The Indian auto business continues to see divergent quantity tendencies throughout segments. We estimate that May wholesales, versus 2019, grew 22% for PVs, 39% for tractors and 4% for vehicles, however fell 28% for 2Ws. TTMT stood out with wholesales 82% above 2019; MM/MSIL had been 20-28% increased, AL/TVSL/EIM (RE) had been inside +/-2%, however BJAUT/HMCL had been 25-34% decrease. Compared to our estimates, volumes had been higher for HMCL/AL, decrease for BJAUT and in line for the remainder.
PVs doing properly: Passenger automobile (PV) business witnessed a great May with wholesales rising ~22% over May 2019. Comparisons to 2021 and 2020 are usually not very significant as Covid impacted volumes for the final two years. PV registrations had been additionally 11% increased than 2019.
Both Maruti and Mahindra talked about that volumes stay impacted by provide chain points. As per the seller affiliation, channel stock was flat m-o-m at 15-20 days in April and remained beneath the conventional stage of 4-5 weeks. Tata reported one other robust month with home PV wholesales at 3.5x of May 2019; its home PV volumes surpassed Hyundai (NC) for the second time within the final 6 months. Tata’s EV volumes grew 49% m-o-m. Mahindra’s SUVs had been additionally 29% increased than May 2019 whereas home wholesales for Maruti and Hyundai had been much like May 2019.2Ws comparatively weak however holding up: We estimate that home 2W wholesales, excluding Honda the place volumes are awaited, had been 28% beneath May 2019 however up 11% m-o-m (higher than the historic seasonality).
Retails adopted an identical pattern with May registrations down 14% versus May 2019. Domestic wholesales had been 53% beneath May 2019 for Bajaj, 19-27% decrease for TVS and HMCL and 11% decrease for Royal Enfield (RE). 2W exports declined c.11% y-o-y in May with volumes falling 15% for Bajaj and seven% for TVS. Strong month for tractors; vehicles first rate: Tractor business wholesales in May had been ~39% above 2019 whereas registrations had been 28% increased. Both Mahindra and Escorts highlighted rural sentiment is optimistic, pushed by good crop realisations and forecast of a traditional monsoon.
We estimate that truck business wholesales had been ~4% above May 2019, and the m-o-m decline was lower than the historic seasonality. Truck registrations within the month had been 6% beneath 2019; nonetheless, e-way payments, a measure of highway freight motion, remained robust with 28% y-o-y development in April (43% above April 2019).
Source: www.financialexpress.com”