SAN JOSE, Calif. — If you’re feeling actually cruddy proper now, be part of the gang. Yes, you may need COVID. Yet once more, this time it may be the flu — or only a actually unhealthy chilly that’s making the rounds.
Figuring out why you’re sick is a little more difficult this fall amid myriad circulating viruses.
Flu season is off to an early begin. And as we head towards a 3rd winter of the COVID pandemic, specialists say the pattern that has emerged within the first two years is prone to proceed: The climate will get colder, preparations for the vacations ramp up, and COVID instances will begin to rise, too.
So in our always-complicated shifting effort to remain wholesome, listed below are some solutions to your newest questions.
Q. We hear about “flu season” each winter. Is there additionally a “COVID season” now?
A. Influenza transmission follows robust seasonal patterns, tracked rigorously by public well being specialists nicely earlier than the present pandemic. Now COVID may be falling into an identical, although less-predictable, seasonal sample as nicely.
During the primary winter of the pandemic we noticed a excessive case fee. The subsequent 12 months, in late 2021 and early 2022, we had surges, largely due to the omicron variant’s elevated transmissibility.
“It was the perfect storm,” stated Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UCSF professor of medication who focuses on infectious ailments.
And this 12 months may comply with swimsuit. “Right now we have the right time of year,” Chin-Hong cautions, “and we may have variants that have legs.”
Q. How involved ought to we be about one other winter COVID surge?
A. Chin-Hong stated he’s most nervous a few variant that’s displaying fast progress in Europe, generally known as BF.7. “It may be the most immune-invasive of the lot,” he stated, however a big surge is way from sure, and there are different variants of concern that might emerge.
Dr. Bob Wachter, chair of UCSF’s Department of Medicine, additionally expects a surge. “It almost certainly will go up this winter for one of the reasons that flu goes up,” he stated. “People go inside more, and there is more opportunity for spread.” He factors out that whereas we could have seen our worst surges to date within the winter, “counting on seasonality is dicier than it is with the flu.”
Cases within the United States have but to start out spiking, however COVID testing can also be at new lows, and the change to weekly slightly than every day reporting by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and lots of native and state well being departments may give us much less of a warning than we had throughout earlier winter surges.
But Wachter is optimistic the surge gained’t break data. “It feels unlikely to be a huge surge, given the population immunity,” however he’s additionally cautious to make predictions in any respect. “As far as I can tell, it’s all pretty unpredictable at this point.”
Q. Should I fear about catching the flu this 12 months?
A. Simply put: Yes! The flu is heading for an early rise, with positivity charges for flu testing rising fivefold from mid-August to early October within the nation. New York is displaying indicators of an early and tough flu season, in accordance with Chin-Hong. “It’s coming earlier,” he stated, “and there is already much more than last year at this time.”
Chin-Hong says that whereas the inhabitants appears to be getting stronger in terms of COVID, two years of lower-than-normal flu exercise means our inhabitants, particularly the very younger and the very previous, are much more prone than earlier than to getting very sick with influenza this 12 months.
Q. Isn’t COVID extra harmful than the flu?
A. COVID killed extra Americans in 2020 than the flu killed throughout all the decade of flu seasons earlier than that, and 2021 COVID deaths have been even greater.
But this winter, for many who are updated on COVID vaccinations, flu may be a worse bug to kick.
“At this point COVID is not any more severe than the flu,” Wachter stated. “When people said that two years ago, it was a lie meant to minimize the impact of COVID.” But now? “As a reasonably healthy guy, with five (COVID) vaccine shots, the chances of me dying of the flu are greater.”
New vaccinations, present variants that usually trigger much less extreme sickness and new profitable therapeutics have all dropped the case fatality fee for COVID prior to now three years.
But even with a decrease mortality fee, COVID is prone to nonetheless have a better loss of life toll than the flu, particularly if case charges rival earlier years. Most of our immunity has waned from earlier omicron surges, and many individuals are usually not updated on their vaccinations.
Q. What ought to I do if I begin to really feel sick?
A. If you begin feeling further run down, a cough or a tickle in your throat, the confluence of COVID and flu season may complicate your path to restoration. “Symptoms are merging more and more,” Chin-Hong stated.
It could be more durable to inform you probably have COVID immediately, so testing is essential, particularly as a result of early detection means you may get prescribed simpler therapies such because the antiviral Paxlovid, in case you are eligible.
Wachter stated if he begins feeling sick, he’ll first take a COVID take a look at immediately. If that’s detrimental, he would get examined for influenza and once more for COVID in just a few days.
Reach out to your medical supplier for the very best therapy choices.
And whether or not you might have COVID, influenza or one other virus, you may assist stop transmission by carrying a masks, washing fingers and isolating.
One factor we all know for sure: Vaccination helps stop the worst outcomes for each influenza and COVID-19. So don’t delay getting your annual flu shot and the most recent COVID boosters.
“In a different world, if everyone went out to get the booster, we might have a really mild COVID season,” Wachter stated, however with fewer than 1 in 10 individuals getting the most recent booster, “that doesn’t seem like its going to be the case.”
MediaNews Group/Tribune News Service
Source: www.bostonherald.com”