Mumbai: 2021 proved to be a great year for stock market investors. The government succeeded in controlling the Chinese virus corona to a great extent by running a nationwide vaccination campaign and gave impetus to economic development. Due to which there was an all-round boom in the market and the investors cut silver fiercely. All four major indices touched new highs. The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty, which are considered to be the barometer of the economy, reached 62,245 points and 18,604 points respectively. With these, BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap, showing a broader trend of the market, also rose to a height of 24,246 points and 30,416 points respectively. Although there was some downside in the last quarter of the year due to profit-recovery pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and the outbreak of Corona’s new variant Omicron, but due to strong buying by Indian institutional and retail investors, the bullish trend is maintained. For the first time since 1991, when foreign funds were allowed in the Indian market, there was heavy sell-off by foreign investors, which lasted from October to December, but did not lead to a slowdown. All four major stock indices, including the Sensex, lost a maximum of 11%. This is a clear indication of the growing dominance of Indian retail investors. That is, now the command of the Indian market is not in the hands of foreigners, but has come in the hands of the Indian investor. This is also a good thing for the economy, because earlier foreigners used to sell whenever they wanted to bring recession. Now this worry is gone.
After the bumper returns in 2021, now in the new year 2022, the question in the mind of every investor is whether 2022 will also be beneficial for them. Analysts believe that the way Indian investors are investing continuously and the economy is getting stronger. Corporate India’s profits are increasing. The government is increasing the pace of development by doing new reforms. FDI is increasing in the country. The export business is booming. All these positive factors are heavy on some negative factors like Corona crisis and rising inflation. Therefore, there is a strong possibility of continuation of the bullish phase in 2022 as well. Although there will be heavy volatility due to negative factors, but the ‘bull run’ will continue and there is a strong possibility of the Sensex reaching the 70,000 mark.
‘enavabharat.com’ forecast of long boom in economy and market proved correct
This bullish phase will go on for a long time, it is estimated ‘enavabharat.com’ ‘ had expressed in its analysis published exactly a year ago i.e. on January 1, 2021, “Prospects for a long boom in the economy, 7 reasons why there will be a boom”. This conjecture is proving to be correct. Looking at the kind of economic situation that has arisen after the Corona crisis, it seems that there will be a big boom in the Indian economy and stock market. There are strong possibilities of a long boom in the economy. This uptrend could be similar to that of 1992-1996 and 2003-2007. That is, after 14 years, the period of long boom has started.
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who jumped so much
- Index 31.12.2020 31.12.2021 Growth
- Sensex 47,751 58,254 points +22%
- Nifty 13,981 17,354 points +24%
- Midcap 17,941 24,970 points +39%
- Smallcap 18,098 29,458 points +63%
Nifty may reach 21,100 points: Shrikant Chauhan
Shrikant Chauhan, Research Head, Kotak Securities Ltd. says that we anticipate that 2022 will also prove to be a bullish year, but the return of 2021 should not be expected due to increase in valuation. Given the GDP growth of around 8.5% to 9% and rising corporate earnings, the EPS of Nifty companies is estimated to be Rs 959 for the financial year 2024, so if calculated from the multiple of 22, then Nifty 21,100 points and Sensex up to 69,600 points. could reach.
Positive Factors: The government and the Reserve Bank have set a target of keeping the fiscal deficit from 4.5 to 4.7% by FY 2026, which was kept at 3 to 3.5% before Corona. This means there will be additional liquidity of about 40 trillion rupees in the economy. Due to which both the industry and the market will continue to get a boost. Interest rates will remain at lower levels. If the budget comes out better than the expectations and the BJP gets victory in the UP elections, then the enthusiasm of the investors will increase further. There is definitely concern about inflation, but if GDP growth of 9% comes, then the boom will continue.
Negative Factor: There is definitely concern about the new variant of Corona. If it spreads too much, the sentiment will be bad. However, everyone has less fear of spreading more than vaccination. Because of this, even if the market falls, the Nifty will likely fall only up to a maximum of 16,500 or 16,000 points. The second major negative factor was the interest rate hike in the US, but the chairman of the Federal Reserve allayed investors’ concerns by declaring a clear policy for the whole of 2022. Because of this, US markets are reaching new highs. It will also affect India.
Focus on these sectors: IT sector has become evergreen. It is showing good growth for the next 2-3 years. Apart from this, auto, infra, capital goods, financial will shine in 2022.
Attractive Investable Shares: Infosys, TCS, Reliance, Hindalco, SBI, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, Cipla, Sun Pharma are our top picks in 2022. In this, investors can expect an average return of up to 20%.
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There will be ups and downs, but the rally will run: Prashant Taapsee
Prashant Taapsee, Vice President (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd. says that despite the threat of Omicron, India’s GDP growth will be the highest in Asia due to the reforms that the Modi government has made and is doing in the last years. . Further, there will be huge volatility in the market due to corona restrictions, general budget, assembly elections in 5 states, LIC’s mega IPO and global reasons, but due to high growth rate of 9% and increasing profits of companies, the rally in the market is expected to continue. have hope.
The growing power of Indian investors
Prashant Taapsee said that a large number of new investors have come in the market in the last one year and this number is increasing. Today Monthly SIP investment has started coming in more than Rs 11,000. Foreign investors made heavy selling of Rs 1.40 lakh crore from April to December. Still, the recession did not come, as mutual funds bought shares worth Rs 1 lakh crore in front of them and retail investors and HNIs bought shares worth about Rs 40 thousand crore. This is a testament to the strength of Indian investors. We estimate that the Sensex may touch 70,000 points and Nifty 21,000 points in 2022.
Attractive Investable Shares: We expect the government to accelerate reforms in the power and fertilizer sector. Due to which the growth of these sectors will accelerate. Tata Power, Adani Power, Indian Energy Exchange, Tata Motors, TVS Motors, Nagarjuna Fertilizer, IDFC are our top picks for 2022. In this, investors can expect 25% to 40% returns.