A stringent lockdown was imposed in India to prevent the growing cases of Coronavirus infection which had an impact on the economy. It may take some time to recover from the shock that has hit the Indian economy due to the epidemic. According to the recent Economic Outlook report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the same picture is coming out. According to this IMF report, in this calendar year 2020 (January to December), India will fall per capita GDP even below Bangladesh. This would be due to the bad effect of the lockdown.
Unlike India, Bangladesh’s per capita GDP increases
According to the IMF report, India’s Per Capita GDP may fall by 10.3 per cent this calendar year, while in Bangladesh this figure will not fall. IMF believes that this year per capita GDP in Bangladesh may increase by 4 percent. For some time, India was ahead of Bangladesh in terms of capit GDP but the increasing exports of Bangladesh reduced the growing gap of both countries.
Indian economy in worst phase after 1990-91
According to the IMF report, if this time the performance of the economy remains that only Pakistan and Nepal will be left behind by India. Apart from this, other countries of South Asia, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh will be ahead of India. The projection of IMF is worse than the projection made by RBI. The RBI has predicted a 9.5 percent shrinkage in the economy this financial year. Apart from this, the World Bank has also predicted a 9.6 percent fall in this financial year. The World Bank has called the situation in India the worst ever. According to IMF, the Indian economy is going through the biggest crisis since 1990-91.
The most declining country after Spain and Italy
This year, India’s per capita GDP will fall by 10.3 percent, which is the third-largest decline worldwide after Spain and Italy. Apart from this, it is the biggest decline in developing and emerging economies. Talking about China, there may be a decline of 5.7 percent whereas IMF had said a 5 percent fall in June. The economy of India and Indonesia depends on tourism and commodities as well as on remittances (income sent abroad by Indians working abroad) and external financial sources. All these have had a bad effect on the epidemic caused by the corona virus. IMF says that it will be a tough challenge to rescue them.
India will beat Bangladesh in next calendar year
This year India will lag behind Bangladesh with per capita GDP, but next year the IMF report is positive. According to the report, next year India’s per capita GDP will grow at a rate of 8.2 percent but Bangladesh’s per capita GDP will grow at a rate of 5.4 percent.