The financial system grew by 0.1% in November, partly aided by the soccer World Cup, in accordance with official figures which name into query predictions the UK is already in recession.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed strain on demand from the results of excessive inflation however a lift from folks packing pubs and bars to observe occasions unfold on the pitch in Qatar.
Economists had predicted a adverse progress determine – of round 0.2%.
The determine for November got here on the again of a optimistic progress studying the earlier month, largely defined by exercise getting again to regular after disruption to output from the late Queen’s demise.
The extra financial institution vacation for the funeral in September noticed most companies shut.
The Bank of England is amongst public our bodies to have forecast that the UK fell into recession through the third quarter of 2022.
Should a studying by the ONS for the October to December interval present a adverse progress determine, then the financial system can have met the standards for recession: two consecutive quarters of contraction.
It appears the likelihood might be tight.
The ONS mentioned that gross home product (GDP) fell by 0.3% within the three months to November.
That incorporates the decline of 0.6% in output measured throughout September and the 0.5% restoration in October.
ONS director of financial statistics Darren Morgan mentioned: “The economy grew a little in November, with increases in telecommunications and computer programming helping to push the economy forward.
“Pubs and bars additionally did nicely as folks went out to observe World Cup video games.
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“This was partially offset by further falls in some manufacturing industries, including the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry, as well as falls in transport and postal, partially due to the impact of strikes.
“Over the final three months, nevertheless, the financial system nonetheless shrank – primarily because of the influence of the additional financial institution vacation for the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth in September.”
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the economy would need to shrink by 0.6% or more in December for the fourth quarter of 2022 to contract as a whole – triggering a technical recession.
The prospect of avoiding such a downturn is easing not only in the UK but across Europe and in the US too.
Business groups warned that many sectors were struggling – and needed the support of government to protect jobs as energy-led costs continue to stifle orders and investment.
Jonathan Moyes, head of investment research at the Wealth Club investor service, said of the UK’s prospects: “We have seen retailers report stronger than anticipated earnings experiences for This fall over the previous week, and it seems a stronger than anticipated shopper companies and companies extra broadly have helped the UK financial system defy gloomy expectations.
“It may be too soon to mark the beginning of a turn in sentiment for the UK, but a quiet consensus appears to be forming.
“Energy costs are falling sharply, China is reopening and rate of interest expectations have eased considerably,” he wrote.