This winter components of the UK have already been hit by freezing temperatures and heavy snow – however a climate occasion anticipated to happen within the coming days has sparked fears the nation might quickly face an icy blast.
A serious sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occasion is “now likely”, in keeping with forecasters – and will deliver the return of bitterly chilly situations earlier than spring.
Sky News climate producer Chris England says “sudden stratospheric warmings can lead to colder conditions over parts of the Northern Hemisphere through their interaction with the jet stream”.
But he warned these excessive strain techniques that are shaped feeding chilly air down from the north and east are usually not assured.
What is a sudden stratospheric warming occasion?
SSW describes an occasion when “rapid warming occurs high up in the stratosphere”, in keeping with the Met Office, however it might have penalties in our climate down on the floor within the weeks that comply with.
This speedy warming within the stratosphere – between round 10km and 50km above the earth’s floor – is so excessive we do not really feel it on the bottom.
The occasion follows a weakening of winds in what’s known as the stratospheric polar vortex, excessive over the Arctic.
“The cold air then descends very rapidly in the polar vortex and this causes the temperature in the stratosphere to rise very rapidly, as much as 50C over only a few days; hence the term sudden stratospheric warming,” the Met Office says.
This occasion can affect the form of the jet stream because the chilly air sinks – generally resulting in a protracted spell of dry, chilly climate throughout the UK and northern Europe.
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Does it occur yearly and can it occur this 12 months?
SSW would not occur yearly, and when it does, it would not all the time affect our climate.
According to Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting on the Met Office, “there is now over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring” this 12 months.
The UK has been hit by excessive winter snow occasions lately, for instance the so-called Beast from the East – which occurred in 2018.
But simply because a lot of Britain was coated in snow again then resulting from a hyperlink with a SSW occasion – it doesn’t suggest it can occur once more this 12 months.
What might it imply for the UK’s climate and when?
As talked about, a significant SSW occasion could be linked to freezing temperatures akin to those seen in 2018 – however there aren’t any ensures.
Prof Scaife says: “Although the impact will become clearer nearer the time, any effect on UK weather is most likely to occur in late February and March.”
Sky’s England provides: “Other factors such as the distribution of warm and cold areas across the globe also have an influence.
“When they do develop they might push the chilly climate throughout different components of the world, e.g. China, North America, quite than Europe.
“And even when Europe is impacted, relatively small changes may mean that central and eastern Europe bear the brunt of the cold.”
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So can the UK financial institution on heavy snow falling within the subsequent few weeks?
In quick, no.
Unfortunately, it is too early to inform how climate forecasts will change following a SSW occasion.
Current forecasts “are not showing any major cold snap for the UK as a result of the current SSW”, England says.
“That doesn’t mean we won’t have cold spells – it’s cold now, after all, but that’s due to the normal progression of high and low pressure systems and nothing to do with an SSW.”
Source: information.sky.com”