Russian invasion of Ukraine and China's aggression over Taiwan threaten to create a world 'defined by danger', PM warns

Russia’s conflict in Ukraine and China’s aggression over Taiwan threaten to create a world “defined by danger, disorder and division”, the UK prime minister has warned.

Rishi Sunak predicted a “difficult and dangerous decade” as his authorities revealed a long-awaited replace to a main defence, safety and international coverage evaluate on Monday.

The 63-page doc signalled that the world confronted the most important threat in a long time of safety threats escalating, together with into “uncontrolled conflict” with nuclear weapons.

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The most rapid safety precedence was to deal with the menace posed by Russia’s conflict in Europe, the Integrated Review Refresh mentioned.

But it warned that any future conflict within the Indo-Pacific, the place tensions have elevated with China over Taiwan, might have “global consequences greater than the conflict in Ukraine“.

The paper didn’t change the basic assessments of the unique evaluate, revealed in 2021, earlier than Russia‘s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, however the language was starker.

Mr Sunak described the Chinese Communist Party as posing an “epoch-defining challenge”. It was beforehand described solely as a “systemic challenge”.

He additionally set out how Russian President Vladimir Putin’s conflict in Ukraine was an assault on UK and wider European safety.

The prime minister defined how the safety setting has modified over the previous two years, with threats and challenges intensifying.

“Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, weaponisation of energy and food supplies and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric, combined with China’s more aggressive stance in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, are threatening to create a world defined by danger, disorder and division – and an international order more favourable to authoritarianism,” he wrote in a foreword.

£3bn extra for nuclear weapons and submarine fleet

As a results of the evolving threats, Mr Sunak introduced an additional £3bn over the subsequent two years for the UK’s nuclear weapons and submarine fleet in addition to an additional £1.9bn for ammunition stockpiles.

The doc was launched forward of the federal government’s funds on Wednesday. It set out a plan to extend UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, up from simply over 2%, however with out setting a timeframe.

Warning of future threats, the evaluate mentioned: “There is a growing prospect that the international security environment will further deteriorate in the coming years, with state threats increasing and diversifying in Europe and beyond.

“The threat of escalation is larger than at any time in a long time, and an rising variety of superior weapons methods have been developed and are being examined or adopted.”

It raised concern in regards to the influence of a weakening in a set of arms management agreements between the United States and Russia.

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“The strategic stability mechanisms that helped in the 21st century to mitigate the risks of misunderstanding, miscalculation and unintended escalation have not developed at the pace needed to ensure that competition does not spill over into uncontrolled conflict,” the textual content mentioned.

It added: “Tensions in the Indo-Pacific are increasing and conflict there could have global consequences greater than the conflict in Ukraine.”

Warnings about Iran and North Korea

The Integrated Review Refresh additionally cautioned about an rising menace from Iran, which is advancing a nuclear weapons programme.

In addition, North Korea is “seeking to develop its nuclear capabilities while pursuing regionally destabilising activity through missile tests that threaten its neighbours”.

Much of the textual content reaffirmed and strengthened findings from the earlier evaluate.

But the 2023 replace additionally embody a particular part on UK coverage in the direction of China, balancing safety considerations with a need to have interaction with Beijing in areas of mutual curiosity corresponding to local weather change.

This nuanced approached might meet with criticism from sure members of the Conservative Party, together with former prime minister Liz Truss, who’ve been far more hawkish.

‘Grow considerations’ over China’s authorities

The evaluate talked about “growing concerns” over the actions of the Chinese authorities, together with its strengthening relationship with Russia regardless of the conflict in Ukraine.

It additionally highlighted how China has pursued “rapid and opaque military modernisation with huge new investments, militarised disputed islands in the South China Sea, and refused to renounce the use of force to achieve its objectives with regard to Taiwan“.

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Specifically on Taiwan, the UK reaffirmed its place that tensions over the self-governed island ought to be settled peacefully.

But Mr Sunak’s evaluate additionally targeted on the fact of Beijing’s dimension and significance. China accounts for being a fifth of the world financial system.

The textual content mentioned Britain would “engage constructively” with the Chinese authorities, enterprise and other people when it serves the nationwide curiosity however would take “robust action” to deal with any threats.