Kazakhstan is an exception: a post-Soviet Central Asian state embarking on a path of democratization and liberalization in a area dominated by authoritarian neighbors.
On Sunday the nation held a referendum—its first in 27 years—on potential amendments to the structure. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev stated the adjustments, that are projected to go, based on exit polls, would deliver an finish to the “super presidential” system and finally usher in a “Second Republic.” His predecessor,
Nursultan Nazarbayev,
held workplace for nearly 30 years.
Given at this time’s international authoritarian renaissance, the U.S. ought to welcome and encourage this trajectory. Kazakhstan’s potential transformation is consistent with Western values. It is also according to American strategic pursuits in coping with Russia and China. Western help of Mr. Tokayev’s reform efforts would improve Kazakhstan’s stability and promote American pursuits in a area of strategic significance.
If the referendum passes, it would alter 33 articles that make up greater than a 3rd of the nationwide structure. Changes embody lowering the powers of the presidency and eradicating the mechanisms Mr. Nazarbayev used to train energy unilaterally. He took workplace earlier than the Soviet breakup and didn’t relinquish it till 2019. The president will not be a member of any political get together and can not have the authority to overrule the acts of native or regional leaders. The president’s speedy members of the family could be barred from holding political posts. A constitutional court docket could be established to safeguard the structure and verify the powers of the presidency. These reforms are solely preliminary steps, Mr. Tokayev stated. In an period of world-wide democratic backsliding, when even superior industrial democracies are grappling with authoritarian tendencies, Kazakh efforts needs to be appreciated.
The referendum comes inside months of a serious disaster. In January the nation’s political elite skilled an inner wrestle whereas it was coping with well-liked unrest and violent protests over rising costs and falling requirements of dwelling. The Collective Security Treaty Organization, an alliance of post-Soviet states, despatched a Russia-led process pressure of two,500 troops to safe key services for 5 days whereas Kazakh forces quelled the violence. (Russia invaded Ukraine the next month.)
The CSTO process pressure left Kazakhstan inside every week and didn’t interact Kazakh protesters or rioters. Kazakhstan’s leaders seem to have sought Russian help to ship a message to the outdated guard that Moscow wouldn’t settle for their insurrection and they need to again off from the violence.
Mr. Tokayev’s administration understands that the nation can not afford a glacial tempo of change. Kazakhstan’s prosperity, thanks partially to grease and uranium, can’t be sustained with out better public participation within the political beliefs. The solely manner ahead is thru reforms that profit common residents.
The path from a closed to open political system have to be rigorously managed. The most harmful time in any political system happens throughout transitions, and at such instances younger democracies are most in danger. Changes require calibration, planning at house whereas navigating a deadly strategic surroundings. Kazakhstan borders Russia on the north and China on the east. Not far to the south are the re-Talibanized Afghanistan, threatening to destabilize Central Asia by terrorist motion and refugee flows, and Iran, whose international oil flows and frequent conflicts with the West make it a magnet for geopolitical strife.
The U.S. and Europe should do all they’ll to make sure that this transition to democratization, which can proceed past the referendum, succeeds. If it doesn’t, then the guts of Eurasia, which suffered a physique blow with the Taliban’s victory, might be additional in jeopardy.
If Kazakhstan delivers on its reforms, it might turn out to be an American companion able to guaranteeing that Eurasia can climate the numerous storms threatening it.
Mr. Bokhari is director of analytical improvement on the Washington-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy and a national-security and foreign-policy specialist on the University of Ottawa’s Professional Development Institute.
Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
Source: www.wsj.com”