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Tuesday, November 30, 2021

There will be relief from inflation! No bounce in oil prices expected

This time the production of mustard and groundnut is expected to increase, due to which the price of oil will not see much increase.

In the recent past, rising prices of edible oils have increased the burden on common people. However, the matter of relief is that now the possibility of inflation in edible oils is less. Experts say that this time there is an increase in the production of mustard and groundnut, due to which the price of oil will not see much increase. At the same time, there can be some relief in their prices. Let us know that the price of mustard oil (packaged) per kg in Delhi is Rs 147, compared to Rs 145 a week ago. Prices of groundnut, mustard, soya, sunflower and palm oil have also been rising.

Malaysia and Indonesia policies boost palm oil

  • How important palm oil is, it can be gauged from this that when the price of all cooking oil rises, the central government meets the need of low and middle class cooking oil through RBD (refined, bleached and deodorized) palm oil purchase. Does.
  • Most palm oil in the world is produced in Indonesia and Malaysia. India supplies 96 per cent of its oil palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. However, now Indonesia has made it mandatory to use 30 percent palm oil to make biodiesel. Malaysia has made a similar decision, making 20 per cent palm oil mandatory for biodiesel. Due to this, its price is getting faster. According to BV Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractor Association of India (SEA), this will affect the export of palm oil.
  • According to the information given on the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution website, the prices of palm oil have increased since the Corona epidemic. A year ago on March 12, the price of palm oil (packaged) was Rs 100 per kg. In a week, the price of palm oil increased rapidly and on 5 January 2021, it was at Rs 117, which increased to Rs 130 per kg on 12 January.
  • Due to the Corona epidemic, the problem of labor shortage occurred and due to this, there has been a decline in the production of palm oil. According to the information given on the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) website, the production of crude palm oil for the marketing year 2020-21 may fall by 1 lakh metric tons to 1.96 crore metric tons.
  • In India, 60 percent of palm oil is used as unbranded cooking oil, 30 percent is in branded cooking oil and foods. In addition, the remaining 10 percent of palm oil is used industrially. India is the largest palm oil importer in the world and 20 percent of the imports take place here. India consumes around 30-32 lakh metric tons of palm oil every year.

Peanut oil becoming more expensive as consumption increases

  • Talking about peanuts, its consumption in winter is very high. Due to this, there is a fast environment in its price at this time.
  • According to the information given on the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution website, prices of groundnut oil (packaged) have increased during the Corona epidemic. Last year, its price was Rs 162 per kg on 12 March 2020, which has increased to Rs 191 per kg on 12 January 2021.
  • Talking about production, the arrival of peanuts will increase. According to the information given on the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, according to the fourth assessment of Kharif 2019-20, Kharif groundnut was produced 83.67 lakh tonnes and Rabi groundnut 13.4 lakh tonnes. According to the first advance estimate of 2020-21, 93.35 lakh tonnes of kharif peanut production is estimated this time.
  • The arrival of peanuts has started. In such a situation, its prices will be almost constant.

Blending approval stabilized mustard oil prices

  • Usually, mustard oil is used in the name of the oil in most of the houses of North India. Mustard oil gained momentum as consumption increased. When the lockdown imposed by the Corona epidemic was lifted in 2020, mustard oil consumption has increased. It is also used as an antibiotic, due to which the prices were increased for some time.
  • In September last year, the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) ordered to stop blending of any other oil in mustard oil. Due to this, its price started gaining momentum. However, FSSAI withdrew its decision in December.
  • According to the information given on the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution website, the price of mustard oil (packaged) was Rs 147 per kg on 12 January 2021. Its price was Rs 154 per kg on 12 December 2020 a month ago. On 12 March 2020, before the lockdown imposed due to Corona epidemic, its price was Rs 124 per kg.
  • Mustard production is expected to be better this time. Last year, in 2019-20, 91.16 lakh tonnes of mustard was produced, whereas this time more than 100 lakh tonnes of mustard production is estimated in 2020-21.
    There is no possibility of much faster now in the price of mustard oil. Its crop will start coming from February next month. However, neither a drop in its price can be expected nor a bounce.

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Soya may decline due to bird flu

  • Brazil is the largest soy producing country in the world. After that, it is produced in America. According to Ajay Kedia, director of Kedia Commodity, this time its crop has been affected due to the dry weather in South America due to which the output may decrease.
  • The USDA has revised the production of soy in India and according to the revised data, soy production in India may decline. According to the USDA, 9 million tonnes of soy will be produced in India, which is about 20 percent less than its earlier estimate. Earlier the USDA had estimated that 114 lakh tons of soy would be produced in India.
  • According to the information given on the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution website, the price of soya oil (packaged) was Rs 134 per kg on 12 January. A month ago on 12 December 2020, its price was Rs 131 per kg and on 12 March 2020 its price was Rs 114 per kg.
  • Soya oil prices have been rising in recent times, but now there is little hope for more growth. According to Angel Broking Deputy Vice President (Commodity and Research) Anuj Gupta, the biggest reason for this is bird flu. Soybean demand from the poultry industry may decrease due to bird flu.
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