month.
However, a contraction in manufacturing within the fourth quarter of FY22, albeit marginal and on an inconducive base, doesn’t bode effectively for the promise of a fast and sharp turnaround in personal capex. Growth within the manufacturing sector, hit by excessive enter prices, tangled world provide chains and Covid-induced curbs on mobility within the preliminary months of the final quarter, sink to -0.2%, towards 0.3% within the earlier quarter.
Moreover, as Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale, mentioned, manufacturing contracted as anticipated however “a stronger inventory build-up suggests weaker demand.”
The change in shares, which continued to stay within the damaging zone in FY21, rose sharply in FY22 and hit as a lot as Rs 51,450 crore within the March quarter.
The hike in rates of interest, the relentless rise in commodity costs (brent crude oil has hit $120 per barrel), the persistence of supply-chain woes will pose draw back dangers to manufacturing prospects within the present fiscal.
Of course, some respite within the first quarter might come from the bottom impact (regardless of sharp year-on-year development in Q1FY22, manufacturing was solely marginally greater than in the identical interval of FY20).
As for agriculture, some analysts anticipate a marginal downward revision within the development estimate for the March quarter later, contemplating the extreme impression of erratic climate on crops in March and April.
However, going ahead, the forecast of a standard monsoon, its introduction over the Kerala coast forward of schedule and the expectations of excellent geographical distribution have brightened hopes for an additional yr of bumper harvest within the crop yr beginning July.
Source: www.financialexpress.com”