Sensex Target: About a month ago, global brokerage and research firm Morgan Stanley downgraded Indian stocks. Now this firm believes that by the end of next year i.e. December 2022, BSE Sensex can touch the level of 80 thousand. The brokerage firm believes that with the help of inclusion in the bond index globally, an investment of $ 2 thousand crore (Rs 1.49 lakh crore) can be done in India. According to Morgan Stanley, the Indian equity market can be controlled by the bulls for a long time and by the end of next year, the Sensex can touch the historic level of 80 thousand.
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Bull, 30 percent chance of base
- According to Morgan Stanley, in the bull case, the Sensex can touch the level of 80 thousand by December 2022. In this case, the brokerage firm has estimated that a capital of $ 2 trillion can come to India, there is no third wave of corona in the country, no lockdown is imposed, US dollar index and oil prices are in a limited range. and RBI’s withdrawal may be delayed. According to Morgan Stanley, the probability of this case is 30 percent.
- In the base case, there will be stability in the corona epidemic and economic recovery. RBI will exit gradually. According to the brokerage firm, the Sensex can reach the level of 70 thousand in this case.
- In Morgan Stanley’s beer case, the Sensex can fall to the level of 50 thousand. In this case, RBI can take strict action to contain inflation.
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High volatility expected
According to the global firm, investments in Indian stocks may increase due to the new profit cycle, but investors should be cautious about high volatility in the near term. According to the brokerage firm, the Indian equity market may face challenges like elections, US rate cycle, Covid wave and higher valuations. The Volatility Index India VIX fell 16 per cent this year and remains below it this year. According to analysts, the market is likely to see a boom due to the new profit cycle and supportive policy.
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Special strategy for investment
Regarding portfolio strategy, Morgan Stanley believes that financial and consumption will remain under watch due to pick-up in consumption, normalization of RBI policies and increasing share of manufacturing sector in GDP. However, the brokerage firm has advised caution regarding the export sectors. According to Morgan Stanley, the performance of large caps can be better than small and mid caps.
(Article: Kshitij Bhargava)
(US = 1 = Rs.74.43)
(The recommendations given in the story are those of the respective research analyst and brokerage firm. Financial Express Online takes no responsibility for the same. Investments in capital markets are subject to risks. Please consult your advisor before investing.)
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