A COVID-style plan for coping with hen flu is being drawn up by well being officers, modelling what would occur if the virus begins spreading between people.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) says there’s “no evidence so far that the virus is getting better at infecting humans or other mammals” however warned the excessive degree of transmission in birds presents a “constant risk“.
To make certain the nation is ready for a potential hen flu outbreak in people, well being officers are modelling eventualities of human transmission.
It comes after an 11-year-old lady in Cambodia died from hen flu. The lady’s father additionally examined constructive for the virus however it’s unclear whether or not he caught the virus from his daughter or via contact with an contaminated hen.
At least 11 different folks within the nation have additionally been examined.
If that is an instance of human-to-human transmission, it might be one of many first situations of that taking place.
There has been some proof of individuals catching the virus from members of the family or in healthcare setting, the UKHSA mentioned, however no or little proof of “sustained” transmission between people.
The UKHSA is modelling what occurs if that adjustments, taking a look at two eventualities: a gentle situation the place the infection-fatality fee is just like COVID, at about 0.25%, and a extra extreme situation just like the 1918 flu pandemic, the place about 2.5% of people that caught the virus died.
That would imply underneath the gentle situation, one in 400 folks with the virus would die, and underneath the extreme situation one in 40 contaminated folks would die.
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Even with a reasonably low infection-fatality fee, a extreme situation may result in “significant behavioural differences relative to the recent pandemic experience”, the UKHSA mentioned.
In mild of the modelling, the UKHSA is taking a look at the way it may detect outbreaks in people, together with utilizing COVID-style lateral move assessments.
It can also be growing a blood take a look at that detects antibodies towards the virus and evaluation of the genetic mutations that might sign an elevated danger to human well being.
The world’s main consultants on influenza will meet on Friday to debate the specter of hen flu to people.
The group of scientists, regulators and vaccine producers meets twice a yr to resolve which pressure of seasonal flu to incorporate within the vaccine for the upcoming winter season.
This assembly will even handle the danger of the virus spilling over to people and inflicting a pandemic.
The virus has already jumped from birds to otters, foxes and cats, whereas an outbreak at a mink farm prompted fears the virus was spreading between animals.
“We are more prepared (than for COVID), but even if we are more prepared, we are not yet prepared enough,” Sylvie Briand, WHO director of worldwide infectious hazard preparedness, mentioned forward of the assembly.
“We need to really continue the efforts for a flu pandemic.”
Source: information.sky.com”